Evaluating relative sensitivity of SWAT‐simulated nitrogen discharge to projected climate and land cover changes for two watersheds in North Carolina,USA

We investigated how projected changes in land cover and climate affected simulated nitrate (NO₃^?) and organic nitrogen discharge for two watersheds within the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina, USA, for years 2010–2070. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model to predict nitrogen discharge using (1) atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (2) land cover change predicted by the Integrated Climate and Land Use Change project and (3) precipitation and temperature simulated by two statistically downscaled and bias‐corrected Global Circulation Models. We determined the sensitivity of simulated nitrogen discharge to separate changes in each treatment [(1) CO₂, (2) land cover and (3) precipitation and temperature (PT)] by comparing each treatment to a reference condition. Results showed that nitrogen discharges were most sensitive to changes in PT over the 60‐year simulation. Nitrogen discharges had similar sensitivities to the CO₂ and land cover treatments, which were only one‐tenth the influence of the PT treatment. Under the CO₂ treatment, nitrogen discharges increased with increasing ambient CO₂. NO₃^? discharge decreased with increased urbanization; however, organic nitrogen had a varied response. Under the PT treatment, there was high spatial variability in nitrogen discharges. In a single year, certain sub‐basins showed an 80% increase in nitrogen discharge relative to reference, while others showed a 400% decrease. With nitrogen discharge showing high sensitivity to PT change, we suggest that more emphasis should be placed on investigating impacts of PT on nutrient transport in the Neuse River Basin. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA     

Discriminating between tectonic and eustatic controls on the stratigraphic record in the Paris basin

The quantification of tectonic and eustatic factors in the control of the sedimentary record is one of the main questions in sedimentary basin dynamics. We propose two methods allowing: (i) 3D measurement of accommodation at basin scale and (ii) to decipher between local (10–100 km wavelength) and basin-scale accommodation. The local signal is necessarily of tectonic origin, the basin-scale signal is of both eustatic and large tectonic origin. The measurement of accommodation requires (a) high-resolution time-lines calibrated in ages (sequence stratigraphy on well-logs and biostratigraphy on cores), (b) decompacted lithologies (well-logs), and (c) palaeodepth/palaeoaltitude (sedimentology and well-logs). Application of these methods to the intracratonic Paris basin during the Lias (early Jurassic) suggests a tectonic origin for the 1–5 Myr stratigraphic cycles, with basin-scale flexure during transgressive half-cycles, and 10–100 km uplift of basement units, during regressive half-cycles.     

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.     

An improved glacial isostatic adjustment model for the British Isles

The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) of the British Isles is of interest due to the constraints that can be provided on key model parameters such as the global meltwater signal, local ice sheet history and viscoelastic earth structure. A number of recent studies have modelled relative sea‐level (RSL) data from this region to constrain model parameters. As indicated in these studies, the sensitivity of these data to both local and global parameters results in a highly non‐unique problem. This study aims to address this inherent non‐uniqueness by combining a previously published British–Irish ice model that is based on the most recent geomorphological data with a new global ice sheet model that provides an accurate prediction of eustatic sea‐level change. In addition, constraints from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of present‐day vertical land motion are considered alongside the entirety of RSL data from both Great Britain and Ireland. A model solution is found that provides a high‐quality fit to both the RSL data and the GPS data. Within the range of earth viscosity values considered, the optimal data model fits were achieved with a relatively thin lithosphere (71 km), upper mantle viscosities in the range 4–6 × 10²⁰ Pa s and lower mantle viscosities ≥ 3 × 10²² Pa s. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Market-oriented conservation governance: The particularities of place

Conservation policy and practice is increasingly turning towards market-based interventions to reconcile the growing conflicts between environmental conservation and rural livelihood needs. This short introductory paper to the special issue on “market-oriented conservation governance” critically investigates the growing commitment to markets as a means of meeting conservation objectives and livelihood security. We distinguish market oriented conservation from neoliberal conservation and argue for a grounded, empirically rich investigation into the passive and active promotion of markets in conservation landscapes – analysis which pays attention to how and why certain markets are promoted by ENGOs, governments and private sector, as well as how rural people negotiate livelihoods and markets when adjusting to conservation pressures. Such an approach takes seriously how the particularities of place, from local harvests to trans-local trade, shape market-oriented conservation in practice and expose the messiness of such ventures. The range of papers in this special issue show how neither neoliberal nor market-based interventions in conservation are uniform in character, impact and outcome, and that while identifying the patterns and logic behind these processes remains crucial, the basis for understanding how markets inform conservation, must be done by drawing on empirical data that speaks clearly to how actors variously engage the logic of market-driven conservation in terms of their histories and contemporary realities. We argue that doing so makes it possible to understand not only what is ‘new’ about contemporary market-oriented conservation but also its continuities with earlier forms of command and control conservation.     

Seasonal and Annual Fluxes of Nutrients and Organic Matter from Large Rivers to the Arctic Ocean and Surrounding Seas

River inputs of nutrients and organic matter impact the biogeochemistry of arctic estuaries and the Arctic Ocean as a whole, yet there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of fluvial fluxes at the pan-Arctic scale. Samples from the six largest arctic rivers, with a combined watershed area of 11.3?×?10⁶?km², have revealed strong seasonal variations in constituent concentrations and fluxes within rivers as well as large differences among the rivers. Specifically, we investigate fluxes of dissolved organic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen, total dissolved phosphorus, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, nitrate, and silica. This is the first time that seasonal and annual constituent fluxes have been determined using consistent sampling and analytical methods at the pan-Arctic scale and consequently provide the best available estimates for constituent flux from land to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. Given the large inputs of river water to the relatively small Arctic Ocean and the dramatic impacts that climate change is having in the Arctic, it is particularly urgent that we establish the contemporary river fluxes so that we will be able to detect future changes and evaluate the impact of the changes on the biogeochemistry of the receiving coastal and ocean systems.     

A morphological study of Durance River terraces from Tallard to Avignon, South-East France

This study of Durance River terrace morphologies in the lower 200 km of the valley shows that terrace ages, elevations and heights above the river generally all increase upstream. It is based on extensive fieldwork checked against geological maps and memoirs. Subdivision of the valley, based on gorges and former tectonic blockages, is relevant because there are no Durance terraces downstream of Mallemort and there are considerable differences between each reach. For most of the Pleistocene, the river was diverted through the Crau Plains to the sea. Below the Mirabeau gorge, there are a few narrow low and middle terraces. The best terrace development is between Mirabeau and the Sisteron defile. Upstream of that barrier there is glacial dominance. Changes in terrace continuity are illustrated by means of height-range diagrams and their rates of dissection have been quantified approximately, based on cosmic ray exposure age modelling. Climate forcing cannot explain all the changes found. The influence of tectonic activity was found to increase in an upstream direction and also with age on the southwestern flanks of the Alps.