Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

Simulating flash heating in a muffle tube furnace

Abstract— Very rapid heating is an important chondrule-formation process, and it has not been clear whether conventional equipment, such as a muffle tube furnace, is adequate for the simulation of heating on a timescale of seconds. We present a method for measuring the internal temperature reached by a charge during rapid heating when the thermocouple response lags. We have constrained charge temperatures by monitoring the time required to melt metal wires of various compositions and melting points placed inside charges with furnace temperature at 1400, 1500, and 1600 °C. The times required for melting of the metal wires define the temperature paths inside the charges. At 1400 °C, a charge takes 31 s to reach 1399 °C; at 1500 °C, a charge takes 10 s to reach 1495 °C; and at 1600 °C, a charge takes 6 s to reach 1538 °C. Heating rates in vertical muffle tube furnaces are adequate for studying flash melting processes (i.e., of «1 min duration) invoked, for example, in the formation of chondrules.     

The Influence of Topology on Hydraulic Conductivity in a Sand-and-Gravel Aquifer

A field experiment consisting of geophysical logging and tracer testing was conducted in a single well that penetrated a sand-and-gravel aquifer at the U.S. Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology research site on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Geophysical logs and flowmeter/pumping measurements were obtained to estimate vertical profiles of porosity ϕ, hydraulic conductivity K, temperature, and bulk electrical conductivity under background, freshwater conditions. Saline-tracer fluid was then injected into the well for 2 h and its radial migration into the surrounding deposits was monitored by recording an electromagnetic-induction log every 10 min. The field data are analyzed and interpreted primarily through the use of Archie's (1942) law to investigate the role of topological factors such as pore geometry and connectivity, and grain size and packing configuration in regulating fluid flow through these coarse-grained materials. The logs reveal no significant correlation between K and ϕ, and imply that groundwater models that link these two properties may not be useful at this site. Rather, it is the distribution and connectivity of the fluid phase as defined by formation factor F, cementation index m, and tortuosity α that primarily control the hydraulic conductivity. Results show that F correlates well with K, thereby indicating that induction logs provide qualitative information on the distribution of hydraulic conductivity. A comparison of α, which incorporates porosity data, with K produces only a slightly better correlation and further emphasizes the weak influence of the bulk value of ϕ on K.     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN DENOMINATIONAL SWITCHING AMONG WHITE PROTESTANTS*

This study examines the hypothesis that the determinants of denominational switching vary regionally among white American Protestants. Data for the analysis are taken from the National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey for 1974 through 1984. Using logistic regression, the analysis compares the determinants of switching among respondents residing in the nine Census regions of the U.S. Results reveal significant regional differences in the determinants of switching, especially in the effects of conversion, childhood affiliation and interdenominational marriage.     

Updated Expressions for Determining Temperatures and Emission Measures from Goes Soft X-Ray Measurements

{We investigate the conversion of the 0.5–4 and 1–8 Å soft X-ray flux measurements made by detectors on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) into temperature and emission measures of coronal plasma using modern spectral models and modern understanding of coronal abundances. In particular, the original analysis by Thomas, Starr and Crannell (1985) is updated to take into account the realization that coronal abundances may be quite different from photospheric abundances. An important result of this analysis is that the derived temperatures and emission measures depend strongly on the assumed abundances even at high temperatures where continuum rather than spectral lines dominates the Sun’s X-ray spectrum. This occurs because the higher coronal abundances mean that most of the continuum is due to free–bound emission processes, not free–free emission, and thus is abundance-dependent. We find significant differences between modern calculations of the temperature response of the flux measurements and the versions currently in use: for a typical flare, emission measures may be up to a factor of 4 smaller than the current software suggests. Derived temperatures are similar for both photospheric and coronal abundances for cool flares (e.g., 15 MK), but for hot flares (e.g., 35 MK) coronal abundances can lead to significantly (~25%) lower temperatures being derived.     

Magnetic susceptibility of ultrahigh pressure eclogite: The role of retrogression

Retrograde metamorphism played the dominant role in changing the low-field rock magnetic properties and density of 198 specimens of variably retrograded eclogites from the main borehole of the Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling Project (CCSD) and from surface outcrops in the Donghai area in the southern part of the Sulu UHP belt, China. Bulk magnetic susceptibility (κ) of unretrogressed UHP eclogite is controlled by whole-rock chemical composition and ranges from 397 to 2312 μSI with principal magnetic susceptibility carrying minerals paramagnetic garnet, omphacite, rutile and phengite. Partially retrograded eclogites show large variations in magnetic susceptibility between 804 and 24,277 μSI, with high mean magnetic susceptibility values of 4372 ± 4149 μSI caused by appreciable amounts of Fe-Ti oxide minerals such as magnetite, ilmenite and/or titanohematite produced by retrograde metamorphic reactions. Completely retrograded eclogites have lower susceptibilities of 1094 ± 600 μSI and amphibolite facies mineral assemblages lacking high magnetic susceptibility minerals. Jelínek's corrected anisotropy (P_j) of eclogites ranges from 1.001 to 1.540, and shows a positive correlation with low-field magnetic susceptibility (κ). Arithmetic mean bulk density (ρ) shows a steady decrease from 3.54 ± 0.11 g/cm³ (fresh eclogite) to 2.98 ± 0.06 g/cm³ (completely retrograded eclogite). Retrograde metamorphic changes in mineral composition during exhumation appear to be the major factor causing variations in low field magnetic susceptibility and anisotropy. Retrograde processes must be taken into account when interpreting magnetic surveys and geophysical well logs in UHP metamorphic terranes, and petrophysical properties such as density and low-field magnetic susceptibility could provide a means for semi-quantifying the degree of retrogression of eclogite during exhumation.     

Cadmium release caused by the die-back of the saltmarsh cord grass Spartina anglica in Poole Harbour (UK)

As in many other areas, the perennial cord grass Spartina anglica C.E. Hubbard has been extremely successful at colonising the English and Irish south coasts, but it is dying back for reasons that are not completely understood. The present study considers the relationship between die-back and metal concentrations in estuarine sediment. No obvious impact of the metal contamination on the S. anglica growth/die-back could be detected in the study zone, Poole Harbour, although the die-back did seem to have substantially influenced the metal concentrations in the sediments of the estuary. Based on core profiles, the remaining patches of S. anglica still retain elevated concentrations and the overall cadmium concentrations in the sediments have risen since 1925. However, considerable quantities of the cadmium stored in the sediment by S. anglica appear to have been washed out rapidly in the die-back zones. Should serious erosion of the saltmarsh occur, triggered for example by sea-level rise, then sudden and high levels of cadmium release may cause harmful effects to marine biota.     

A review of EU bio-economic models for fisheries: The value of a diversity of models

The lessons learned from a review of thirteen existing European bio-economic models used in the evaluation of EU policies are presented. How these models compare and differ in terms of their biological and economic components, the integration between the components, which indicators are selected and how they are used, are described and analysed. The article concludes that the multitude of construction differences reflects the necessity of adapting the modelling approach to answer different questions. Since real life questions in fisheries are so diverse, answering them requires a diversity of models.     

Observations on the Burrows and Burrowing Behaviour of the Red Band-Fish, Cepola rubescens L.

Abstract. The red band-fish, Cepola rubescens L., lives in burrows in sublittoral muddy sediments. The authors first presented information on the burrows of this species in the 1970s. The present paper presents new information on burrow structure, describes the method of excavation, and comments on the bioturbatory significance of the species. The work derives from field and laboratory studies. A burrow typically consists of a vertical shaft which opens into an expanded terminal chamber. In some cases a side shaft may be added. The paper includes a size analysis of 130 burrows measured in the field and detailed morphological information from a selection of burrows which were cast with polyester resin. The fish burrows are frequently intersected by the burrows of other species and interspecific associations may develop. Burrow size reflects the size of the occupant and may approach 1 m in depth. The biogenic movement of water and particles to this depth is often overlooked in bioturbation studies and is discussed. Burrow distribution is aggregate, which has implications for the bioturbatory impact of the species. Burrows are constructed by mouth excavation and this is described in detail. Fish transport fine material within their mouths and coarse material is grasped in the jaws. Large spoil heaps occur at burrow openings. One obvious effect of this bioturbatory activity at the field site was the redistribution of coarse material (shell gravel) from depth to the sediment surface.