The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective

The latest iteration of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uncertainty guidance is simpler and easier to use than the previous version. However, its primary focus remains assessing “what is at risk” under climate change, thus is most suitable for dealing with the scientific uncertainties in Working Group I and part of Working Group II findings. I distinguish between tame and complex risks, arguing that the guidance is most suited to assessing tame risks. Climate change is a complex risk, and as such as can be divided into idealized, calculated and perceived risks. While science has claims to objectivity, risk has a specific value component: when measuring gain and loss, calculated risks compete with risky options to manage those risks. The IPCC is charged with calculating risk (IPCC 2007, p22) but the communication of key findings takes place in an environment of competing perceived risks. Recommendations for managing this complex environment include separating scientific and risk-based findings, treating uncertainties for each separately; strengthening the philosophical basis of uncertainty management; application of a methodical scientific research program; clearly communicating competing findings, especially in the social sciences; and application of multiple frame to policy-relevant findings as reflected in the literature.     

Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC

Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) received guidance on reporting understanding, certainty and/or confidence in findings using a common language, to better communicate with decision makers. However, a review of the IPCC conducted by the InterAcademy Council (2010) found that “the guidance was not consistently followed in AR4, leading to unnecessary errors . . . the guidance was often applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be falsified. In these cases the impression was often left, quite incorrectly, that a substantive finding was being presented.” Our comprehensive and quantitative analysis of findings and associated uncertainty in the AR4 supports the IAC findings and suggests opportunities for improvement in future assessments.     

Combined Effects of Tectonic and Landslide-Generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska During the M W 9.2 1964 Earthquake

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the $M_{\rm W}$ 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in landsliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5?min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211?million m³ (Haeussler et?al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269?C278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30?min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local landslide-generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et?al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131?C152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559?C572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides.     

Permeability profiles in granular aquifers using flowmeters in direct-push wells

Numerical hydrogeological models should ideally be based on the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K), a property rarely defined on the basis of sufficient data due to the lack of efficient characterization methods. Electromagnetic borehole flowmeter measurements during pumping in uncased wells can effectively provide a continuous vertical distribution of K in consolidated rocks. However, relatively few studies have used the flowmeter in screened wells penetrating unconsolidated aquifers, and tests conducted in gravel-packed wells have shown that flowmeter data may yield misleading results. This paper describes the practical application of flowmeter profiles in direct-push wells to measure K and delineate hydrofacies in heterogeneous unconsolidated aquifers having low-to-moderate K (10(-6) to 10(-4) m/s). The effect of direct-push well installation on K measurements in unconsolidated deposits is first assessed based on the previous work indicating that such installations minimize disturbance to the aquifer fabric. The installation and development of long-screen wells are then used in a case study validating K profiles from flowmeter tests at high-resolution intervals (15 cm) with K profiles derived from multilevel slug tests between packers at identical intervals. For 119 intervals tested in five different wells, the difference in log K values obtained from the two methods is consistently below 10%. Finally, a graphical approach to the interpretation of flowmeter profiles is proposed to delineate intervals corresponding to distinct hydrofacies, thus providing a method whereby both the scale and magnitude of K contrasts in heterogeneous unconsolidated aquifers may be represented.     

An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management

Effective flood incident management (FIM) requires successful operation of complex, interacting human and technological systems. A dynamic agent-based model of FIM processes has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy analysis and other practical applications. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. The multiagent simulation has been coupled with a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. A case study in the coastal town of Towyn in the United Kingdom has demonstrated the capacity of the model to analyse the risks of flooding to people, support flood emergency planning and appraise the benefits of flood incident management measures.     

Petrographic and geochemical evidence for an allochthonous, possibly impact melt, origin of pseudotachylite from the Vredefort Dome, South Africa

Hypotheses proposed to explain the origin of pseudotachylite bodies formed during impact cratering include: (1) frictional heating, (2) shock loading, (3) decompression or (4) drainage of impact melt into target rocks. In order to differentiate among these processes, we conducted detailed geochemical and petrographic analysis of the matrices in pseudotachylitic veins and dikes and of their respective wall rocks. Our analyses indicate that the chemical compositions of matrices locally deviate significantly from their immediate wall rocks and that assimilation of wall rock has substantially modified the pseudotachylite matrix compositions in places. Variable magnitudes of assimilation can be explained by the surface area of wall rock or its fragments in contact with melt, as well as the initial temperature and cooling rate of the pseudotachylitic melt. Chemical trends observed can be explained either by admixture of an exotic melt component with immediate wall rock or by mixing of melts derived from local lithologies. Trends in the compositional deviation of centimetre to metre-wide pseudotachylite dikes from their immediate wall rocks are consistent with the presence of a primary melt component having granitoid composition akin to the average composition of Vredefort Granophyre dikes. Within veins, melt transport can be geochemically and petrographically traced for distances of centimetres to metres, with the direction of melt transport from larger pseudotachylite veins toward smaller ones and into apophyses. Sulphide and silicate mineralogy indicates that the initial temperature of pseudotachylitic melt must have been at least 1200-1700 °C. Collectively, these characteristics point to an allochthonous origin of pseudotachylitic melt. We advocate the possibility that impact melt from the initially superheated impact melt sheet contributed to the formation of pseudotachylite bodies at Vredefort.     

New constraints on the provenance of hopanoids in the marine geologic record: Bacteriohopanepolyols in marine suboxic and anoxic environments

The abundance and structural diversity of bacteriohopanepolyols (BHPs) was examined in three marine pelagic environments that are characterized by strong vertical redox gradients and water column suboxia or anoxia. The abundance and, in most instances, structural diversity of BHPs was highest at depths where conditions were suboxic or anoxic. However, the majority of the BHP structures that were identified are environmentally cosmopolitan and their biological sources are presently not well constrained. An isomer of bacteriohopanetetrol (denoted BHT II) was observed at all three study sites in association with anoxic and suboxic conditions within the water column. Based on the absence of BHT II from terrigenous and oxic marine environments studied to date, and its strong association with suboxic and anoxic marine pelagic environments, we propose that BHT II is a promising candidate biomarker for water column suboxia and anoxia in the marine geologic record. The molecular fingerprint of BHPs in suspended and sinking particles and core-top sediments indicates that hopanoids produced within the water column are exported to marine sediments and that their biological source is most likely associated with settling particles and not the free-water phase. Based on our observations, BHPs likely represent an important input to the sedimentary hopanoid inventory, particularly in upwelling environments characterized by pelagic oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) and anoxic marine basins.     

A conceptual model of valley incision, planation and terrace formation during cold and arid permafrost conditions of Pleistocene southern England

Staircases of gravelly river terrace deposits in southern England occupy valleys typically underlain by frost-susceptible and brecciated bedrocks. The valleys developed during the Quaternary by alternating episodes of (1) brecciation, incision and planation through the bedrock, forming wide low-relief erosion surfaces; and (2) aggradation in braidplains of gravel a few meters thick that bury the erosion surfaces. A conceptual model to account for some of the terraces proposes that brecciation resulted from ice segregation in the ice-rich layer in the upper meters of Pleistocene permafrost, making them vulnerable to fluvial thermal erosion and therefore predisposing the bedrock to planation. The low gradients of the valleys were adjusted such that rivers transferred fine materials out of the basins but lacked the competence to remove gravel, which therefore accumulated within floodplains. The model challenges the prevailing view of incision during climate transitions. It attributes incision and planation to very cold and arid permafrost conditions, when rivers had limited discharges and hillslopes supplied limited volumes of stony debris into valley bottoms.     

Formula of incipient velocity for flooded vehicles

With the climate change caused by global warming, the occurrence probability of urban flooding due to flash floods has increased gradually. Flush floods propagate rapidly, which can lead to significant hazard to human life and property. Flood hazard to vehicles has become more noticeable and frequent in recent years. Therefore, it is important to investigate the behaviour of vehicles on flooded streets or roads. In the current study, a formula has been derived to predict the incipient velocity of flooded vehicles according to the mechanical condition of sliding equilibrium. A series of flume experiments were conducted using three types of scaled die-cast model vehicles, with two scales being tested for each type of vehicle. The experimental data obtained for the small-scale model vehicles were used to determine the two parameters in the derived formula, and the prediction accuracy of this formula was validated using the experimental data obtained for the large-scale model vehicles. Finally, the corresponding incipient velocities under various incoming depths were computed using this formula for these three prototype vehicles. It is found that for a specified vehicle, the value of incipient velocity reaches its minimum as the incoming flow depth approaches the height of the vehicle, and the smaller and lighter vehicle like Mini Cooper is the easiest to start sliding in floodwaters. The results can be used as a preliminary assessment to define the hazard to vehicles parking on flooded streets or roads.     

A review of undulated sediment features on Mediterranean prodeltas: distinguishing sediment transport structures from sediment deformation

Most Mediterranean prodeltas show undulated sediment features on the foresets of their Holocene wedges. These features have been described all along the Mediterranean for the last 30 years and interpreted as either soft sediment deformation and incipient landsliding, and more recently, as sediment transport structures. We perform a review and detailed analysis of these undulated sediment features using ultrahigh-resolution seismic and bathymetric data as well as geotechnical information and hydrodynamic time series and hydrographic transects. In this study we show that the characteristics of the sediment undulations (configuration of the reflections down section and between adjacent undulations and overall morphologic characteristics) are incompatible with a genesis by sediment deformation alone and do not show evidence of sediment deformation in most cases. Various processes in the benthic boundary layer can be invoked to explain the variety of features observed in the numerous areas displaying sediment undulations.