Creep in rock as a stochastic process

The heterogeneous character of rock suggests the use of statistical mechanics for the formulation of models of plasticity and creep. A stochastic creep model which allows for large variations in strength and size of the involved rock mass is outlined. The model, which is analogous to a previously developed concept for clastic materials, is shown to account rather well for typical creep behaviour of rock at moderate stresses and temperatures. Thus, it yields the often observed linear relation between the creep strain and the logarithm of time.     

Evidence for Century-Timescale Acceleration in Mean Sea Levels and for Recent Changes in Extreme Sea Levels

Two of the most important topics in Sea Level Science are addressed in this paper. One is concerned with the evidence for the apparent acceleration in the rate of global sea level change between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and, thereby, with the question of whether the twentieth century sea level rise was a consequence of an accelerated climate change of anthropogenic origin. An acceleration is indeed observed in both tide gauge and saltmarsh data at different locations around the world, yielding quadratic coefficients ??c?? of order 0.005 mm/year², and with the most rapid changes of rate of sea level rise occurring around the end of the nineteenth century. The second topic refers to whether there is evidence that extreme sea levels have increased in recent decades at rates significantly different from those in mean levels. Recent results, which suggest that at most locations rates of change of extreme and mean sea levels are comparable, are presented. In addition, a short review is given of recent work on extreme sea levels by other authors. This body of work, which is focused primarily on Europe and the Mediterranean, also tends to support mean and extreme sea levels changing at similar rates at most locations.     

Spatial exposure aspects contributing to vulnerability and resilience assessments of urban critical infrastructure in a flood and blackout context

Blackouts aggravate the situation during an extreme river-flood event by affecting residents and visitors of an urban area. But also rescue services, fire brigades and basic urban infrastructure such as hospitals have to operate under suboptimal conditions. This paper aims to demonstrate how affected people, critical infrastructure, such as electricity, roads and civil protection infrastructure are intertwined during a flood event, and how this can be analysed in a spatially explicit way. The city of Cologne (Germany) is used as a case study since it is river-flood prone and thousands of people had been affected in the floods in 1993 and 1995. Components of vulnerability and resilience assessments are selected with a focus of analysing exposure to floods, and five steps of analysis are demonstrated using a geographic information system. Data derived by airborne and spaceborne earth observation to capture flood extent and demographic data are combined with place-based information about location and distance of objects. The results illustrate that even fire brigade stations, hospitals and refugee shelters are within the flood scenario area. Methodologically, the paper shows how criticality of infrastructure can be analysed and how static vulnerability assessments can be improved by adding routing calculations. Fire brigades can use this information to improve planning on how to access hospitals and shelters under flooded road conditions.

     

Modelling the multiphase near-surface chemistry related to ozone depletions in polar spring

Near-total depletions of ozone have been observed in the Arctic spring since the mid 1980s. The autocatalytic reaction cycles involving reactive halogens are now recognized to be of main importance for ozone depletion events in the polar boundary layer. We present sensitivity studies using the model MISTRA in the box-model mode on the influence of chemical species on these ozone depletion processes. In order to test the sensitivity of the chemistry under polar conditions, we compared base runs undergoing fluxes of either Br₂, BrCl, or Cl₂ to induce ozone depletions, with similar runs including a modification of the chemical conditions. The role of HCHO, H₂O₂, DMS, Cl₂, C₂H₆, HONO, NO₂, and RONO₂ was investigated. Cases with elevated mixing ratios of HCHO, H₂O₂, DMS, Cl₂, and HONO induced a shift in bromine speciation from Br / BrO to HOBr/HBr, while high mixing ratios of C₂H₆ induced a shift from HOBr/HBr to Br/BrO. The shifts from Br/BrO to HOBr/HBr accelerated the aerosol debromination, but also increased the total amount of deposited bromine at the surface (mainly via increased deposition of HOBr). For all NO_y species studied (HONO, NO₂, RONO₂) the chemistry is characterized by an increased bromine deposition on snow reducing the amount of reactive bromine in the air. Ozone is less depleted under conditions of high mixing ratios of NO_x. The production of HNO₃ led to the acid displacement of HCl, and the release of chlorine out of salt aerosol (Cl₂ or BrCl) increased.     

Gravimetric monitoring of the first field‐wide steam injection in a fractured carbonate field in Oman – a feasibility study

Gas‐Oil Gravity Drainage is to be enhanced by steam injection in a highly fractured, low permeability carbonate field in Oman. Following a successful pilot, field‐wide steam injection is being implemented, first of this type in the world. A dedicated monitoring program has been designed to track changes in the reservoir. Various observations are to be acquired, including, surface deformation, temperature measurements, microseismic, well logs, pressure and saturation measurements to monitor the reservoir. Because significant changes in the reservoir density are expected, time‐lapse gravimetry is also being considered. In this paper we investigate the feasibility of gravimetric monitoring of the thermally enhanced gravity drainage process at the carbonate field in Oman. For this purpose, forward gravity modelling is performed. Based on field groundwater measurements, the estimates of the hydrological signal are considered and it is investigated under what conditions the groundwater influences can be minimized. Using regularized inversion of synthetic gravity data, we analyse the achievable accuracy of heat‐front position estimates. In case of large groundwater variations at the field, the gravity observations can be significantly affected and, consequently, the accuracy of heat‐front monitoring can be deteriorated. We show that, by applying gravity corrections based on local observations of groundwater, the hydrological influences can to a large extent be reduced and the accuracy of estimates can be improved. We conclude that gravimetric monitoring of the heat‐front evolution has a great potential.     

Intercomparison of measurements of stratospheric hydrogen fluoride

Observations of the vertical profile of hydrogen fluoride (HF) vapor in the stratosphere and of the vertical column amounts of HF above certain altitudes were made using a variety of spectroscopic instruments in the 1982 and 1983 Balloon Intercomparison Campaigns. Both emission instruments working in the far infrared spectral region and absorption instruments using solar occultation in the 2.5m region were employed. No systematic differences were seen in results from the two spectral regions. A mean profile from 20–45 km is presented, with uncertainties ranging from 20% to 50%. Total columns measured from ground and from 12 km are consistent with the profile if the mixing ratio for HF is small in the tropophere and low stratosphere.     

A first Holocene leaf wax isotope-based paleoclimate record from the semi-humid to semi-arid south-eastern Caucasian lowlands

The Holocene paleoclimate of the Caucasus region is rather complex and not yet well understood: while existing studies are mainly based on pollen records from high-altitude and humid lowland regions, no records are available from the semi-humid to semi-arid south-eastern Caucasian lowlands. Therefore, this study investigated compound-specific δ²H and δ¹³C isotopes of leaf wax biomarkers from Holocene floodplain soils in eastern Georgia. Our results show that the leaf wax δ²H signal from the paleosols mostly reflects changes in the moisture source and its isotopic composition. Depleted δ²H values before ~8 cal ka bp change towards enriched values after ~5 cal ka bp and become again depleted after ~1.6 cal ka bp. This trend could be caused by Holocene changes of the isotopic compositions of the Black and eastern Mediterranean Sea, and/or by varying contribution of both moisture sources linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The leaf wax δ¹³C signal from the paleosols directly indicates varying local water availability and drought stress. Depleted δ¹³C values before ~8 and after ~5 cal ka bp indicate wetter local conditions with higher water availability, whereas more enriched values during the middle Holocene (~8 until at least 5 cal ka bp ) indicate drier conditions with increased drought stress.     

Electron microscopic examination of hydrothermally treated bentonite clay

Water-saturated Na bentonite clay with a bulk density of 2 g/cm³ was autoclaved at 150 and 200°C for up to 0.5 years and then left to rest under confined conditions at room temperature for several weeks. Transmission electron microscopy with elemental micro-analysis was applied to study hydrothermally induced changes, which were found to have the form of particle reorganization and, at 200°C, release and precipitation of silica. The precipitations are suspected to be hydrated amorphous silica gels. The microstructural alteration, which was more obvious at 200°C than at 150°C, involved regrouping of previously dispersed and expanded stacks of montmorillonite flakes to yield dense branches of interwoven, contracted stacks separated by large voids.     

Spatial patterns of sub-tidal seagrasses and their tissue nutrients in the Torres Strait,northern Australia: Implications for management

The distribution and nutritional profiles of sub-tidal seagrasses from the Torres Strait were surveyed and mapped across an area of 31,000 km². Benthic sediment composition, water depth, seagrass species type and nutrients were sampled at 168 points selected in a stratified representative pattern. Eleven species of seagrass were present at 56 (33.3%) of the sample points. Halophila spinulosa, Halophila ovalis, Cymodocea serrulata and Syringodium isoetifolium were the most common species and these were nutrient profiled. Sub-tidal seagrass distribution (and associated seagrass nutrient concentrations) was generally confined to northern-central and south-western regions of the survey area (<longitude 142.60), where mean water depth was relatively shallow (approximately 13 m below MSL) and where sediments were comprised primarily muddy sand to gravelly sand. Seagrass nitrogen and starch content, the most important nutrients for marine herbivores, were significantly correlated with species and with the plant component (above or below ground). For all seagrass species, the above-ground component (shoots and leaves) possessed greater nitrogen concentrations than the below-ground component (roots and rhizomes), which possessed greater starch concentrations. S. isoetifolium had the highest total nitrogen concentrations (1.40±0.05% DW). However, it also had higher fibre concentrations (38.2±0.68% DW) relative to the other four species. H. ovalis possessed the highest starch concentrations (2.76±0.12% DW) and highest digestibility (83.24±0.66% DW) as well as the lowest fibre (27.2±0.66% DW). The high relative abundance (found at 55% of the sites that had seagrass) and nutrient quality characteristics of H. ovalis make it an important source of energy to marine herbivores that forage sub-tidally in the Torres Strait. There were two regions in Torres Strait (north-central and south-western) where sub-tidal seagrass meadows were prevalent and of relatively higher nutritional value. This spatial and nutritional information can be used by local agencies to manage and to protect the ecological, economic and cultural values of the sub-tidal seagrass ecosystems and associated fisheries of the Torres Strait.     

Electrical conductivity of H-bearing orthopyroxene single crystals measured with impedance spectroscopy

In this study, the electrical conductivity of synthetic and natural orthopyroxene single crystals containing various amounts of hydrogen and cation impurities (i.e., Al, Fe) was investigated using impedance spectroscopy. A new cell was developed to measure conductivities of submillimeter-sized oriented single crystals with impedances up to 10¹⁰?Ohm. In contrast to previous studies on olivine and orthopyroxene, results from this study do not show a simple correlation of the concentration of protons and the electrical conductivity. Instead, the electrical conductivity appears to be a complex function of iron content, hydrogen content, crystal orientation and concentration of other impurity cations and shows similar activation energies to hydrogen diffusion. Model calculations considering proton conduction rather exclude than suggest orthopyroxene as responsible phase for high-conductivity regions in the Earth’s upper mantle.