Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.     

Electrical conductivity of the plagioclase–NaCl–water system and its implication for the high conductivity anomalies in the mid-lower crust of Tibet Plateau

In order to investigate the origin of the high conductivity anomalies geophysically observed in the mid-lower crust of Tibet Plateau, the electrical conductivity of plagioclase–NaCl–water system was measured at 1.2 GPa and 400–900 K. The relationship between electrical conductivity and temperature follows the Arrhenius law. The bulk conductivity increases with the fluid fraction and salinity, but is almost independent of temperature (activation enthalpy less than 0.1 eV). The conductivity of plagioclase–NaCl–water system is much lower than that of albite–NaCl–water system with similar fluid fraction and salinity, indicating a strong effect of the major mineral phase on the bulk conductivity of the brine-bearing system. The high conductivity anomalies of 10^?1 and 10⁰ S/m observed in the mid-lower crust of Tibet Plateau can be explained by the aqueous fluid with a volume fraction of 1 and 9%, respectively, if the fluid salinity is 25%. The anomaly value of 10^?1 S/m can be explained by the aqueous fluid with a volume fraction of 6% if the salinity is 10%. In case of Southern Tibet where the heat flow is high, the model of a thin layer of brine-bearing aqueous fluid with a high salinity overlying a thick layer of partial melt is most likely to prevail.     

Element Mobility During Incipient Granulite Formation at Kabbaldurga, Southern India

At Kabbaldurga, infiltration of carbonic fluids along a systemof ductile shears and foliation planes has led to partial transformationof Archaean grey biotite–hornblende gneiss to coarse-grainedmassive charnockite at about 2.5 b.y. ago. The dehydration ofthe gneiss assemblage was induced by a marked metasomatic changeof the reacting system from granodioritic to granitic, and obviouslytook place under conditions of an open system at 700–750?C and 5–7 kb. Extensive replacement of plagioclase (An_16–30)by K-feldspar through Na, Ca–K exchange reactions withthe ascending carbonic fluids led to strong enrichment in K,Rb, Ba, and SiO₂, and to a depletion in Ca. Progressive dissolutionof hornblende, biotite, magnetite, and the accessory mineralsapatite and zircon resulted in a marked depletion in Fe, Mg,Ti, Zn, V, P, and Zr. Most important is the recognition of REEmobility: with advancing charnockitization, the moderately fractionatedREE distribution patterns of the grey gneisses (La_N270; La_N/Yb_N= 5–20; Eu_N27; Eu/Eu^* = 0.6–0.3) give way to stronglyfractionated REE patterns with a positive Eu-anomaly (La_N200;La_N/Yb_N = 20–80; Eu_N22; Eu/Eu^* = 0.6–1.8). The systematicdepletion especially in the HREE is due to the progressive dissolutionof zircon, apatite (and monazite), which strongly concentratethe REE. Stable isotope data (¹⁸O of 6.9–8.0 per mille for gneissesand charnockites; ¹³C of –8.5 and –6.5 per millefor late carbonate) indicate a magmatogenic source for the carbonicfluids. In contrast to the currently favoured derivation ofcarbonic fluids by decarbonation of the upper mantle or degassingof underplated basaltic intrusions, it is discussed here thatabundant fluid inclusions in lower crustal charnockites providedan extensive reservoir of ‘fossil’ carbonic fluids.Shear deformation has tapped this reservoir and generated thechannel-ways for fluid ascent. Charnockitization of the Kabbaldurgatypethus appears to be a metasomatic process which is tectonicallycontrolled and restricted to the crustal level of the amphiboliteto granulite transition.     

2003年民乐-山丹6.1、5.8级地震灾害损失评估

2003年10月25日在甘肃省民乐-山丹交界处相继发生MS6.1和MS5.8地震,造成10人死亡、46人受伤,近5万人失去住所;村镇民用房屋、水利、生命线工程和学校、卫生院所等公共设施严重破坏。震后采用抽样调查、单项调查、填表调查核实的方法,取得了大量的实际资料,将灾区合理的划分为3个评估区,建立了每个评估区的每类建筑物的破坏比、损失比和基础数据资料,分10个专项进行统计分析,通过计算得出了本次地震灾害的经济损失结果。     

A high order Godunov scheme with constrained transport and adaptive mesh refinement for astrophysical and geophysical MHD

We propose to extend the well-known MUSCL-Hancock scheme for Euler equations to the induction equation modeling the magnetic field evolution in kinematic dynamo problems. The scheme is based on an integral form of the underlying conservation law which, in our formulation, results in a “finite-surface” scheme for the induction equation. This naturally leads to the well-known “constrained transport” method, with additional continuity requirement on the magnetic field representation. The second ingredient in the MUSCL scheme is the predictor step that ensures second order accuracy both in space and time. We explore specific constraints that the mathematical properties of the induction equations place on this predictor step, showing that three possible variants can be considered. We show that the most aggressive formulations reach the same level of accuracy than the other ones, at a lower computational cost. More interestingly, these schemes are compatible with the Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) framework. It has been implemented in the AMR code RAMSES. It offers a novel and efficient implementation of a second order scheme for the induction equation. The scheme is then adaptated to solve for the full MHD equations using the same methodology. Through a series of test problems, we illustrate the performances of this new code using two different MHD Riemann solvers (Lax–Friedrich and Roe) and the need of the Adaptive Mesh Refinement capabilities in some cases. Finally, we show its versatility by applying it to the ABC dynamo problem and to the collapse of a magnetized cloud core.     

Improving at-site flood frequency analysis with additional spatial information: a probabilistic regional envelope curve approach

Extreme flood events have detrimental effects on society, the economy and the environment. Widespread flooding across South East Queensland in 2011 and 2013 resulted in the loss of lives and significant cost to the economy. In this region, flood risk planning and the use of traditional flood frequency analysis (FFA) to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of the 1-in-100 year flood is severely limited by short gauging station records. On average, these records are 42 years in Eastern Australia and many have a poor representation of extreme flood events. The major aim of this study is to test the application of an alternative method to estimate flood frequency in the form of the Probabilistic Regional Envelope Curve (PREC) approach which integrates additional spatial information of extreme flood events. In order to better define and constrain a working definition of an extreme flood, an Australian Envelope Curve is also produced from available gauging station data. Results indicate that the PREC method shows significant changes to the larger recurrence intervals (≥100 years) in gauges with either too few, or too many, extreme flood events. A decision making process is provided to ascertain when this method is preferable for FFA.     

Application of matrix analysis in delineating sinkhole risk areas along highway (I-70 near Frederick,Maryland)

Sinkhole collapse in the area of Maryland Interstate 70 (I-70) and nearby roadways south of Frederick, Maryland, has been posing a threat to the safety of the highway operation as well as other structures. The occurrence of sinkholes is associated with intensive land development. However, the geological conditions that have been developing over the past 200 million years in the Frederick Valley control the locations of the sinkholes. Within an area of approximately 8 km², 138 sinkholes are recorded and their spatial distribution is irregular, but clustered. The clustering indicates the existence of an interaction between the sinkholes. The point pattern of sinkholes is considered to be a sample of a Gibbsian point process from which the hard-core Strauss Model is developed. The radius of influence is calculated for the recorded sinkholes which are most likely to occur within 30 m of an existing sinkhole. The stochastic analysis of the existing sinkholes is biased toward the areas with intensive land use. This bias is adjusted by considering (1) topography, (2) proximity to topographic depressions, (3) interpreted rock formation, (4) soil type, (5) geophysical anomalies, (6) proximity to geologic structures, and (7) thickness of overburden. Based on the properties of each factor, a scoring system is developed and the average relative risk score for individual 30-m segments of the study area is calculated. The areas designated by higher risk levels would have greater risk of a sinkhole collapse than the areas designated by lower risk levels. This risk assessment approach can be updated as more information becomes available.     

Deep structure and kinematics of the Northern Calcareous Alps (TRANSALP Profile)

The Northern Calcareous Alps (NCA) of southern Bavaria and northern Tyrol constitute a carbonate-dominated polyphase fold-thrust wedge; together with its Grauwacken Zone Basement, it is the northernmost part of the far-travelled Upper Austroalpine thrust complex of the Eastern Alps. The present geometry developed in several kinematic stages. Jurassic extensional faults that affected large parts of the NCA and their basement originated when the main part of the NCA was still located southeast of the Central Alpine Ötztal-Silvretta complex. These faults and related facies transitions influenced the later style of detachment of the NCA thrust sheets. Mid to Late Cretaceous detachment, thrust-sheet stacking and motion over the Central Alpine complex are registered in clastic deposits of syntectonic basins. The latest Cretaceous to Cenozoic NNE- to N-directed motion of the NCA towards Europe in front of the Central Alpine complex created another set of significant contraction structures, which at depth overprinted all previous structures. During Cretaceous to Cenozoic deformation, the NCA experienced about 80 km of shortening, i.e., about 73% along the TRANSALP Profile. The European basement and autochthonous Mesozoic cover beneath the allochthonous NCA thrust sheets and flysch complexes seem to have remained relatively undeformed.     

Stability analysis of an ancient landslide considering shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil

In this paper, the stability of an ancient landslide during the first impounding of a nearby reservoir is investigated through the analyses of the shear strength reduction behavior of slip zone soil. In view of the experimental observations, an empirical strain-dependent soil model is established and is then incorporated in finite element analyses. The numerical analysis results show that the failing sections progressively develop due to the soil strength declines from peak toward residual, and the shear zone propagates within the front slope. It is demonstrated in the numerical results that the toe weighting measure has a significant effect on restraining the shear displacements of the soils and preventing the progressive failure of the landslide. The field observations further confirmed the stability condition of the reinforced landslide.