Ground Water Security and Drought in Africa: Linking Availability,Access, and Demand

Drought in Africa has been extensively researched, particularly from meteorological, agricultural, and food security perspectives. However, the impact of drought on water security, particularly ground water dependent rural water supplies, has received much less attention. Policy responses have concentrated on food needs, and it has often been difficult to mobilize resources for water interventions, despite evidence that access to safe water is a serious and interrelated concern. Studies carried out in Ghana, Malawi, South Africa, and Ethiopia highlight how rural livelihoods are affected by seasonal stress and longer-term drought. Declining access to food and water is a common and interrelated problem. Although ground water plays a vital role in buffering the effects of rainfall variability, water shortages and difficulties in accessing water that is available can affect domestic and productive water uses, with knock-on effects on food consumption and production. Total depletion of available ground water resources is rarely the main concern. A more common scenario is a spiral of water insecurity as shallow water sources fail, additional demands are put on remaining sources, and mechanical failures increase. These problems can be planned for within normal development programs. Water security mapping can help identify vulnerable areas, and changes to monitoring systems can ensure early detection of problems. Above all, increasing the coverage of ground water–based rural water supplies, and ensuring that the design and siting of water points is informed by an understanding of hydrogeological conditions and user demand, can significantly increase the resilience of rural communities to climate variability.     

Modelling dam-break flows over mobile beds using a 2D coupled approach

Dam-break flows usually propagate along rivers and floodplains, where the processes of fluid flow, sediment transport and bed evolution are closely linked. However, the majority of existing two-dimensional (2D) models used to simulate dam-break flows are only applicable to fixed beds. Details are given in this paper of the development of a 2D morphodynamic model for predicting dam-break flows over mobile beds. In this model, the common 2D shallow water equations are modified, so that the effects of sediment concentrations and bed evolution on the flood wave propagation can be considered. These equations are used together with the non-equilibrium transport equations for graded sediments and the equation of bed evolution. The governing equations are solved using a matrix method, thus the hydrodynamic, sediment transport and morphological processes can be jointly solved. The model employs an unstructured finite volume algorithm, with an approximate Riemann solver, based on the Roe-MUSCL scheme. A predictor–corrector scheme is used in time stepping, leading to a second-order accurate solution in both time and space. In addition, the model considers the adjustment process of bed material composition during the morphological evolution process. The model was first verified against results from existing numerical models and laboratory experiments. It was then used to simulate dam-break flows over a fixed bed and a mobile bed to examine the differences in the predicted flood wave speed and depth. The effects of bed material size distributions on the flood flow and bed evolution were also investigated. The results indicate that there is a great difference between the dam-break flow predictions made over a fixed bed and a mobile bed. At the initial stage of a dam-break flow, the rate of bed evolution could be comparable to that of water depth change. Therefore, it is often necessary to employ the turbid water governing equations using a coupled approach for simulating dam-break flows.     

中国城市群区域城际轨道交通布局模式

我国城市密集区与城市群的迅速发展,对交通网络化、现代化的需求日益迫切,而城际轨道交通是城市群发展的重要条件和前提。国外发达国家发展的经验表明,城际轨道交通是城市群客流运输最佳的交通方式选择,两者相互影响、互为促进,城市群区域和城际轨道交通之间的空间结构存在着必然的空间映射关系。基于此,本文根据我国城市群发展现状及其区域空间结构发展的5种模式,相应提出放射型、钟摆型、串珠型和网络型等4种城际轨道交通布局形式,并阐述各自特点。在未来一定时期,国内城际轨道交通将蓬勃发展,必须根据城市群区域空间结构发展模式,进行科学规划和布局形式的选择,以有效满足日益庞大的客流需求和推动城市群发展战略的实现。     

The comparison of macroseismic intensity scales

The number of different macroseismic scales that have been used to express earthquake shaking in the course of the last 200 years is not known; it may reach three figures. The number of important scales that have been widely adopted is much smaller, perhaps about eight, not counting minor variants. Where data sets exist that are expressed in different scales, it is often necessary to establish some sort of equivalence between them, although best practice would be to reassign intensity values rather than convert them. This is particularly true because difference between workers in assigning intensity is often greater than differences between the scales themselves, particularly in cases where one scale may not be very well defined. The extent to which a scale guides the user to arrive at a correct assessment of the intensity is a measure of the quality of the scale. There are a number of reasons why one should prefer one scale to another for routine use, and some of these tend in different directions. If a scale has many tests (diagnostics) for each degree, it is more likely that the scale can be applied in any case that comes to hand, but if the diagnostics are so numerous that they include ones that do not accurately indicate any one intensity level, then the use of the scale will tend to produce false values. The purpose of this paper is chiefly to discuss in a general way the principles involved in the analysis of intensity scales. Conversions from different scales to the European Macroseismic Scale are discussed.     

Coastal upwelling along the north coast of Papua New Guinea and El Niño events during 1981–2005

We investigate the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and upwelling along Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) north coast before the onset of El Niño events using a hindcast experiment with a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. Coastal upwelling and related SST cooling appear along PNG north coast during the boreal winter before the onsets of six El Niño events occurring during 1981–2005. Relatively cool SSTs appear along PNG north coast during that time, when anomalous northwesterly surface wind stress, which can cause coastal upwelling by offshore Ekman transport appearing over the region. In addition, anomalous cooling tendencies of SST are observed, accompanying anomalous upward velocities at the base of the mixed layer and shallow anomalies of 27°C isotherm depth. It is also shown that entrainment cooling plays an important role in the cooling of the mixed layer temperature in this region.     

Non-invasive Geophysical Surveys in Search of the Roman Temple of Augustus Under the Cathedral of Tarragona (Catalonia,Spain): A Case Study

An integrated geophysical survey has been conducted at the Tarragona’s Cathedral (Catalonia, NE Spain) with the aim to confirm the potential occurrence of archaeological remains of the Roman Temple dedicated to the Emperor Augustus. Many hypotheses have been proposed about its possible location, the last ones regarding the inner part of the Cathedral, which is one of the most renowned temples of Spain (twelfth century) evolving from Romanesque to Gothic styles. A geophysical project including electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground probing radar (GPR) was planned over 1 year considering the administrative and logistic difficulties of such a project inside a cathedral of religious veneration. Finally, both ERT and GPR have been conducted during a week of intensive overnight surveys that provided detailed information on subsurface existing structures. The ERT method has been applied using different techniques and arrays, ranging from standard Wenner–Schlumberger 2D sections to full 3D electrical imaging with the advanced Maximum Yield Grid array. Electrical resistivity data were recorded extensively, making available many thousands of apparent resistivity data to obtain a complete 3D image after a full inversion. In conclusion, some significant buried structures have been revealed providing conclusive information for archaeologists. GPR results provided additional information about shallowest structures. The geophysical results were clear enough to persuade religious authorities and archaeologists to conduct selected excavations in the most promising areas that confirmed the interpretation of geophysical data. In conclusion, the significant buried structures revealed by geophysical methods under the cathedral were confirmed by archaeological digging as the basement of the impressive Roman Temple that headed the Provincial Forum of Tarraco, seat of the Concilium of Hispania Citerior Province.     

Decomposition algorithms for system reliability estimation with applications to interdependent lifeline networks

Reliability and risk assessment of lifeline systems call for efficient methods that integrate hazard and interdependencies. Such methods are computationally challenged when the probabilistic response of systems is tied to multiple events, as performance quantification requires a large catalog of ground motions. Available methods to address this issue use catalog reductions and importance sampling. However, besides comparisons against baseline Monte Carlo trials in select cases, there is no guarantee that such methods will perform or scale well in practice. This paper proposes a new efficient method for reliability assessment of interdependent lifeline systems, termed RAILS, that considers systemic performance and is particularly effective when dealing with large catalogs of events. RAILS uses the state‐space partition method to estimate systemic reliability with theoretical bounds and, for the first time, supports cyclic interdependencies among lifeline systems. Recycling computations across an entire seismic catalog with RAILS considerably reduces the number of system performance evaluations in seismic performance studies. Also, when performance estimate bounds are not tight, we adopt an importance and stratified sampling method that in our computational experiments is various orders of magnitude more efficient than crude Monte Carlo. We assess the efficiency of RAILS using synthetic networks and illustrate its application to quantify the seismic risk of realistic yet streamlined systems hypothetically located in the San Francisco Bay Region.     

Sediment detachment and transport processes associated with internal erosion of soil pipes

Subsurface flow can be an important process in gully erosion through its impact on decreasing soil cohesion and erosion resistance as soil water content or pressure increases and more directly by the effects of seepage forces on particle detachment and piping. The development of perched water tables fosters lateral flow that can result in seepage at the surface and/or formation of soil pipes by internal erosion of preferential flow paths. Continued internal erosion of soil pipes can lead to gullies, dam and levee failures. However, the processes involved in particle and aggregate detachment from soil pipe walls and transport processes within soil pipes have not been well studied or documented. This paper reviews the limited research on sediment detachment and transport in macropores and soil pipes and applies the knowledge learned from the much more extensive studies conducted on streams and industrial pipes to hydrogeologic conditions of soil pipes. Knowledge gaps are identified and recommendations are made for future research on sediment detachment and transport in soil pipes. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Marine control over negative power law scaling of mass wasting events in chalk sea cliffs with implications for future recession under the UKCP09 medium emission scenario

Coastal cliff erosion represents a significant geohazard for people and infrastructure. Forecasting future erosion rates is therefore of critical importance to ensuring the resiliency of coastal communities. We use high precision monitoring of chalk cliffs at Telscombe, UK to generate monthly mass movement inventories between August 2016 and July 2017. Frequency–magnitude analysis of our inventories demonstrate negative power law scaling over 7 orders of magnitude and, for the first time, we report statistically significant correlations between significant wave height (H_s) and power law scaling coefficients (r² values of 0.497 and 0.590 for β and s respectively). Applying these relationships allows for a quantitative method to predict erosion at the site based on H_s probabilities and sea level forecasts derived from the UKCP09 medium emission climate model (A1B). Monte‐Carlo simulations indicate a range of possible erosion scenarios over 70 years (2020–2090) and we assess the impact these may have on the A259 coastal road which runs proximal to the cliffs. Results indicate a small acceleration in erosion compared with those based on current conditions with the most likely scenario at the site being 21.7 m of cliff recession by 2090. However, low‐probability events can result in recession an order of magnitude higher in some scenarios. In the absence of negative feedbacks, we estimate an ~11% chance that the A259 will be breached by coastal erosion by 2090. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Controls of uncertainty in acid rock drainage predictions from waste rock piles examined through Monte-Carlo multicomponent reactive transport

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Heterogeneity in waste rock piles (WRPs) determines uncertainty in acid mine drainage (ARD) predictions from these deposits. Numerical...