Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Use of Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate Strips in Soil Improvement

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Many studies have investigated polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polypropylene fibers in soil improvement. However, there is a lack of research using...     

The Flat Dilatometer Test in an Unsaturated Tropical Soil Site

The site characterization of unsaturated soils is well stablished based on laboratory tests, which are expensive and time-consuming. In-situ testing methods, such as the flat dilatometer test (DMT), are an alternative to the traditional approach of drilling, sampling, and laboratory testing. The literature on DMT interpretation is well established on saturated and well-behaved soils. Only few studies deal with DMT interpretation in unusual soils, and little is known about the influence of soil suction on this test. This paper presents and discusses the influence of soil suction on four DMT campaigns carried out in an unsaturated tropical soil site, also incorporating the soil suction influence on the DMT interpretation. Soil suction was estimated by the soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC) and water content profiles. The water content profiles range from 11.3 to 19.7% which corresponds to a suction range estimated by SWCCs mostly between 6 and 200 kPa. Soil suction significantly influenced DMT data up to 5 m depth at the studied site (the unsaturated active zone) increasing the intermediate DMT parameters. The average horizontal stress index (K_D) was equal to about 1.7 and the average dilatometer modulus (E_D) was about 4.7 MPa in the active zone and practically doubled their values due to in situ soil suction. The estimated peak friction angle (?) was 20–30% higher due to soil suction influence on DMT assuming the soil behaves as a sand like material. Soil suction must be considered to assess the behavior of the investigated soil by the DMT. The suction influence should be incorporated in the effective stress and this approach considerably improved the site characterization of the studied site.

     

Regional subglacial quarrying and abrasion below hard-bedded palaeo-ice streams crossing the Shield–Palaeozoic boundary of central Canada: the importance of substrate control

Three-dimensional surface visualization models derived from high-resolution LiDAR data provide new information about the type and scale of erosional processes below Late Wisconsin palaeo-ice streams traversing the boundary between Canadian Shield crystalline rocks with offlapping Palaeozoic limestones in central Ontario. The hard bed is directly analogous to that found below ice streams in East Antarctica and East Greenland and provides insight into the effects of abrupt changes in substrate type on subglacial processes. Erosion of hard crystalline Canadian Shield rock was largely ineffectual consisting of areal abrasion of rounded whalebacks and local lee side plucking. In contrast, fast flow over the strike of gently dipping well-bedded and jointed Palaeozoic limestones cut large flow-parallel grooves and ridges akin to mega-scale glacial lineations reflecting intense abrasion below narrow streams of subglacial debris dominated by hard crystalline Shield clasts (erodents). Regionally extensive plucking of structurally weak, well-jointed and bedded limestone produced large volumes of rubbly carbonate debris leaving a 25-km-wide belt of uncontrolled hummocky rubble terrain (long known as the Dummer Moraine in Southern Ontario) some 350 km long and locally as much as 10 m thick. Subglacial plucking and abrasion under fast flowing ice were highly effective in stripping limestone cover rocks from Precambrian basement, and over many glacial cycles, may have played a role in the location and excavation of numerous large and deep lake basins around the Shield–Palaeozoic boundary zone in North America.     

Human and climate forcing of zooplankton populations: Introduction

Zooplankton play a key role in the pelagic foodweb by controllingphytoplankton production and shaping pelagic ecosystems. Inaddition, because of their critical role as a food source forlarval and juvenile fish, the dynamics of zooplankton populationshave a significant influence on recruitment to fish stocks.In 1961, ICES convened the First Zooplankton Production Symposiumin Charlottenlund, Denmark. ICES also played a leading rolein the Second Zooplankton Production Symposium on "ZooplanktonProduction: measurement and role in global     

Fluid flow and pore pressure development throughout the evolution of a trough mouth fan,western Barents Sea

Using a combination of geophysical and geotechnical data from Storfjorden Trough Mouth Fan off southern Svalbard, we investigate the hydrogeology of the continental margin and how this is affected by Quaternary glacial advances and retreats over the continental shelf. The geotechnical results show that plumites, deposited during the deglaciation, have high porosities, permeabilities and compressibilities with respect to glacigenic debris flows and tills. These results together with margin stratigraphic models obtained from seismic reflection data were used as input for numerical finite element models to understand focusing of interstitial fluids on glaciated continental margins. The modelled evolution of the Storfjorden TMF shows that tills formed on the shelf following the onset of glacial sedimentation (ca. 1.5 Ma) acted as aquitards and therefore played a significant role in decreasing the vertical fluid flow towards the sea floor and diverting it towards the slope. The model shows that high overpressure ratios (up to λ ca. 0.6) developed below the shelf edge and on the middle slope. A more detailed model for the last 220 kyrs accounting for ice loading during glacial maxima shows that the formation of these aquitards on the shelf focused fluid flow towards the most permeable plumite sediments on the slope. The less permeable glacigenic debris flows that were deposited during glacial maxima on the slope hinder fluid evacuation from plumites allowing high overpressure ratios (up to λ ca. 0.7) to develop in the shallowest plumite layers. These high overpressures likely persist to the Present and are a critical precondition for submarine slope failure.     

Coastal upwelling along the north coast of Papua New Guinea and SST cooling over the pacific warm pool: A case study for the 2002/03 El Niño event

We investigate an overlooked mechanism—coastal upwelling—for sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the western side of the mean location of the Pacific warm pool (WSWP: 5°S–5°N, 140°E–150°E) prior to El Niño onset. We analyze various observed data such as the TRIangle Trans-Ocean buoy Network (TRITON) moored buoy data, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) data, satellite data and a hindcast experiment output by a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM). We focus on the precondition of the 2002/03 El Niño event, for which many datasets are available. Relatively cool water upwelled along the north coast of Papua New Guinea (PNG) during December 2001, prior to the onset of the 2002/03 El Niño event, and then spread out over a wider area to the northeast. Simultaneously, strong west-northerly surface winds occur along the north coast. Heat budget analysis of TRITON buoy data in the WSWP reveals that negative zonal heat advection due to eastward current is the main factor for cooling the mixed layer in the WSWP in contrast to the warming effect of the surface heat flux during the period. This cooling requires a source of colder water to the west. Similar analysis of OGCM outputs also suggests that the upwelled relatively cool water along the PNG north coast, and its northeastward extension to the equatorial region, contributes to cooling of the surface water over the WSWP mainly via negative zonal heat advection. Similar mechanisms are confirmed also for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events by analyses of OGCM outputs and historical SST data. The low SST in the WSWP generated a positive zonal SST gradient together with high SST east of the WSWP. It may contribute to enhancement of the westerly surface wind in this region, leading to the onset of the 2002/03 El Niño event.