Solar soft X-rays and solar activity

Peak fluxes of flare-associated 8–12 Å X-ray bursts occur at or near the time of the maximum energy content of the soft X-ray source volume. The amplitudes of flare-associated bursts may thus be used as a measure of the energy deposited in the source volume by non-thermal electrons and other processes. In the mean, the soft X-ray burst amplitude is apparently independent of the occurrence of a type III event. This is interpreted to indicate that electrons accelerated by the type III process do not directly participate in establishing the soft X-ray source volume.     

General Relativistic Magnetoionic Theory

We have developed methods for tracing rays and performing radiative transfer through a magneto active plasma in a general relativistic environment. The two electromagnetic plasma modes propagate differently due to a combination of dispersive and gravitational effects. We have found that, when given an appropriate environment surrounding the central black hole, it is indeed possible to generate a significant degree of circular polarisation without an appreciable amount of linear polarisation due to these effects alone.     

Experiences with airborne and ground-based polarimetry

Polarimetry in the far-infrared and submillimeter has been valuable in tracing magnetic fields in bright Galactic clouds. We discuss the techniques we have developed and trends we have found in polarization vs column density and wavelength. The polarization spectrum has proven to be more interesting than had been anticipated. It is potentially valuable in explaining grain alignment and in characterizing dust species. One can expect the infrared cirrus to be a much simpler environment than the molecular clouds that have heretofore been explored at multiple wavelengths. Although cirrus observations must deal with low signals and wide extent, it is becoming possible to measure accurately the spectral energy distribution from mid-infrared to microwave frequencies and it should soon become feasible to determine the polarization spectrum over the same range.     

Using Strong Solar Coronal Emission Lines as Coronal Flux Proxies

We investigate the possibility that strong EUV lines observed with the Goddard Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) provide good proxies for estimating the total coronal flux over shorter wavelength ranges. We use coordinated SERTS and Yohkoh observations to obtain both polynomial and power-law fits relating the broad-band soft X-ray fluxes to the intensities of Fexvi 335 Ú and 361 Ú, Fexv 284 Ú and 417 Ú, and Mgix 368 Ú measured with SERTS. We found that the power-law fits best cover the full range of solar conditions from quiet Sun through active region, though not surprisingly the cooler Mgix 368 Ú line proves to be a poor proxy. The quadratic polynomial fits yield fair agreement over a large range for all but the Mgix line. However, the linear fits fail conspicuously when extrapolated into the quiet-Sun regime. The implications of this work for the Heii 304 Ú line formation problem are also briefly considered.     

Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN DENOMINATIONAL SWITCHING AMONG WHITE PROTESTANTS*

This study examines the hypothesis that the determinants of denominational switching vary regionally among white American Protestants. Data for the analysis are taken from the National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey for 1974 through 1984. Using logistic regression, the analysis compares the determinants of switching among respondents residing in the nine Census regions of the U.S. Results reveal significant regional differences in the determinants of switching, especially in the effects of conversion, childhood affiliation and interdenominational marriage.     

Updated Expressions for Determining Temperatures and Emission Measures from Goes Soft X-Ray Measurements

{We investigate the conversion of the 0.5–4 and 1–8 Å soft X-ray flux measurements made by detectors on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) into temperature and emission measures of coronal plasma using modern spectral models and modern understanding of coronal abundances. In particular, the original analysis by Thomas, Starr and Crannell (1985) is updated to take into account the realization that coronal abundances may be quite different from photospheric abundances. An important result of this analysis is that the derived temperatures and emission measures depend strongly on the assumed abundances even at high temperatures where continuum rather than spectral lines dominates the Sun’s X-ray spectrum. This occurs because the higher coronal abundances mean that most of the continuum is due to free–bound emission processes, not free–free emission, and thus is abundance-dependent. We find significant differences between modern calculations of the temperature response of the flux measurements and the versions currently in use: for a typical flare, emission measures may be up to a factor of 4 smaller than the current software suggests. Derived temperatures are similar for both photospheric and coronal abundances for cool flares (e.g., 15 MK), but for hot flares (e.g., 35 MK) coronal abundances can lead to significantly (~25%) lower temperatures being derived.     

Cadmium release caused by the die-back of the saltmarsh cord grass Spartina anglica in Poole Harbour (UK)

As in many other areas, the perennial cord grass Spartina anglica C.E. Hubbard has been extremely successful at colonising the English and Irish south coasts, but it is dying back for reasons that are not completely understood. The present study considers the relationship between die-back and metal concentrations in estuarine sediment. No obvious impact of the metal contamination on the S. anglica growth/die-back could be detected in the study zone, Poole Harbour, although the die-back did seem to have substantially influenced the metal concentrations in the sediments of the estuary. Based on core profiles, the remaining patches of S. anglica still retain elevated concentrations and the overall cadmium concentrations in the sediments have risen since 1925. However, considerable quantities of the cadmium stored in the sediment by S. anglica appear to have been washed out rapidly in the die-back zones. Should serious erosion of the saltmarsh occur, triggered for example by sea-level rise, then sudden and high levels of cadmium release may cause harmful effects to marine biota.