ENSO impacts on salinity in Tampa Bay, Florida

Estuarine salinity distributions reflect a dynamic balance between the processes that control estuarine circulation. At seasonal and longer time scales, freshwater inputs into estuaries represent the primary control on salinity distribution and estuarine circulation. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence seasonal rainfall and stream discharge patterns in the Tampa Bay, Florida region. The resulting variability in freshwater input to Tampa Bay influences its seasonal salinity distribution. During El Niño events, ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are significantly and inversely correlated with salinity in the bay during winter and spring. These patterns reflect the elevated rainfall over the drainage basin and the resulting elevated stream discharge and runoff, which depress salinity levels. Spatially, the correlations are strongest at the head of the bay, especially in bay sections with long residence times. During La Niña conditions, significant inverse correlations between ENSO SSTAs and salinity occur during spring. Dry conditions and depressed stream discharge characterize La Niña winters and springs, and the higher salinity levels during La Niña springs reflect the lower freshwater input levels.     

Problems with argon: K-Ar ages in Gulf Coast shales

K-Ar ages of Gulf Coast shales do not correspond to diagenetic ‘events’, but are a combination of inherited detrital ages and authigenic overprints. The key to understanding K-Ar ages of shales is the fate of the ⁴⁰Ar when the host minerals dissolve or react during the illitisation reaction: is ⁴⁰Ar incorporated within the illite, or is it lost to the porewaters? Ages are modelled as due to a single illitisation reaction, assuming a uniform precursor sediment and open-system import of K. Both whole-rock and clay mineral fraction data can be reproduced by modelling. The ⁴⁰Ar incorporated into illite is a surprisingly high proportion (75-100%) of that produced within detrital phases (smectite, K-feldspar, mica), perhaps implying that the illitisation reaction is a solid-state transformation, or that ⁴⁰Ar is imported into the shales along with incoming K. The model does not provide a good fit to the data below 4000 m, when the illitisation reaction is apparently complete, but shales lose ⁴⁰Ar by solid-state diffusion or recrystallisation.     

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

Persistence of tidally-oriented vertical migration by zooplankton in a temperate estuary

Tidal vertical migration by zooplankton is a common phenomenon in estuaries, usually associated with landward movement of meroplankton or position maintenance of holoplankton. Little is known about the persistence of this behavior, its spatial variability, or its response to changing environmental conditions. We extended a previous study of tidal movements of zooplankton in the low-salinity zone (LSZ) of the San Francisco estuary in 1994 to include data from two additional years with very different hydrology. Freshwater flow during sampling in 1995 was about 7-fold greater than in 1994; the LSZ was about 28 km further seaward, and gravitational circulation in the LSZ was strong. In 1996 freshwater flow and LSZ position were intermediate but, because the LSZ was in shallower water in 1996 than in 1995, gravitational circulation was uncommon. Behavior of copepods in both years was similar to that reported in 1994 with some tidal migration observed during most cruises. An exception was the introduced carnivorous copepodTortanus dextrilobatus, which did not migrate and maintained a position deep in the water column (1995 only). In 1996, mysids mainly stayed near the bottom with evidence for vertical migration from only 1 of 6 data sets, whereas amphipods migrated slightly on a diel schedule; these behaviors contrasted with the tidal migration observed in 1994. The bay shrimpCrangon franciscorum did not appear to migrate, but was more abundant in the water column during both ebb and flood, suggesting passive vertical dispersal. Zooplankton did not appear to maintain position by interactions with lateral circulation cells. The results for copepods suggest rigidity in behavior with little or no relaxation of the vertical movement in 1995 when strong gravitational circulation would have made upstream movement relatively easy. Mysids and amphipods altered their behavior depending on local conditions related to freshwater flow.     

Epibenthic fishes and decapod crustaceans in northern estuaries: A comparison of vegetated and unvegetated habitats in maine

Species richness and abundance of epibenthic fishes and decapod crustaceans were quantified with day-time beam trawl tows and throw traps to provide information on nekton assemblages inZostera marina and unvegetated sandy habitats in northern latitudes. Sampling at randomly selected stations with a 1.0-m beam trawl occurred in eelgrass (Zostera marina) and unvegetated sandy substrates of two mid-coastal Maine estuaries: Casco Bay and Weskeag River. Random 1.0-m throw trap samples were collected inZostera and adjacent unvegetated sandy substrates in Casco Bay and Weskeag River as well. Species richness and faunal abundances were positively associated with the occurrence ofZostera within Weskeag River and Casco Bay estuaries using both gear types. A total of 17 species of fishes and 6 species of decapods were collected in the two estuaries using both gears. Populations of most species were dominated by young-of-the-year and juvenile life history stages. Number and densities of fishes were higher inZostera, due primarily to the abundances of eelgrass residents such as threespine,Gasterosteus aculeatus, and fourspine sticklebacks,Apeltes quadracus, grubby,Myoxocephalus aenaeus, and cunner,Tautogolabrus adspersus. Crangon septemspinosa dominated decapod catch per unit effort and density in both estuaries and habitats.     

Bringing NEOs into focus

Duncan Steel and Mark Bailey report on the well-attended December 2001 G Discussion Meeting whose subject was near-Earth objects.     

Comet Ikeya-Zhang rises for the NAM

A possible naked-eye comet that may have been important in early cometary theory is announced by D J Asher , M E Bailey , A Christou , J McFarland , M F Muir and P P Rafferty .
Early indications sugest that Comet C/2002 (Ikeya-Zhang), discovered on 1 February 2002, may brighten to naked-eye visibility in late March 2002. It has also been suggested that it may be identical to one of the brighter comets of the 16th or 17th centuries, namely C/1532 R1 or C/1661 C1. The first of these, observed for more than 100 days towards the end of 1532, played an important role in the development of cometary theory. The second, although identified by Halley as having an orbit similar to that of the comet C/1532 R1, was not seen on its predicted return in 1788/1789 and so was presumably unrelated. Here we present long-term orbital integrations of C/2002 C1 which suggest that it orginated from the Oort cloud, and will be ejected again, within ˜0.3 Myr. There is a chance of 10–20% that it will end its life by falling into the Sun during a Halley-type phase of cometary evolution. The discovery of Ikeya-Zhang so closeto perigee by two amateur astonomers highlights the need for surveys covering both hemispheres to discover long-period and intermediate-period comets on Earth-crossing orbits.     

DNAPL Characterization Methods and Approaches, Part 2: Cost Comparisons

Contamination from the use of chlorinated solvents, often classified as dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) when in an undissolved state, pose environmental threats to ground water resources worldwide. DNAPL site characterization method performance comparisons are presented in a companion paper (Kram et al. 2001). This study compares the costs for implementing various characterization approaches using synthetic unit model scenarios (UMSs), each with particular physical characteristics. Unit costs and assumptions related to labor, equipment, and consumables are applied to determine costs associated with each approach for various UMSs. In general, the direct-push sensor systems provide cost-effective characterization information in soils that are penetrable with relatively shallow (less than 10 to 15 m) water tables. For sites with impenetrable lithology using direct-push techniques, the Ribbon NAPL Sampler Flexible Liner Underground Technologies Everting (FLUTe) membrane appears to be the most cost-effective approach. For all scenarios studied, partitioning interwell tracer tests (PITTs) are the most expensive approach due to the extensive pre-and post-PITT requirements. However, the PITT is capable of providing useful additional information, such as approximate DNAPL saturation, which is not generally available from any of the other approaches included in this comparison.     

A Reconnaissance Method for Delineation of Tracts for Regional-Scale Mineral-Resource Assessment Based on Geologic-Map Data

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is proposing to conduct a global mineral-resource assessment using geologic maps, significant deposits, and exploration history as minimal data requirements. Using a geologic map and locations of significant pluton-related deposits, the pluton-related-deposit tract maps from the USGS national mineral-resource assessment have been reproduced with GIS-based analysis and modeling techniques. Agreement, kappa, and Jaccard's C correlation statistics between the expert USGS and calculated tract maps of 87%, 40%, and 28%, respectively, have been achieved using a combination of weights-of-evidence and weighted logistic regression methods. Between the experts' and calculated maps, the ranking of states measured by total permissive area correlates at 84%. The disagreement between the experts and calculated results can be explained primarily by tracts defined by geophysical evidence not considered in the calculations, generalization of tracts by the experts, differences in map scales, and the experts' inclusion of large tracts that are arguably not permissive. This analysis shows that tracts for regional mineral-resource assessment approximating those delineated by USGS experts can be calculated using weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression, a geologic map, and the location of significant deposits. Weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression applied to a global geologic map could provide quickly a useful reconnaissance definition of tracts for mineral assessment that is tied to the data and is reproducible.     

Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari

To develop indicator–based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non–specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio–economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process–based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator–based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and land–owning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil–based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator–based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community.