Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

Simulating flash heating in a muffle tube furnace

Abstract— Very rapid heating is an important chondrule-formation process, and it has not been clear whether conventional equipment, such as a muffle tube furnace, is adequate for the simulation of heating on a timescale of seconds. We present a method for measuring the internal temperature reached by a charge during rapid heating when the thermocouple response lags. We have constrained charge temperatures by monitoring the time required to melt metal wires of various compositions and melting points placed inside charges with furnace temperature at 1400, 1500, and 1600 °C. The times required for melting of the metal wires define the temperature paths inside the charges. At 1400 °C, a charge takes 31 s to reach 1399 °C; at 1500 °C, a charge takes 10 s to reach 1495 °C; and at 1600 °C, a charge takes 6 s to reach 1538 °C. Heating rates in vertical muffle tube furnaces are adequate for studying flash melting processes (i.e., of «1 min duration) invoked, for example, in the formation of chondrules.     

The Influence of Topology on Hydraulic Conductivity in a Sand-and-Gravel Aquifer

A field experiment consisting of geophysical logging and tracer testing was conducted in a single well that penetrated a sand-and-gravel aquifer at the U.S. Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology research site on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Geophysical logs and flowmeter/pumping measurements were obtained to estimate vertical profiles of porosity ϕ, hydraulic conductivity K, temperature, and bulk electrical conductivity under background, freshwater conditions. Saline-tracer fluid was then injected into the well for 2 h and its radial migration into the surrounding deposits was monitored by recording an electromagnetic-induction log every 10 min. The field data are analyzed and interpreted primarily through the use of Archie's (1942) law to investigate the role of topological factors such as pore geometry and connectivity, and grain size and packing configuration in regulating fluid flow through these coarse-grained materials. The logs reveal no significant correlation between K and ϕ, and imply that groundwater models that link these two properties may not be useful at this site. Rather, it is the distribution and connectivity of the fluid phase as defined by formation factor F, cementation index m, and tortuosity α that primarily control the hydraulic conductivity. Results show that F correlates well with K, thereby indicating that induction logs provide qualitative information on the distribution of hydraulic conductivity. A comparison of α, which incorporates porosity data, with K produces only a slightly better correlation and further emphasizes the weak influence of the bulk value of ϕ on K.     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN DENOMINATIONAL SWITCHING AMONG WHITE PROTESTANTS*

This study examines the hypothesis that the determinants of denominational switching vary regionally among white American Protestants. Data for the analysis are taken from the National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey for 1974 through 1984. Using logistic regression, the analysis compares the determinants of switching among respondents residing in the nine Census regions of the U.S. Results reveal significant regional differences in the determinants of switching, especially in the effects of conversion, childhood affiliation and interdenominational marriage.     

A geomorphological mapping approach for the assessment of seabed geohazards and risk

Exploration and development of offshore hydrocarbon resources has advanced into remote deepwater regions over the last decade and poses significant technical challenges for the design and installation of wells and facilities at extreme water depths. Seafloor and shallow subsurface processes and conditions in these areas are complex and generally poorly understood, and the geohazards to development are larger scale and fundamentally different to those encountered onshore; consequently the geohazard risk to deepwater development projects is potentially significant and requires careful evaluation and mitigation during the front-end planning and engineering design stages of projects. There are no established industry standards or methods for the assessment of geohazards and engineering-quality geophysical data at the scale of development. The paper describes an integrated and systematic map-based approach for the assessment and mitigation of seabed geohazards and risk to proposed deepwater development. The approach employs a multi-disciplinary team working with engineering-quality field calibrated data to accurately map and assess seafloor ground conditions and ensure that development proposals are not exposed to intolerable geohazard risk. The approach taken is very similar to the practice of establishing geological models for land-based engineering projects, in which the complete geological history of the site is used to characterise and predict the performance of the ground. Such an approach is routine for major projects on land but so far does not seem to be common practice in the offshore industry. The paper illustrates the seafloor geomophological mapping approach developed. The products are being used to optimise development layouts to avoid geohazards where possible and to support site-specific engineering design of facilities based on a detailed understanding of the potential geohazard loadings and associated risk.     

Evolution of the Axial Geometry of the Southwest Indian Ocean Ridge between the Melville Fracture Zone and the Indian Ocean Triple Junction – Implications for Segmentation on Very Slow-Spreading Ridges

Geophysical data from 900 km of the Southwest Indian Ridge are used todescribe the pattern of evolution of the plate boundary between 61° Eand 70° E over the past 20 million years. The SWIR is anobliquely-opening, ultra slow-spreading axis, and east of61° E comprises a series of ridge sections, each about 100–120 kmin length. The orientation of these sections varies fromsub-orthogonal to oblique to the approximately N–S spreadingdirection. In general, the suborthogonal sections are shallower, commonlysubdivided into an array of discrete axial segments, and carry recognisablecentral magnetic anomalies. The majority of the oblique sections are single,continuous rifts without continuous axial magnetic signatures.Morphotectonics of the Southwest Indian Ridge crust have not previously beenwell constrained off-axis, and we here present sidescan sonar andswath bathymetric data up to 100 km from the ridge to demonstrate the complexities of its spatial and temporal evolution.A model is proposed that the segmentation style correlates with analong-axis variation between: (a) relatively thick crustal sections which overlie mantle sections with higher magmatic supply created in orthogonally-spreading segments and (b) those oblique sections associated with cooler, magmatically-starved mantle and thinner crust. These latter sections are formed at broad offset zones in theplate boundary, more precisely defined on faster-spreading ridges asnontransform discontinuities. The nonsystematic pattern of crustalconstruction, extensional basin formation and the absence of extension-parallel traces of discontinuities off-axis suggest that the oblique spreading sections are not fixed in space or time.     

Coastal upwelling along the north coast of Papua New Guinea and SST cooling over the pacific warm pool: A case study for the 2002/03 El Niño event

We investigate an overlooked mechanism—coastal upwelling—for sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the western side of the mean location of the Pacific warm pool (WSWP: 5°S–5°N, 140°E–150°E) prior to El Niño onset. We analyze various observed data such as the TRIangle Trans-Ocean buoy Network (TRITON) moored buoy data, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) data, satellite data and a hindcast experiment output by a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM). We focus on the precondition of the 2002/03 El Niño event, for which many datasets are available. Relatively cool water upwelled along the north coast of Papua New Guinea (PNG) during December 2001, prior to the onset of the 2002/03 El Niño event, and then spread out over a wider area to the northeast. Simultaneously, strong west-northerly surface winds occur along the north coast. Heat budget analysis of TRITON buoy data in the WSWP reveals that negative zonal heat advection due to eastward current is the main factor for cooling the mixed layer in the WSWP in contrast to the warming effect of the surface heat flux during the period. This cooling requires a source of colder water to the west. Similar analysis of OGCM outputs also suggests that the upwelled relatively cool water along the PNG north coast, and its northeastward extension to the equatorial region, contributes to cooling of the surface water over the WSWP mainly via negative zonal heat advection. Similar mechanisms are confirmed also for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events by analyses of OGCM outputs and historical SST data. The low SST in the WSWP generated a positive zonal SST gradient together with high SST east of the WSWP. It may contribute to enhancement of the westerly surface wind in this region, leading to the onset of the 2002/03 El Niño event.     

Human and climate forcing of zooplankton populations: Introduction

Zooplankton play a key role in the pelagic foodweb by controllingphytoplankton production and shaping pelagic ecosystems. Inaddition, because of their critical role as a food source forlarval and juvenile fish, the dynamics of zooplankton populationshave a significant influence on recruitment to fish stocks.In 1961, ICES convened the First Zooplankton Production Symposiumin Charlottenlund, Denmark. ICES also played a leading rolein the Second Zooplankton Production Symposium on "ZooplanktonProduction: measurement and role in global     

On the criteria for the initiation of motion in tidal inlets,deterministic and stochastic approaches

Details are given herein of the refinement and application of a three-dimensional layer integrated numerical model to predict morphological changes in tidal basins. The solution of governing differential equations, which consist of the conservation of mass and momentum for the hydrodynamics, the transport equation for the suspended sediment fluxes and the sediment mass conservation equation for the bed level changes are carried out by the use of Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI) Finite Difference Method (FDM). The model includes different criteria for the initiation of motion namely Shields (1936, Application of Similarity Principles and Turbulence Research to Bed load Movement, Hydrodynamics Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pub. No. 167), Kolahdoozan (1999, Numerical Modelling of Geomorphological Processes in Estuarine Waters, PhD Thesis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Bradford, Bradford, UK, 288) and Zanke (2003, On the Influence of Turbulence on the Initiation of Sediment Motion, International Journal of Sediment Research, 18(1), 17–31), to compare different aspects of flow conditions. As the flow is highly turbulent with the random nature of its components, many researchers have tried to express sediment transport processes by using stochastic approaches. In the current study both deterministic and stochastic methods are included in the numerical model to evaluate their accuracy and efficiency. To validate the numerical model results, laboratory measurements are used, with these being obtained from an earlier experimental program undertaken by the authors. Results of a short term bed level changes in a laboratory model harbor are included for the model verification purposes. Comparisons are undertaken using different criteria for the initiation of motion, with the results highlighting that the unsteadiness in the flow parameters included in the numerical model has a major effect on the bed level changes inside the harbor, in compare with the turbulence structure of the flow. The model is then applied to a real case study of the Humber Estuary, located in the UK, with comparisons being undertaken for different criteria for the initiation of motion, using both deterministic and stochastic approaches for the long term bed level predictions.