‘Bond cycles’ recorded in terrestrial Pleistocene sediments of southwestern British Columbia,Canada

Recent data from exposures of terrestrial Pleistocene sediments in the Fraser Lowland of southwestern British Columbia reveal at least two ‘Bond cycles’ within Oxygen Isotope Stage 2. The maximum of the Coquitlam Stade coincides with the timing of Heinrich event H2, the Port Moody Interstade with Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) interstade 2, the maximum of the Vashon Stade with H1, and the Fort Langley interval with D–O interstade 1. The Sumas Stade apparently preceded H0 (Younger Dryas) but could have been in response to the same climatic signal. The timing of Sumas advances may be explained by a combination of glacio-isostatic rebound, destabilisation of the ice margin, and rapid movement over a short distance on soft muddy beds of a rising sea floor, thereby leading the timing of North Atlantic events by hundreds of years. In contrast, Coquitlam and Vashon advances were mainly over permeable glaciofluvial sediments and because of this their maxima probably did not precede the timing of H2 and H1. The Port Moody Interstade coincided with the global Last Glacial Maximum, due in part to the moderating effect of moist summer storms in a southward-shifted jet stream that influenced the Fraser Lowland at that time. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting Groundwater Temperature with Linear Regression Models Using Historical Data

Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse‐gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario employed.     

Multi‐dimensional analyses of the SEAM controlled source electromagnetic data—the story of a blind test of interpretation workflows

Using a subset of the SEG Advanced Modeling Program Phase I controlled‐source electromagnetic data, we apply our standard controlled‐source electromagnetic interpretation workflows to delineate a simulated hydrocarbon reservoir. Experience learned from characterizing such a complicated model offers us an opportunity to refine our workflows to achieve better interpretation quality. The exercise proceeded in a blind test style, where the interpreting geophysicists did not know the true resistivity model until the end of the project. Rather, the interpreters were provided a traditional controlled‐source electromagnetic data package, including electric field measurements, interpreted seismic horizons, and well log data. Based on petrophysical analysis, a background resistivity model was established first. Then, the interpreters started with feasibility studies to establish the recoverability of the prospect and carefully stepped through 1D, 2.5D, and 3D inversions with seismic and well log data integrated at each stage. A high‐resistivity zone is identified with 1D analysis and further characterized with 2.5D inversions. Its lateral distribution is confirmed with a 3D anisotropic inversion. The importance of integrating all available geophysical and petrophysical data to derive more accurate interpretation is demonstrated.     

Connecting Satellite Observations with Water Cycle Variables Through Land Data Assimilation: Examples Using the NASA GEOS-5 LDAS

A land data assimilation system (LDAS) can merge satellite observations (or retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, satellite observations do not correspond directly to the water cycle variables of interest. The present paper addresses various aspects of this seeming mismatch using examples drawn from recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-5 LDAS. These aspects include (1) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (2) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (3) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based soil moisture and snow assimilation, and (4) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable that is not observed (such as root zone soil moisture). The solution to these challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.     

Authigenic carbonate mineral formation in the Pagassitikos palaeolake during the latest Pleistocene, central Greece

The Pagassitikos Gulf in Greece is a semi-enclosed bay with a maximum depth of 102 m. According to the present-day bathymetric configuration and the sea level during the latest Pleistocene, the gulf would have been isolated from the open sea, forming a palaeolake since ~32 cal. ka b.p. Sediment core B-4 was recovered from the deepest sector of the gulf and revealed evidence of a totally different depositional environment in the lowest part of the core: this contained light grey-coloured sediments, contrasting strongly with overlying olive grey muds. Multi-proxy analyses showed the predominance of carbonate minerals (aragonite, dolomite and calcite) and gypsum in the lowest part of the core. Carbonate mineral deposition can be attributed to autochthonous precipitation that took place in a saline palaeolake with high evaporation rates during the last glacial–early deglacial period; the lowest core sample to be AMS ¹⁴C dated provided an age of 19.53 cal. ka b.p. The palaeolake was presumably reconnected to the open sea at ~13.2 cal. ka b.p. during the last sea-level rise, marking the commencement of marine sedimentation characterised by the predominance of terrigenous aluminosilicates and fairly constant depositional conditions lasting up to the present day.     

The northern boundary of the Jan Mayen microcontinent, North Atlantic determined from ocean bottom seismic, multichannel seismic, and gravity data

The Jan Mayen microcontinent was as a result of two major North Atlantic evolutionary cornerstones—the separation of Greenland from Norway (~54 Ma), accompanied by voluminous volcanic activity, and the jump of spreading from the Aegir to the Kolbeinsey ridge (~33 Ma), which resulted in the separation of the microcontinent itself from Eastern Greenland (~24 Ma). The resulting eastern and western sides of the Jan Mayen microcontinent are respectively volcanic and non-volcanic rifted margins. Until now the northern boundary of the microcontinent was not precisely known. In order to locate this boundary, two combined refraction and reflection seismic profiles were acquired in 2006: one trending S–N and consisting of two separate segments south and north of the island of Jan Mayen respectively, and the second one trending SW–NE east of the island. Crustal P-wave velocity models were derived and constrained using gravity data collected during the same expedition. North of the West Jan Mayen Fracture Zone (WJMFZ) the models show oceanic crust that thickens from west to east. This thickening is explained by an increase in volcanic activity expressed as a bathymetric high and most likely related to the proximity of the Mohn ridge. East of the island and south of the WJMFZ, oceanic Layers 2 and 3 have normal seismic velocities but above normal average crustal thickness (~11 km). The similarity of the crustal thickness and seismic velocities to those observed on the conjugate M?re margin confirm the volcanic origin of the eastern side of the microcontinent. Thick continental crust is observed in the southern parts of both profiles. The northern boundary of the microcontinent is a continuation of the northern lineament of the East Jan Mayen Fracture Zone. It is thus located farther north than previously assumed. The crust in the middle parts of both models, around Jan Mayen island, is more enigmatic as the data suggest two possible interpretations—Icelandic type of oceanic crust or thinned and heavily intruded continental crust. We prefer the first interpretation but the latter cannot be completely ruled out. We infer that the volcanism on Jan Mayen is related to the Icelandic plume.     

An integrated geophysical study of Vestbakken Volcanic Province, western Barents Sea continental margin, and adjacent oceanic crust

This paper describes results from a geophysical study in the Vestbakken Volcanic Province, located on the central parts of the western Barents Sea continental margin, and adjacent oceanic crust in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. The results are derived mainly from interpretation and modeling of multichannel seismic, ocean bottom seismometer and land station data along a regional seismic profile. The resulting model shows oceanic crust in the western parts of the profile. This crust is buried by a thick Cenozoic sedimentary package. Low velocities in the bottom of this package indicate overpressure. The igneous oceanic crust shows an average thickness of 7.2 km with the thinnest crust (5–6 km) in the southwest and the thickest crust (8–9 km) close to the continent-ocean boundary (COB). The thick oceanic crust is probably related to high mantle temperatures formed by brittle weakening and shear heating along a shear system prior to continental breakup. The COB is interpreted in the central parts of the profile where the velocity structure and Bouguer anomalies change significantly. East of the COB Moho depths increase while the vertical velocity gradient decreases. Below the assumed center for Early Eocene volcanic activity the model shows increased velocities in the crust. These increased crustal velocities are interpreted to represent Early Eocene mafic feeder dykes. East of the zone of volcanoes velocities in the crust decrease and sedimentary velocities are observed at depths of more than 10 km. The amount of crustal intrusions is much lower in this area than farther west. East of the Kn?legga Fault crystalline basement velocities are brought close to the seabed. This fault marks the eastern limit of thick Cenozoic and Mesozoic packages on central parts of the western Barents Sea continental margin.     

An approach for the determination of precipitation input for worst-case flood modelling

ABSTRACT

There is a lack of suitable methods for creating precipitation scenarios that can be used to realistically estimate peak discharges with very low probabilities. On the one hand, existing methods are methodically questionable when it comes to physical system boundaries. On the other hand, the spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation patterns as system input is limited. In response, this paper proposes a method of deriving spatio-temporal precipitation patterns and presents a step towards making methodically correct estimations of infrequent floods by using a worst-case approach. A Monte Carlo approach allows for the generation of a wide range of different spatio-temporal distributions of an extreme precipitation event that can be tested with a rainfall–runoff model that generates a hydrograph for each of these distributions. Out of these numerous hydrographs and their corresponding peak discharges, the physically plausible spatio-temporal distributions that lead to the highest peak discharges are identified and can eventually be used for further investigations.

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate editor E. Volpi     

Impact of loading displacements on SLR-derived parameters and on the consistency between GNSS and SLR results

Displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by tidal and non-tidal loading forces are relevant in high-precision space geodesy. Some of the corrections are recommended by the international scientific community to be applied at the observation level, e.g., ocean tidal loading (OTL) and atmospheric tidal loading (ATL). Non-tidal displacement corrections are in general recommended not to be applied in the products of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, in particular atmospheric non-tidal loading (ANTL), oceanic and hydrological non-tidal corrections. We assess and compare the impact of OTL, ATL and ANTL on SLR-derived parameters by reprocessing 12 years of SLR data considering and ignoring individual corrections. We show that loading displacements have an influence not only on station long-term stability, but also on geocenter coordinates, Earth Rotation Parameters, and satellite orbits. Applying the loading corrections reduces the amplitudes of annual signals in the time series of geocenter and station coordinates. The general improvement of the SLR station 3D coordinate repeatability when applying OTL, ATL and ANTL corrections are 19.5 %, 0.2 % and 3.3 % respectively, w.r.t. the solutions without loading corrections. ANTL corrections play a crucial role in the combination of optical (SLR) and microwave (GNSS, VLBI, DORIS) space geodetic observation techniques, because of the so-called Blue-Sky effect: SLR measurements can be carried out only under cloudless sky conditions—typically during high air pressure conditions, when the Earth’s crust is deformed, whereas microwave observations are weather-independent. Thus, applying the loading corrections at the observation level improves SLR-derived products as well as the consistency with microwave-based results. We assess the Blue-Sky effect on SLR stations and the consistency improvement between GNSS and SLR solutions when ANTL corrections are included. The omission of ANTL corrections may lead to inconsistencies between SLR and GNSS solutions of up to 2.5 mm for inland stations. As a result, the estimated GNSS–SLR coordinate differences correspond better to the local ties at the co-located stations when applying ANTL corrections.     

The Basic Formal Ontology as a Reference Framework for Modeling the Evolution of Administrative Units

In information systems, ontologies promise advantages such as enhanced interoperability, knowledge sharing, and integration of data sources. In this article, we show that the upper ontology Basic Formal Ontology can facilitate the modeling of an evolution of administrative units. This is demonstrated by creating a spatiotemporal ontology for the administrative units of Switzerland. The ontology tackles the problem that the geometric data is typically captured by taking snapshots at regular intervals while the thematic data is continually updated. The ontology presented merges time‐stamped geometries with a formally described history of administrative units, allowing for complex spatiotemporal queries neither standard approach would support. The resulting populated knowledge base was evaluated against a set of spatiotemporal test queries. The evaluation showed that this knowledge base supports a wide range of queries on the evolution of the administrative units of Switzerland between 1960 and 2010.