The Central Iberian arc, an orocline centered in the Iberian Massif and some implications for the Variscan belt

An arcuate structure, comparable in size with the Ibero-Armorican arc, is delineated by Variscan folds and magnetic anomalies in the Central Iberian Zone of the Iberian Massif. Called the Central Iberian arc, its sense of curvature is opposite to that of the Ibero-Armorican arc, and its core is occupied by the Galicia-Trás-os-Montes Zone of NW Iberia, which includes the Rheic suture. Other zones of the Iberian Massif are bent by the arc, but the Ossa-Morena and South Portuguese zones are not involved. The arc formed during the Late Carboniferous, at final stages of thermal relaxation and collapse, and an origin related with right-lateral ductile transpression at the scale of the Variscan belt is proposed. The Central Iberian arc explains the width of the Central Iberian Zone, clarifies the position of the allochthonous terranes of NW Iberia, and opens new perspectives for correlations with the rest of the Variscan belt, in particular, with the Armorican Massif, whose central zone represents the continuation of the southwest branch of the arc detached by strike-slip tectonics.     

Influence of the Load Wavelength on the Permeability of a Viscosity Interface in the Mantle

Assuming a radially stratified Newtonian mantle in a steady-state approximation, we demonstrate that the permeability of a viscosity interface at 660-km depth strongly depends on the wavelength of buoyancy forces driving the flow. The flow induced by long-wavelength loads penetrates through the boundary freely even if the viscosity increases by two orders. In contrast, the boundary is practically impermeable for short-wavelength loads located in the upper mantle. Thus, a stepwise increase of viscosity is a significant obstacle for small descending features in the upper mantle, but huge upper mantle downwellings, or upwellings formed in the-lower mantle can overcome it easily. This indicates that certain care is necessary in interpreting the seismic structure of the mantle by means of flow models. The global tomographic image includes only the first few degrees of the harmonic series and, consequently, its interpretation in terms of a present-day flow field results in a predominantly whole-mantle circulation even for extreme viscosity contrasts.     

The earthquake sequence of May 1951 at Jucuapa, El Salvador

Three earthquakes that happened over two days in May 1951 caused extensive damage to villages in a small area of eastern El Salvador (Central America). Contemporary hypocentral solutions indicated focal depths, confirmed by re-calculations using available seismic data, of the order of 90 km, suggesting events associated with the subducted Cocos plate. Macroseismic observations strongly indicate that the earthquakes were of very shallow focus and this is supported by wave-form modeling and the appearance of seismograms recorded in Guatemala. A re-evaluation of the location and source characteristics for these events is presented, together with a fault plane solution and additional macroseismic evidence. The implications for seismic hazard and risk assessment in Central America, where shallow earthquakes of moderate magnitude, frequently occurring in clusters, pose the greatest threat to settlements which, like the area affected by these events, are concentrated along the axis of Quaternary volcanoes.     

A simple model of a building cumulus cloud

Summary A model of a building cumulus structure is described. The one-stage model published in[1] was used to describe ascent of two cloudy parcels that a cloud is supposed to be formed of. The other ascent is assumed to take place after the first cloud element sinks back as a result of evaporative cooling. The numerical results and their evaluation are given for various rates of mixing at the cloud top level of the first cloud volume.     

The distribution of chlorophyll-a and dominant planktonic components in the coastal transition zone off Concepción, central Chile, during different oceanographic conditions

The oceanographic setting and the planktonic distribution in the coastal transition zone off Concepción (∼35-38°S, ∼73-77°W), an area characterized by its high biological production, were assessed during two different seasons: austral spring with equatorward upwelling favorable winds and austral winter with predominately northerly winds. Oceanographic and biological data (total chlorophyll-a, particulate organic carbon, microplankton, large mesozooplankton >500 μm as potential consumers of microplankton) were obtained during two cruises (October 1998, July 1999) together with satellite imagery for wind stress, geostrophic flow, surface temperature, and chlorophyll-a data. The physical environment during the spring sampling was typical of the upwelling period in this region, with a well-defined density front in the shelf-break area and high concentrations of surface chlorophyll-a (>5 mg m⁻³) on the shelf over the Itata terrace. During the winter sampling, highly variable though weakly upwelling-favorable winds were observed along with lower surface chlorophyll-a values (<2 mg m⁻³) on the shelf. In the oceanic area (>100 km from the coast), cyclonic and anti-cyclonic eddies were evident in the flow field during both periods, the former coinciding with higher chlorophyll-a contents (∼1 mg m⁻³) than in the surrounding waters. Also, a cold, chlorophyll-a rich filament was well defined during the spring sampling, extending from the shelf out to 350-400 km offshore. Along a cross-shelf transect, the micro- and meso-planktonic assemblages displayed higher coastal abundances during the spring cruise but secondary peaks appeared in the oceanic area during the winter cruise, coinciding with the distribution of the eddies. These results suggest that the mesoscale features in this region, in combination with upwelling, play a role in potentially increasing the biological productivity of the coastal transition zone off Concepción.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.