Potential effects of global climatic change on the phenology and yield of maize in venezuela

Simulated impacts of global and regional climate change, induced by an enhanced greenhouse effect and by Amazonian deforestation, on the phenology and yield of two grain corn cultivars in Venezuela (CENIAP PB-8 and OBREGON) are reported. Three sites were selected:Turén, Barinas andYaritagua, representing two important agricultural regions in the country. The CERES-Maize model, a mechanistic process-based model, in theDecision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used for the crop simulations. These simulations assume non-limiting nutrients, no pest damage and no damage from excess water; therefore, the results indicate only the difference between baseline and perturbed climatic conditions, when other conditions remain the same. Four greenhouse-induced global climate change scenarios, covering different sensitivity levels, and one deforestation-induced regional climate change scenario were used. The greenhouse scenarios assume increased air temperature, increased rainfall and decreased incoming solar radiation, as derived from atmospheric GCMs for doubled CO₂ conditions. The deforestation scenarios assume increased air temperature, increased incoming solar radiation and decreased rainfall, as predicted by coupled atmosphere-biosphere models for extensive deforestation of a portion of the Amazon basin. Two baseline climate years for each site were selected, one year with average precipitation and another with lower than average rainfall. Scenarios associated with the greenhouse effect cause a decrease in yield of both cultivars at all three sites, while the deforestation scenarios produce small changes. Sensitivity tests revealed the reasons for these responses. Increasing temperatures, especially daily maximum temperatures, reduce yield by reducing the duration of the phenological phases of both cultivars, as expected from CERES-Maize. The reduction of the duration of the kernel filling phase has the largest effect on yield. Increases of precipitation associated with greenhouse warming have no effects on yield, because these sites already have adequate precipitation; however, the crop model used here does not simulate potential negative effects of excess water, which could have important consequences in terms of soil erosion and nutrient leaching. Increases in solar radiation increased yields, according to the non-saturating light response of the photosynthesis rate of a C₄ plant like corn, compensating for reduced yields from increased temperatures in deforestation scenarios. In the greenhouse scenarios, reduced insolation (due to increased cloud cover) and increased temperatures combine to reduce yields; a combination of temperature increase with a reduction in solar radiation produces fewer and lighter kernels.A report of thePAN-EARTH Project, Venezuela Case Study.     

Relationships between Trophic State, Paleosalinity and Climatic Changes during the First Holocene Marine Transgression in Rocha Lagoon, Southern Uruguay

Paleolimnological data are presented on trophic development, climatic change and sea level variations in Rocha Lagoon, a 72 km² coastal lagoon in southern Uruguay. Using a sediment core that extended from 7000 to about 3700 yr BP, analyses of organic matter, carbonate, diatoms and chrysophyte cysts were used to track the early Holocene paleolimnological conditions of Rocha Lagoon. Opal phytoliths were also counted and identified, both temperature and humidity indices were calculated, and Opal Phytolith Association Zones (OPAZ) were identified by performing Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCO). Diatom Association Zones (DAZ) corresponding to marine/brackish and brackish/freshwater episodes were closely related to changes in trophic state. Those DAZ representing marine/brackish stages exhibited a lower trophic state than those DAZ dominated by brackish and freshwater diatoms. This highlights that during the first Holocene marine transgression, Rocha Lagoon did not continuously exhibit marine/brackish conditions as reported in previous papers. Instead, three brackish/freshwater episodes related to sea level variation and changes in humidity were identified. The first episode, by ~6000 yr BP, was related to sea level change as no significant changes in either temperature or humidity indices were observed. The second episode, between 5000 and 4400 yr BP, was related to both a sea level decrease and an increase in humidity, as a transition from humid to very humid climate was inferred. Concomitant decreases in salinity and increases in trophic state were also observed. The third episode, after ~4000 yr BP, was related to the end of the first Holocene regressive phase when sea level was slightly below present levels. Further decreases in salinity and increases in trophic state were detected. The paleoclimatic trends inferred in this study were in close agreement with other regional studies on climatic change, as cool temperatures were inferred. However, major changes in humidity were also detected. A humid to very humid climate was inferred for ~7000–4500 yr BP, but the occurrence of a semiarid/arid climate was inferred for ~4500–3700 yr BP. Our data suggest that during transgressive and regressive events there might be higher frequency and lower amplitude sea level oscillations that might lead to changes in salinity and trophic state of coastal aquatic systems. Such oscillations could only be tracked by high resolution analyses of sedimentary records and could be best interpreted with complementary data on paleoclimate. In addition, microfossils such as diatoms and opal phytoliths were shown to be very sensitive to such paleoenvironmental changes.     

Small-Scale Horizontal Variability of Mean and Turbulent Quantities in the Nocturnal Boundary Layer

The study of the boundary layer can be most difficult when it is in transition and forced by a complex surface, such as an urban area. Here, a novel combination of ground-based remote sensing and in situ instrumentation in central London, UK, is deployed, aiming to capture the full evolution of the urban boundary layer (UBL) from night-time until the fully-developed convective phase. In contrast with the night-time stable boundary layer observed over rural areas, the night-time UBL is weakly convective. Therefore, a new approach for the detection of the morning-transition and rapid-growth phases is introduced, based on the sharp, quasi-linear increase of the mixing height. The urban morning-transition phase varied in duration between 0.5 and 4 h and the growth rate of the mixing layer during the rapid-growth phase had a strong positive relationship with the convective velocity scale, and a weaker, negative relationship with wind speed. Wind shear was found to be higher during the night-time and morning-transition phases than the rapid-growth phase and the shear production of turbulent kinetic energy near the mixing-layer top was around six times larger than surface shear production in summer, and around 1.5 times larger in winter. In summer under low winds, low-level jets dominated the UBL, and shear production was greater than buoyant production during the night-time and the morning-transition phase near the mixing-layer top. Within the rapid-growth phase, buoyant production dominated at the surface, but shear production dominated in the upper half of the UBL. These results imply that regional flows such as low-level jets play an important role alongside surface forcing in determining UBL structure and growth.     

Nocturnal Intermittent Coupling Between the Interior of a Pine Forest and the Air Above It

A 1-year set of measurements of CO₂ and energy turbulent fluxes above and within a 25-m pine forest in southern Brazil is analyzed. The study focuses on the coupling state between two levels and its impact on flux determination by the eddy-covariance method. The turbulent series are split in their typical temporal scales using the multiresolution decomposition, a method that allows proper identification of the time scales of the turbulent events. Initially, four case studies are presented: a continually turbulent, a continually calm, a calm then turbulent, and an intermittent night. During transitions from calm to turbulent, large scalar fluxes of opposing signs occur at both levels, suggesting the transference of air accumulated in the canopy during the stagnant period both upwards and downwards. Average fluxes are shown for the entire period as a function of turbulence intensity and a canopy Richardson number, used as an indicator of the canopy coupling state. Above the canopy, CO₂ and sensible heat fluxes decrease in magnitude both at the neutral and at the very stable limit, while below the canopy they increase monotonically with the canopy Richardson number. Latent heat fluxes decrease at both levels as the canopy air becomes more stable. The average temporal scales of the turbulent fluxes at both levels approach each other in neutral conditions, indicating that the levels are coupled in that case. Average CO₂ fluxes during turbulent periods that succeed very calm ones are appreciably larger than the overall average above the canopy and smaller than the average or negative within the canopy, indicating that the transfer of air accumulated during calm portions at later turbulent intervals affects the flux average. The implications of this process for mean flux determination are discussed.     

The Prestige crisis: operational oceanography applied to oil recovery, by the Basque fishing fleet

On 19th November 2002, the oil tanker Prestige (containing 77,000 tonnes of heavy fuel no. 2 (M100)) sank in 3500 m of water, off the coast of northwestern Spain. Intermittent discharge of oil from the stricken tanker, combined with large-scale sea surface dispersion, created a tracking and recovery problem. Initially, conventional oil recovery approaches were adopted, close to the wreck. With time and distance from the source, the oil dispersed dramatically and became less viscous. Consequently, a unique monitoring, prediction and data dissemination system was established, based upon the principles of 'operational oceanography'; this utilised in situ tracked buoys and numerical (spill trajectory) modelling outputs, in combination with remote sensing (satellite sensors and visual observation). Overall, wind effects on the surface waters were found to be the most important mechanism controlling the smaller oil slick movements. The recovery operation involved up to 180 fishing boats, 9-30 m in length. Such labour-intensive recovery of the oil (21,000 tonnes, representing an unprecedented ratio of 6.6 tonnes at sea, per tonne recovered on land) continued over a 10 month period. The overall recovery at sea, by the fishing vessels, represented 63% of the total oil recovered at sea; this compares to only 37% recovered by specialised 'counter- pollution' vessels.     

In the Core of the Night-Effects of Intermittent Mixing on a Horizontally Heterogeneous Surface

Intermittent breakdowns that accompany wind gusts at the surface are responsible for a large fraction of the turbulent exchange between the surface and the upper boundary layer in the core of clear nights. Vertical and horizontal structure of the breakdowns are investigated using data from a network of 26 stations in an area of 30 km × 30 km. Surface heterogeneity in the area includes complex terrain with different types of land cover. We treat the fine-scale landscape structure near sensors (sheltering) as a separate component of heterogeneity. These features have important consequences on the spatial distribution of mean variables and surface fluxes. We found that breakdowns connect the surface layer to a higher level (level H_C). Weak wind gusts below a threshold (approximately 1.5 m s^-1) mix the air down to the colder ground, cooling the surface layer. On the other hand, wind gusts above this threshold promote mixing with upper levels, warming the surface layer. The spatial maximum of surface temperature over the network can be used as an estimate of the temperature at H_C, allowing vertical gradients and stability to be approximated. Minimum temperature is a function of topography and sheltering. Appreciable surface fluxes at night occur primarily at high, open locations, and can be large enough there to influencearea-averaged values. Surface-fluxparameterizations currently used in mesoscale models were tested first by estimating fluxes at each station and aggregating, and then by formingarea-averages before estimating fluxes. Results show that these formulations underestimate the average surface fluxes over a region for most of the nights.     

Lateglacial and Holocene palaeoenvironments at Sierra La Madera,northwestern Mexico: Sharp signals of Younger Dryas and North American monsoon

During the last glacial termination, the climate system experienced intense global variations whose causes and impacts are not fully defined, particularly for low latitudes. The northwestern Mexico Sky Islands present a climate-sensitive ideal setting to record palaeoecological and palaeoclimatic changes due to their physiographic complexity and location in the ecotone between temperate and tropical ecosystems. High-resolution pollen analysis and a detailed sedimentological study were conducted at the Ciénega Tonibabi tropical thorn scrub site. The 15 540–0 cal a bp nearly continuous record shows that the North Atlantic Ocean did have a cold and humid climatic influence during the glacial stages of the end of the Pleistocene, including a sharp pulse during the Younger Dryas. However, a shift to the Pacific Ocean influence occurred during the Holocene, which led to the development of the El Niño conditions prevailing today. Colder and warmer phases follow one another with higher or lower winter precipitation, including a sharp Bølling–Allerød and development and intensification of the North American monsoon. They are reflected in hydrological changes as well as in the advances, retreats and intermingling of coniferous forests and tropical thorn scrub.