Use of the population potential model for predicting the growth of cities in a region (with reference to Moscow Oblast)

"A modification of the population potential model is used to analyze the structure of the potential of population for cities of the Moscow region, to develop a relationship between population potential and city size, and to use this procedure to forecast future population change in Moscow Oblast cities." Cities in the region with a population of 50,000 or more at the censuses of 1959, 1970, and 1979 are included.     

Extensive-Dilatancy Anisotropy (Eda) Inferred From Observations of Crustal Shear Waves Generated By A Refraction Experiment In Northern Scandinavia

Summary. Particle-motion plots of shear waves have been studied for the section FG of the FENNOLORA seismic experiment. Shear-wave splitting is observed on some records and the polarization of the first arriving shear waves show two peaks at about N35°W and N65°E. These results can be interpreted as being due to crack-induced anisotropy with the crack direction dominated by a (dominant) horizontal stress around N35°W. This is consistent with in situ stress measurements and focal mechanism studies in Scandinavia. the results show that seismic refraction experiments may be useful in providing evidence of crack-induced anisotropy in the stable continental crust.     

Palaeolimnological records of shallow lake biodiversity change: exploring the merits of single versus multi-proxy approaches

Shallow lakes are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world and many contemporary studies have demonstrated declines in biodiversity due to anthropogenic forcing. Mostly, however, these studies have not covered the full period of human-induced diversity change in lakes which is typically over decades-centuries. Here we provide two examples of palaeoecological studies focussed on reconstructing biodiversity changes in contrasting shallow lake environments that demonstrate the efficacy of the approach—a shallow UK lake and a suite of floodplain lakes (called billabongs) in the Murray-Darling basin, Australia. In the Murray-Darling billabongs, complex sedimentary processes operate, sediment chronologies are less certain and replication of sites is needed to confirm patterns. The combination of sediment records from 10 billabongs showed that diatom diversity changes pre- and post-European (>1850) disturbance were inconsistent; however, reductions in diversity were more common and appear to reflect reductions in macrophyte abundance. At Felbrigg Lake, a multi-proxy study with strong chronological control demonstrated divergent responses of macrophyte, diatom, cladoceran and chironomid richness and diversity to a century of eutrophication. Eutrophication of the site was qualitatively inferred from changes in the macrophyte community in turn reconstructed from plant macrofossils. Benthic cladocerans showed a consistent decline in richness through the record, reflecting the gradual reduction in their macrophyte associated habitat over the past century. Diatom richness and diversity responses were complex, with increases in diversity and richness linked to both increases and decreases in macrophyte species richness and abundance. Chironomid richness and diversity patterns were less consistently linked to eutrophication. The loss of the dominant zooplanktivore (perch) in the 1970s was reflected in the richness and diversity profiles for all groups. Our study reveals clear potential for using sediment cores to infer biodiversity change in shallow lakes and shallow lake regions. However, given the contrasting patterns of diversity change for the different biological groups both in Felbrigg Lake and between Felbrigg and the billabongs, caution is required when interpreting whole-ecosystem biodiversity changes (or the absence of change) based on single as opposed to multi-proxy studies.     

Rice research for food security and sustainable agricultural development in Asia: Achievements and future challenges

Rice is the major staple food of Asia, and an important source of employment and income in rural areas, particularly in low-income countries. Research has contributed significantly in achieving food security by increasing the yield potential of rice in irrigated systems, reducing the crop maturity period and achieving yield stability by developing resistance against major insects and diseases in the modern high-yielding varieties. Poverty is, however, still extensive in fragile rainfed rice ecosystems where rice yield has remained low, as scientists have yet to develop high-yielding varieties resistant to abiotic stresses and problem soils. Rice production needs to be increased by another 70% over the next 30 years to meet growing food needs. This has to be achieved with less land, less water, and less labor to accommodate the demand for these inputs from the expanding nonagricultural sectors. The challenge to the rice research community is to make further shifts in yield potential of rice for the irrigated systems, to close the yield gaps in the rainfed systems through developing resistance of high yielding varieties to abiotic stresses, and greater understanding of the interactions between genotypes and environment, developing durable resistance against pests and diseases to reduce farmers' dependence on harmful agrochemicals, and to increase efficiency in the use of water, labor and fertilizers. As further intensification of rice cultivation is inevitable, scientists must understand the negative environmental side-effects of increasing rice productivity, to develop appropriate mitigation options.     

Contributions from oceanic and ionospheric dynamos to the lunar daily variation at Alibag

Summary. The contributions from the oceanic and ionospheric dynamos, L_o and L_I respectively, to the geomagnetic lunar daily variation, L , at Alibag, a coastal station in the Indian equatorial region, are calculated from the L harmonics derived from a 41–yr long series of observations. The analysis in the calendar months shows a steady and significant ocean dynamo contribution in the vertical component, Z, in all the months except April. Examination, by an analysis of the data year by year, of the association of L_o and L_I with varying solar and magnetic activities reveals, surprisingly, a stable correlation between the magnetic activity index A _P and the oceanic part in the horizontal and vertical components but not in declination, which probably indicates the influence of induced currents, along the latitudes, on L _o.     

Assessment of regional air pollution distribution by point cumulative semivariogram method at Erzurum urban center, TURKEY

In the assessment of air quality, regional distribution and dispersion with distance are important, together with the variations of pollutants in time. On this occasion, the point cumulative semi-variogram (PCSV) method is used in order to find simply regional distribution of pollutants of Erzurum urban centre. This method is based simply on the summation of square differences in air pollutant concentrations between different sites. Monthly regional variation maps of Erzurum are constructed by finding radius of influence (for SO₂, from 1000 m to 3500 m and, for TSP, 1000–2000 m) and PCSV scattering diagram data at different levels by using monthly average sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and total suspended particulate (TSP) matter concentrations in 2001–2002 winter season. Consequently, the air pollution distribution of Erzurum is assessed.     

Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.     

The frequency of wide binaries among the southern barium stars

Summary All of the barium and marginal barium stars in the 1972 MacConnell, Frey, and Upgren (1972: MFU) list of such objects which are located south of the celestial equator were examined for visual duplicity. Over 200 objects were observed, and a total of six possible candidates for wide pair visual binaries were found. Of these, four are most likely optical in nature. These data suggest that the incidence of wide binaries among barium stars is of the order of 1%.     

Electromagnetic studies in the central Arctic water basin

The results of the electromagnetic studies, obtained on the North Pole drifting stations, are reviewed. These results are still of current interest. The aspects of similar future works are discussed.