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81.
82.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Early history 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Robin K. McGuire 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(3):329-338
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the evaluation of annual frequencies of exceedence of ground motion levels (typically designated by peak ground acceleration or by spectral accelerations) at a site. The result of a PSHA is a seismic hazard curve (annual frequency of exceedence vs ground motion amplitude) or a uniform hazard spectrum (spectral amplitude vs structural period, for a fixed annual frequency of exceedence). Analyses of this type were first conceived in the 1960s and have become the basis for the seismic design of engineered facilities ranging from common buildings designed according to building codes to critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. This Historical Note traces the early history of PSHA. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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84.
Estimating suspended sediment concentrations from turbidity measurements and the calibration problem 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In situ turbidity meters are being increasingly used to generate continuous records of suspended sediment concentration in rivers. However, the usefulness of the information obtained depends heavily on the existence of a close relationship between fluctuations in suspended sediment concentration and turbidity and the calibration procedure that relates suspended sediment concentration to the turbidity meter's signal. This study assesses the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and turbidity for a small (1·19 km2) rural catchment in southern Brazil and evaluates two calibration methods by comparing the estimates of suspended sediment concentration obtained from the calibrated turbidity readings with direct measurements obtained using a USDH 48 suspended sediment sampler. With the first calibration method, the calibration relationship is derived by relating the turbidity readings to simultaneous measurements of concentration obtained from suspended sediment samples collected from the vicinity of the turbidity probe during flood events. With the second method, the calibration is based on the readings obtained from the turbidity meter when the probe immersed in samples of known concentration prepared using soils collected from the catchment. Overall, there was a close link between fluctuations in suspended sediment concentration and turbidity in the stream at the outlet of the catchment, and the estimates of sediment concentration obtained using the first calibration method corresponded closely with the conventionally measured sediment concentrations. However, use of the second calibration method introduced appreciable errors. When the estimated sediment concentrations were compared with the measured values, the mean errors were ± 122 mg l?1 and + 601 mg l?1 for the first and second calibration procedures respectively. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
85.
Claude Robin Jean-Philippe Eissen Pablo Samaniego Hervé Martin Minard Hall Joseph Cotten 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(3):233-258
The Mojanda–Fuya Fuya Volcanic Complex consists of two nearby volcanoes, Mojanda and Fuya Fuya. The older one, Mojanda volcano
(0.6 to 0.2 Ma), was first constructed by andesites and high-silica andesites forming a large stratovolcano (Lower Mojanda).
This edifice was capped by a basaltic andesite and andesitic cone (Upper Mojanda), which collapsed later to form a 3-km-wide
summit caldera, after large phreatomagmatic eruptions. The Lower Fuya Fuya edifice was constructed by the extrusion of viscous
Si-rich andesitic lavas and dacitic domes, and the emission of a thick sequence of pyroclastic-flow and fallout deposits which
include two voluminous rhyolitic layers. An intermediate construction phase at Fuya Fuya is represented by a mainly effusive
cone, andesitic in composition (San Bartolo edifice), the construction of which was interrupted by a major sector collapse
in the Late Pleistocene. Finally, a complex of thick siliceous lavas and domes was emplaced within the avalanche amphitheatre,
forming the Upper Fuya Fuya volcanic centre. This paper shows that the general evolution from an effusive to an explosive
eruptive style is related to a progressive adakitic contribution to the magma source. Although all the rocks of the complex
are included in the medium-K field of continental arcs, the Fuya Fuya suite (61–75 wt.% SiO2) shows depletion in Y and HREE and high Sr/Y and La/Yb values, compared to the less silicic Mojanda suite (55–66.5 wt.% SiO2). The Mojanda calc-alkaline suite was generated by partial melting of an adakite-metasomatised mantle source that left a
residue with 2% garnet, followed by fractional crystallization of dominant plagioclase + pyroxene + olivine at shallow, intra-crustal
depths. For Fuya Fuya, geochemical and mineralogical data suggest either (1) partial melting of a similar metasomatised mantle
with more garnet in the residue (4%), followed by fractional crystallization involving plagioclase, amphibole and pyroxene,
or (2) mixing of mafic mantle-derived magma from the Mojanda suite and slab melts, followed by the same fractional crystallization
process. 相似文献
86.
87.
Thomas Genty Bruno Bussière Robin Potvin Mostafa Benzaazoua Gérald J. Zagury 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(8):2387-2401
Oxidation of sulphide mining waste can generate acid mine drainage (AMD) that has the potential to seriously affect the ecosystems. Acid mine drainage is characterised by a high acidity, high concentrations of sulphates and metals. To reduce the environmental impacts due to AMD, neutralisation using limestone drains is an option proposed in the literature and used around the world. The present study focuses on the influence of the carbonate rock mineralogy and their particle size on the neutralising capacity. The tests were performed in two different anoxic conditions: in batch reactors, and in columns having a hydraulic retention time of 15?h. The results showed that the neutralisation capacity of calcite was more important than for dolomitic rock, and smaller particle size gave higher alkalinity production (fine calcite dissolved faster in contact with AMD). A characterization of metal precipitate in sludge and in limestone coating was performed and demonstrated that gypsum, lepidocrocite and goethite were the predominant secondary minerals to be formed. Finally, this study underlines that anoxic limestone drain cannot be used alone to treat high iron concentrated AMD. 相似文献
88.
James M. Murphy Ben B. B. Booth Chris A. Boulton Robin T. Clark Glen R. Harris Jason A. Lowe David M. H. Sexton 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2855-2885
We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO2 concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO2 emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes. 相似文献
89.
Approximately 40 per cent of the shorelines of the lower Great Lakes are backed by relatively weak Quaternary sediments, and similar shorelines are found on many middle and high-latitude coasts. The high rates of bluff recession which are characteristic of these areas lead to economic losses through erosion of land and damage to buildings, and may prompt a wide range of measures designed to reduce erosion and protect property. Assessment of the physical problem and of possible solutions to it can best be achieved through a sediment budget approach. This is illustrated through a case study of an area near Grimsby, Ontario. The volume of sediment supply to the beach was calculated from measurements of bluff height and annual recession rates. The potential volume of longshore sediment transport was determined from the wave climate of the area and computer modelling of wave refraction. The relationship between sediment supply and potential transport rate can be used to assess the magnitude of the sediment deficit or surplus at points along the shoreline, and this provides an insight into the controls on alongshore variations in recession rates. 相似文献
90.
Julie A. Winkler Logan Soldo Ying Tang Todd Forbush David S. Douches Chris M. Long Courtney P. Leisner C. Robin Buell 《Climatic change》2018,151(2):275-287
Climate change is anticipated to influence all parts of agricultural production systems. However, the potential impacts on crop storage have rarely been assessed, even though storage is an important component of a grower’s marketing strategy and is essential for the continuous supply of a commodity for processors, exporters, and consumers. The Michigan chip-processing potato industry provides an example of the importance of crop storage. Michigan is the largest producer of chip-processing potatoes in the USA, and potatoes are stored on farms from September to June. We use an ensemble of climate projections developed for three future time slices (early, mid, and late century) from 16 climate models forced by three greenhouse gas concentration pathways to assess future changes in potato storage conditions. Our findings indicate an increased future demand for ventilation and/or refrigeration immediately after harvest and again in spring and early summer, even for the early-century time slice. Furthermore, the period of reliably cold storage temperatures during winter is anticipated, when averaged across all models, to shorten by 11–17 days in Michigan’s primary production area and 14–20 days in the more southern secondary area by mid-century, and by 15–29 days and 31–35 days, respectively, for the northern and southern production areas by late century. The level of uncertainty, as indicated by the ensemble range, is large, although the sign of the projected changes in storage parameters is consistent. This case study provides an example of the potentially large effects of climate change on the storage conditions for agricultural commodities. 相似文献