Forecasting Groundwater Temperature with Linear Regression Models Using Historical Data

Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse‐gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario employed.     

Multi‐dimensional analyses of the SEAM controlled source electromagnetic data—the story of a blind test of interpretation workflows

Using a subset of the SEG Advanced Modeling Program Phase I controlled‐source electromagnetic data, we apply our standard controlled‐source electromagnetic interpretation workflows to delineate a simulated hydrocarbon reservoir. Experience learned from characterizing such a complicated model offers us an opportunity to refine our workflows to achieve better interpretation quality. The exercise proceeded in a blind test style, where the interpreting geophysicists did not know the true resistivity model until the end of the project. Rather, the interpreters were provided a traditional controlled‐source electromagnetic data package, including electric field measurements, interpreted seismic horizons, and well log data. Based on petrophysical analysis, a background resistivity model was established first. Then, the interpreters started with feasibility studies to establish the recoverability of the prospect and carefully stepped through 1D, 2.5D, and 3D inversions with seismic and well log data integrated at each stage. A high‐resistivity zone is identified with 1D analysis and further characterized with 2.5D inversions. Its lateral distribution is confirmed with a 3D anisotropic inversion. The importance of integrating all available geophysical and petrophysical data to derive more accurate interpretation is demonstrated.     

Connecting Satellite Observations with Water Cycle Variables Through Land Data Assimilation: Examples Using the NASA GEOS-5 LDAS

A land data assimilation system (LDAS) can merge satellite observations (or retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, satellite observations do not correspond directly to the water cycle variables of interest. The present paper addresses various aspects of this seeming mismatch using examples drawn from recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-5 LDAS. These aspects include (1) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (2) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (3) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based soil moisture and snow assimilation, and (4) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable that is not observed (such as root zone soil moisture). The solution to these challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.     

Authigenic carbonate mineral formation in the Pagassitikos palaeolake during the latest Pleistocene, central Greece

The Pagassitikos Gulf in Greece is a semi-enclosed bay with a maximum depth of 102 m. According to the present-day bathymetric configuration and the sea level during the latest Pleistocene, the gulf would have been isolated from the open sea, forming a palaeolake since ~32 cal. ka b.p. Sediment core B-4 was recovered from the deepest sector of the gulf and revealed evidence of a totally different depositional environment in the lowest part of the core: this contained light grey-coloured sediments, contrasting strongly with overlying olive grey muds. Multi-proxy analyses showed the predominance of carbonate minerals (aragonite, dolomite and calcite) and gypsum in the lowest part of the core. Carbonate mineral deposition can be attributed to autochthonous precipitation that took place in a saline palaeolake with high evaporation rates during the last glacial–early deglacial period; the lowest core sample to be AMS ¹⁴C dated provided an age of 19.53 cal. ka b.p. The palaeolake was presumably reconnected to the open sea at ~13.2 cal. ka b.p. during the last sea-level rise, marking the commencement of marine sedimentation characterised by the predominance of terrigenous aluminosilicates and fairly constant depositional conditions lasting up to the present day.     

The northern boundary of the Jan Mayen microcontinent, North Atlantic determined from ocean bottom seismic, multichannel seismic, and gravity data

The Jan Mayen microcontinent was as a result of two major North Atlantic evolutionary cornerstones—the separation of Greenland from Norway (~54 Ma), accompanied by voluminous volcanic activity, and the jump of spreading from the Aegir to the Kolbeinsey ridge (~33 Ma), which resulted in the separation of the microcontinent itself from Eastern Greenland (~24 Ma). The resulting eastern and western sides of the Jan Mayen microcontinent are respectively volcanic and non-volcanic rifted margins. Until now the northern boundary of the microcontinent was not precisely known. In order to locate this boundary, two combined refraction and reflection seismic profiles were acquired in 2006: one trending S–N and consisting of two separate segments south and north of the island of Jan Mayen respectively, and the second one trending SW–NE east of the island. Crustal P-wave velocity models were derived and constrained using gravity data collected during the same expedition. North of the West Jan Mayen Fracture Zone (WJMFZ) the models show oceanic crust that thickens from west to east. This thickening is explained by an increase in volcanic activity expressed as a bathymetric high and most likely related to the proximity of the Mohn ridge. East of the island and south of the WJMFZ, oceanic Layers 2 and 3 have normal seismic velocities but above normal average crustal thickness (~11 km). The similarity of the crustal thickness and seismic velocities to those observed on the conjugate M?re margin confirm the volcanic origin of the eastern side of the microcontinent. Thick continental crust is observed in the southern parts of both profiles. The northern boundary of the microcontinent is a continuation of the northern lineament of the East Jan Mayen Fracture Zone. It is thus located farther north than previously assumed. The crust in the middle parts of both models, around Jan Mayen island, is more enigmatic as the data suggest two possible interpretations—Icelandic type of oceanic crust or thinned and heavily intruded continental crust. We prefer the first interpretation but the latter cannot be completely ruled out. We infer that the volcanism on Jan Mayen is related to the Icelandic plume.     

An integrated geophysical study of Vestbakken Volcanic Province, western Barents Sea continental margin, and adjacent oceanic crust

This paper describes results from a geophysical study in the Vestbakken Volcanic Province, located on the central parts of the western Barents Sea continental margin, and adjacent oceanic crust in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. The results are derived mainly from interpretation and modeling of multichannel seismic, ocean bottom seismometer and land station data along a regional seismic profile. The resulting model shows oceanic crust in the western parts of the profile. This crust is buried by a thick Cenozoic sedimentary package. Low velocities in the bottom of this package indicate overpressure. The igneous oceanic crust shows an average thickness of 7.2 km with the thinnest crust (5–6 km) in the southwest and the thickest crust (8–9 km) close to the continent-ocean boundary (COB). The thick oceanic crust is probably related to high mantle temperatures formed by brittle weakening and shear heating along a shear system prior to continental breakup. The COB is interpreted in the central parts of the profile where the velocity structure and Bouguer anomalies change significantly. East of the COB Moho depths increase while the vertical velocity gradient decreases. Below the assumed center for Early Eocene volcanic activity the model shows increased velocities in the crust. These increased crustal velocities are interpreted to represent Early Eocene mafic feeder dykes. East of the zone of volcanoes velocities in the crust decrease and sedimentary velocities are observed at depths of more than 10 km. The amount of crustal intrusions is much lower in this area than farther west. East of the Kn?legga Fault crystalline basement velocities are brought close to the seabed. This fault marks the eastern limit of thick Cenozoic and Mesozoic packages on central parts of the western Barents Sea continental margin.     

Exploring the impact of diagenesis on (isotope) geochemical and microstructural alteration features in biogenic aragonite

For the Quaternary and Neogene, aragonitic biogenic and abiogenic carbonates are frequently exploited as archives of their environment. Conversely, pre‐Neogene aragonite is often diagenetically altered and calcite archives are studied instead. Nevertheless, the exact sequence of diagenetic processes and products is difficult to disclose from naturally altered material. Here, experiments were performed to understand biogenic aragonite alteration processes and products. Shell subsamples of the bivalve Arctica islandica were exposed to hydrothermal alteration. Thermal boundary conditions were set at 100°C, 175°C and 200°C. These comparably high temperatures were chosen to shorten experimental durations. Subsamples were exposed to different ¹⁸O‐depleted fluids for durations between two and twenty weeks. Alteration was documented using X‐ray diffraction, cathodoluminescence, fluorescence and scanning electron microscopy, as well as conventional and clumped isotope analyses. Experiments performed at 100°C show redistribution and darkening of organic matter, but lack evidence for diagenetic alteration, except in Δ₄₇ which show the effects of annealing processes. At 175°C, valves undergo significant aragonite to calcite transformation and neomorphism. The δ¹⁸O signature supports transformation via dissolution and reprecipitation, but isotopic exchange is limited by fluid migration through the subsamples. Individual growth increments in these subsamples exhibit bright orange luminescence. At 200°C, valves are fully transformed to calcite and exhibit purple‐blue luminescence with orange bands. The δ¹⁸O and Δ₄₇ signatures reveal exchange with the aqueous fluid, whereas δ¹³C remains unaltered in all experiments, indicating a carbonate‐buffered system. Clumped isotope temperatures in high‐temperature experiments show compositions in broad agreement with the measured temperature. Experimentally induced alteration patterns are comparable with individual features present in Pleistocene shells. This study represents a significant step towards sequential analysis of diagenetic features in biogenic aragonites and sheds light on reaction times and threshold limits. The limitations of a study restricted to a single test organism are acknowledged and call for refined follow‐up experiments.     

Analysing Debris-Flow Impact Models, Based on a Small Scale Modelling Approach

The objective of this study is to analyse adaptable debris-flow impact models, which are very important for mitigation measurements and buildings using their sphere of influence. For this reason, 16 debris-flow experiments, on a small-scale modelling approach, were performed. Impact forces were measured with a force plate panel, consisting of 24 aluminium devices, coaxially mounted with resistance strain gauges. Flow velocities, flow heights as well as horizontal impact forces were sampled with a frequency of 2.4 kHz. Sub datasets of sampled raw force data were defined by applying an average median filter, a low-pass filter routine. Further, estimated peak pressure values as well as empirical coefficients of hydraulic impact models were compared, and the influence of signal processing is discussed.     

An approach for the determination of precipitation input for worst-case flood modelling

ABSTRACT

There is a lack of suitable methods for creating precipitation scenarios that can be used to realistically estimate peak discharges with very low probabilities. On the one hand, existing methods are methodically questionable when it comes to physical system boundaries. On the other hand, the spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation patterns as system input is limited. In response, this paper proposes a method of deriving spatio-temporal precipitation patterns and presents a step towards making methodically correct estimations of infrequent floods by using a worst-case approach. A Monte Carlo approach allows for the generation of a wide range of different spatio-temporal distributions of an extreme precipitation event that can be tested with a rainfall–runoff model that generates a hydrograph for each of these distributions. Out of these numerous hydrographs and their corresponding peak discharges, the physically plausible spatio-temporal distributions that lead to the highest peak discharges are identified and can eventually be used for further investigations.

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate editor E. Volpi