This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. 相似文献
The presently active sinistral Xianshui He strike-slip fault (XSH) is a lithospheric scale strike-slip fault in the eastern Himalaya. In the study area this fault affects the eastern edge of the Konga Shan granitic massif, where it has caused both brittle and ductile deformation. A RbSr isochron and Nd and Pb isotope study of three samples, and a UPb zircon study of a single sample, were completed on the granite.
UPb data indicate a granite emplacement age of 12.8 ± 1.4 Ma. The RbSr isochrons show that the granite emplacement and the deformational event were synchronous, at around 12-10 Ma (minimum age for deformation). The Nd and Pb isotope compositions of whole rocks and K-feldspars indicate the involvement of Proterozoic continental crust, which is confirmed by UPb systematics indicating inherited zircons.
Sinistral faulting along the XSH began at the latest at 12 Ma and marks the extrusion toward the east of the West Sichuan and South China blocks, following their extrusion along the Red River fault zone between 50 and 21 Ma. 相似文献
Over the past century, Hong Kong port has experienced a fascinating development process as it has become one of the world's number one container ports. This paper explores some of the major external impacts and consequences of Hong Kong's past and current port development experience, with particular reference to environmental planning and control. After a brief introduction to Hong Kong's port, the paper focuses on the planning and management lessons related to the port's development. The paper then concludes with its impact on and reference for mainland China's port and port-city development. 相似文献
Summary The study of radiative transfer in clouds and fog requires a knowledge of basic radiation constants. For this purpose the volume extinction, scattering, and absorption coefficients, the maximum absorption coefficients for composite spectral lines, and the coefficients used to expand the phase function into a series of Legendre polynomials for analytic representation of the phase function are provided in tabular and graphical format. The analysis for cloud droplets is based upon the rigorous electromagnetic theory. All Mie computations are carried out in an exact manner avoiding any approximations. Absorption line constants as computed here are based upon the investigations ofElsasser withCulbertson [5]3) andWyatt, Stull, andPlass [18]. Tabulations are made on the basis of fifty spectral intervals covering the entire solar and infrared spectra. Polarization effects are disregarded in this study. 相似文献
Summary The 1986 GPS survey of Iceland aimed to: (1) establish geodetic control in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), to study destructive earthquakes there, (2) measure a country-wide network to form the basis of a new first order national network. 51 points were surveyed, with 20–30 km spacings within the SISZ and 100 km spacings elsewhere. The data were processed using the Bernese GPS software Version 3. Analysis was difficult due to poor satellite geometry and short-period ionospheric variations. However, an ambiguity-fixed, ionosphere-free solution gave accuracies of 1–2 cm in the horizontal and 2–3 cm in the vertical for the SISZ network and an ambiguity-free, ionosphere-free solution yielded accuracies of about 5 cm for the country-wide network. An ionosphere-free solution for the total survey with ambiguities fixed for the SISZ network only gave marginal additional improvements over the two separate solutions. GPS surveying has continued annually in Iceland with measurements in South Iceland in 1989 and 1992 (Hackman 1991; Sigmundsson 1992) and in North Iceland in 1987, 1990 and 1992 (Jahn et al. 1992; Foulger et al. 1992). 相似文献
Based on regular climatological and air quality data from the Greater Athens Area (GAA), the air pollution episodes observed in Athens during the period 1983–1990 were analysed and classified. The main characteristics of atmospheric conditions during days with high air pollution concentrations are summarized too. Model simulations show that the worst air pollution episodes in Athens occur during days with a critical balance between synoptic and mesoscale circulations and/or during days with warm advection in the lower troposphere. 相似文献