Developing carbon budgets for UK agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry out to 2022

This paper derives a notional future carbon budget for UK agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF). The budget is based on a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) derived for a range of mitigation measures for specified adoption scenarios for the years 2012, 2017 and 2022. The results indicate that in 2022 around 6.36 MtCO₂e could be abated at negative or zero cost. Furthermore, in the same year, over 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 MtCO₂e) could be abated at a cost of less than the 2022 Shadow Price of Carbon (£34 (tCO₂e)^???1). The development of robust MACCs faces a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal in ALULUCF relative to other sectors. Nevertheless, the current analysis provides an initial route map of efficient measures for mitigation in UK agriculture.     

Radiation Fog. Part II: Large-Eddy Simulations in Very Stable Conditions

Despite the long interest in understanding fog processes and improving fog parametrization, numerical modelling of fog remains an important challenge in short-term forecasts, due to the diversity and scales of the mechanisms involved with fog parametrization. In this study, we focus on the key processes that govern performance in fog modelling in very stable conditions. Large-eddy simulations at very high resolution are tested against the observations from Cardington, UK, presented in Part I of this study. The radiation fog forms in statically stable conditions. Five hours after its formation, the fog deepens rapidly and a significant cooling associated with the formation of positive curvature can be seen in the vertical profiles of potential temperature around 50 m. After roughly 8 h of development, a mixed layer has formed at the base of the fog, driven by surface instability. We show that the model captures well the change in static stability, but fails at capturing correctly the mechanisms associated with the deepening of the fog layer. Different possible mechanisms are discussed and tested with the model, such as additional drainage flow and cold air advection, which might result from local heterogeneity. The sensitivity of these results to different microphysical parametrizations is also briefly addressed.     

Entropy,complexity, and spatial information

We pose the central problem of defining a measure of complexity, specifically for spatial systems in general, city systems in particular. The measures we adopt are based on Shannon’s (in Bell Syst Tech J 27:379–423, 623–656, 1948) definition of information. We introduce this measure and argue that increasing information is equivalent to increasing complexity, and we show that for spatial distributions, this involves a trade-off between the density of the distribution and the number of events that characterize it; as cities get bigger and are characterized by more events—more places or locations, information increases, all other things being equal. But sometimes the distribution changes at a faster rate than the number of events and thus information can decrease even if a city grows. We develop these ideas using various information measures. We first demonstrate their applicability to various distributions of population in London over the last 100 years, then to a wider region of London which is divided into bands of zones at increasing distances from the core, and finally to the evolution of the street system that characterizes the built-up area of London from 1786 to the present day. We conclude by arguing that we need to relate these measures to other measures of complexity, to choose a wider array of examples, and to extend the analysis to two-dimensional spatial systems.     

Selling a natural community: Exploring the role of representations in promoting a new urban development

We explore the rhetoric and symbolism deployed in the course of selling residential properties at Hobsonville Point, a new development in Auckland. Specifically, we ask what understanding of community is promoted in this development, and how this understanding is represented in promotional material. Our study is informed by analysis of newspaper articles, promotional material and planning/legal documents as well as field observation (2011–2012). We conclude that appealing to a contemporary yearning for nature and social cohesion at an urban coastal location has generated a situation in which community is being ‘sold’ at Hobsonville Point, yet paradoxically is yet to be found.     

Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change

This paper examines the uncertainty in the change in the heat content in the ocean component of a general circulation model. We describe the design and implementation of our statistical methodology. Using an ensemble of model runs and an emulator, we produce an estimate of the full probability distribution function (PDF) for the change in upper ocean heat in an Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model, the Community Climate System Model v. 3, across a multi-dimensional input space. We show how the emulator of the GCM’s heat content change and hence, the PDF, can be validated and how implausible outcomes from the emulator can be identified when compared to observational estimates of the metric. In addition, the paper describes how the emulator outcomes and related uncertainty information might inform estimates of the same metric from a multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble. We illustrate how to (1) construct an ensemble based on experiment design methods, (2) construct and evaluate an emulator for a particular metric of a complex model, (3) validate the emulator using observational estimates and explore the input space with respect to implausible outcomes and (4) contribute to the understanding of uncertainties within a multi-model ensemble. Finally, we estimate the most likely value for heat content change and its uncertainty for the model, with respect to both observations and the uncertainty in the value for the input parameters.     

Optical spectroscopy of high proper motion stars: new M dwarfs within 10 pc and the closest pair of subdwarfs

We present spectra of 59 nearby star candidates, M dwarfs and white dwarfs, previously identified using high proper motion catalogues and the DENIS database. We review the existing spectral classification schemes and spectroscopic parallax calibrations in the near-infrared J band and derive spectral types and distances of the nearby candidates. Forty-two stars have spectroscopic distances smaller than 25 pc, three of them being white dwarfs. Two targets lie within 10 pc, one M8 star at 10.0 pc (APMPM J0103−3738), and one M4 star at 8.3 pc (L 225−57). One star, LHS 73, is found to be among the few subdwarfs lying within 20 pc. Furthermore, together with LHS 72, it probably belongs to the closest pair of subdwarfs we know.     

First Estimate of the Thick Disc Mass Function

In the present paper various observational data are used to compare seven most common models proposed to describe the behaviour of the interstellar extinction in different parts of the sky. The data for field stars, open and globular clusters are used to select the most adequate model at different distances and for different directions in the Galaxy. The results of this study allow to select the best models for particular distances and directions. They also make it possible to propose a synthesized model describing the interstellar extinction. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Osmium,tungsten, and chromium isotopes in sediments and in Ni‐rich spinel at the K‐T boundary: Signature of a chondritic impactor

Abstract— It is now established that a large extraterrestrial object hit the Earth at the end of the Cretaceous period, about 65 Ma ago. We have investigated Re‐Os, Hf‐W, and Mn‐Cr isotope systems in sediments from the Cretaceous and the Paleogene in order to characterize the type of impactor. Within the Cretaceous‐Tertiary (K‐T) boundary layer, extraterrestrial material is mixed with terrestrial material, causing a dilution of the extraterrestrial isotope signature that is difficult to quantify. A phase essentially composed of Ni‐rich spinel, formed in the atmosphere mainly from melted projectile material, is likely to contain the extraterrestrial isotopic signature of the impactor. We show that the analysis of spinel is indeed the best approach to determine the initial isotope composition of the impactor, and that W and Cr isotopes confirm that the projectile was a carbonaceous chondrite.