Risk acceptance criterion for tanker oil spill risk reduction measures

This paper is aimed at investigating whether there is ample support for the view that the acceptance criterion for evaluating measures for prevention of oil spills from tankers should be based on cost-effectiveness considerations. One such criterion can be reflected by the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS) whereas its target value is updated by elaborating the inherent uncertainties of oil spill costs and establishing a value for the criterion’s assurance factor. To this end, a value of $80,000/t is proposed as a sensible CATS criterion and the proposed value for the assurance factor F = 1.5 is supported by the retrieved Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs’ Annual Reports. It is envisaged that this criterion would allow the conversion of direct and indirect costs into a non-market value for the optimal allocation of resources between the various parties investing in shipping. A review of previous cost estimation models on oil spills is presented and a probability distribution (log-normal) is fitted on the available oil spill cost data, where it should be made abundantly clear that the mean value of the distribution is used for deriving the updated CATS criterion value. However, the difference between the initial and the updated CATS criterion in the percentiles of the distribution is small. It is found through the current analysis that results are partly lower than the predicted values from the published estimation models. The costs are also found to depend on the type of accident, which is in agreement with the results of previous studies. Other proposals on acceptance criteria are reviewed and it is asserted that the CATS criterion can be considered as the best candidate. Evidence is provided that the CATS approach is practical and meaningful by including examples of successful applications in actual risk assessments. Finally, it is suggested that the criterion may be refined subject to more readily available cost data and experience gained from future decisions.     

Dolomite Controls on Phanerozoic Seawater Chemistry

We investigate the potential role of dolomite as a long-term buffer on Phanerozoic seawater composition. Using a comprehensive model of Phanerozoic geochemical cycling, we show how variations in the formation rate of sedimentary marine dolomite have buffered seawater saturation state. The total inventory of inorganic carbon reflects the sum of fluxes derived from continental weathering, basalt-seawater exchange, alumino-silicate diagenesis (reverse weathering), and global deposition of calcium carbonate. Although these fluxes are approximately balanced, model results indicate that seawater saturation state is sensitive to the marine dolomite depositional flux. This conclusion is consistent with and constrained by independent proxy data for seawater ion ratios, paleo-atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and paleo-pH data, and dolomite mass-age distribution through Phanerozoic time. Abundant research indicates that dolomite’s occurrence in marine sediments is sensitive to many factors: temperature, seawater composition, paleogeographic setting, continental organization, etc. Although the complexity of the process of dolomite formation prevents a complete understanding of the relative role of these factors, our model results clearly underscore the importance of this mineral in the chemical history of Phanerozoic seawater.     

Computations with finite element methods for the Brinkman problem

Various finite element families for the Brinkman flow (or Stokes–Darcy flow) are tested numerically. Particularly, the effect of small permeability is studied. The tested finite elements are the MINI element, the Taylor–Hood element, and the stabilized equal order methods. The numerical tests include both a priori analysis and adaptive methods.     

Tentative kinetic model for dolomite precipitation rate and its application to dolomite distribution

The dolomite problem has a long history and remains one of the most intensely studied and debated topics in geology. Major amounts of dolomite are not directly forming today from seawater. This observation has led many investigators to develop geochemical/hydrologic models for dolomite formation in diagenetic environments. A fundamental limitation of the current models for the growth of sedimentary dolomite is the dearth of kinetic information for this phase, in contrast to that available for calcite and aragonite.We present a simple kinetic model describing dolomite growth as a function of supersaturation using data from published high temperature synthesis experiments and our own experimental results. This model is similar in form to empirical models used to describe precipitation and dissolution rates of other carbonate minerals. Despite the considerable uncertainties and assumptions implicit in this approach, the model satisfies a basic expectation of classical precipitation theory, i.e., that the distance from equilibrium is a basic driving force for reaction rate. The calculated reaction order is high (~ 3), and the combined effect of high order and large activation energy produces a very strong dependence of the rate on temperature and the degree of supersaturation of aqueous solutions with respect to this phase.Using the calculated parameters, we applied the model to well-documented case studies of sabkha dolomite at Abu Dhabi (Persian Gulf), and organogenic dolomite from the Gulf of California. Growth rates calculated from the model agree with independent estimates of the age of these dolomites to well within an order of magnitude. A comparison of precipitation rates in seawater also shows the rate of dolomite precipitation to converge strongly with that of calcite with increasing temperature. If correct, this result implies that dolomite may respond to relatively modest warming of surface environments by substantial increases in accumulation rate, and suggests that the distribution of sedimentary dolomite in the rock record may be to some extent a temperature signal.     

New safety issues when moving from liquid fuels to natural gas

Natural gas (NG) is produced whenever organic matter is decomposed in the absence of oxygen. The main constituent of natural gas is methane. In contrast to liquid fuels, methane has a boiling point far below normal ambient temperatures. Even the critical temperature is well below ambient. Therefore natural gas must be stored either as compressed natural gas (CNG) at very high pressures at ambient temperatures, or as liquefied natural gas (LNG) at very low temperatures. The basic safety issues are caused by loss of confinement of either CNG or LNG. In both cases the issues are: global greenhouse effects of natural gas (methane); local fire and explosion hazards; and local asphyxiation hazard due to reduced oxygen content in the atmosphere breathed when air is mixed with methane.     

Solar signals in global climatic change

Based on the physical background that varying solar activity should lead to variations of the ‘solar constant’ and that the climate system may respond sensitively even to small solar variations, a correlation analysis is performed where hemispheric and global averages of the annual mean surface air temperature are compared with the variations of a variety of solar forcing parameters: sunspots, related hypotheses including variations of the quasi-eleven-year solar cycle length, solar diameter variations and gravitational effects. This analysis is based on the 1881–1988 period, for the northern hemisphere including proxy data 1671–1988. Cross correlations and correlations moving in time reveal some instability effects which are hard to interpret. The temperature variance components which may be hypothetically explained by solar forcing are small. Similarly, a seasonal and regional signal and signal-to-noise analysis based on a gridded temperature time series 1890–1985 reveals small signals which do not exceed roughly 1.5 K in the arctic winter (maximum) or 0.2-0.3 K on a global average.     

Time of maximum Late Wisconsin glaciation, West Coast of Canada

New data from a deep-sea core in the eastern North Pacific Ocean indicate that the western margin of the Late Wisconsin Cordilleran Ice Sheet began to retreat from its maximum position after 15,600 yr B.P. Ice-rafted detritus is present in the core below the 15,600 yr B.P. level and was deposited while lobes of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet advanced across the continental shelf in Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait, and Dixon Entrance. The core data are complemented by stratigraphic evidence and radiocarbon ages from Quaternary exposures bordering Hecate Strait and Dixon Entrance. These indicate that piedmont lobes reached the east and north shores of Graham Island (part of the Queen Charlotte Islands) between about 23,000 and 21,000 yr B.P. Sometime thereafter, but before 15,000–16,000 yr B.P., these glaciers achieved their greatest Late Wisconsin extent. Radiocarbon ages of late-glacial and postglacial sediments from Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait, and adjacent land areas show that deglaciation began in these areas before 15,000 yr B.P. and that the shelf was completely free of ice by 13,000 yr B.P.     

Between carbonatite and lamproite—Diamondiferous Torngat ultramafic lamprophyres formed by carbonate-fluxed melting of cratonic MARID-type metasomes

New U-Pb perovskite ages reveal that diamondiferous ultramafic lamprophyre magmas erupted through the Archean crust of northern Labrador and Quebec (eastern Canada) between ca. 610 and 565 Ma, a period of strong rifting activity throughout contiguous Laurentia and Baltica. The observed Torngat carbonate-rich aillikite/carbonatite and carbonate-poor mela-aillikite dyke varieties show a large spread in Sr-Nd-Hf-Pb isotope ratios with pronounced correlations between isotope systems. An isotopically depleted component is identified solely within aillikites (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70323-0.70377; εNd_i = +1.2-+1.8; εHf_i = +1.4-+3.5; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 18.2-18.5), whereas some aillikites and all mela-aillikites range to more enriched isotope signatures (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.70388-0.70523; εNd_i = −0.5 to −3.9; εHf_i = −0.6 to −6.0; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb_i = 17.8-18.2). These contrasting isotopic characteristics of aillikites/carbonatites and mela-aillikites, along with subtle differences in their modal carbonate, SiO₂, Al₂O₃, Na₂O, Cs-Rb, and Zr-Hf contents, are consistent with two distinctive metasomatic assemblages of different age in the mantle magma source region.Integration of petrologic, geochemical, and isotopic information leads us to propose that the isotopically enriched component originated from a reduced phlogopite-richterite-Ti-oxide dominated source assemblage that is reminiscent of MARID suite xenoliths. In contrast, the isotopically depleted component was derived from a more oxidized phlogopite-carbonate dominated source assemblage. We argue that low-degree CO₂-rich potassic silicate melts from the convective upper mantle were preferentially channelled into an older, pre-existing MARID-type vein network at the base of the North Atlantic craton lithosphere, where they froze to form new phlogopite-carbonate dominated veins. Continued stretching and thinning of the cratonic lithosphere during the Late Neoproterozoic remobilized the carbonate-rich vein material and induced volatile-fluxed fusion of the MARID-type veins and the cold peridotite substrate. Isotopic modelling suggests that only 5-12% trace element contribution from such geochemically extreme MARID-type material is required to produce the observed compositional shift from the isotopically most depleted aillikites/carbonatites towards enriched mela-aillikites.We conclude that cold cratonic mantle lithosphere can host several generations of contrasting vein assemblages, and that each may have formed during past tectonic and magmatic events under distinctively different physicochemical conditions. Although cratonic MARID-type and carbonate-bearing veins in peridotite can be the respective sources for lamproite and carbonatite magmas when present as the sole metasome, their concomitant fusion in a complex source region may give rise to a whole new variety of deep volatile-rich magmas and we suggest that orangeites (formerly Group 2 kimberlites), kamafugites, and certain types of ultramafic lamprophyre are formed in this manner.