Urbanization impacts on flood risks based on urban growth data and coupled flood models

Natural Hazards - Urbanization increases regional impervious surface area, which generally reduces hydrologic response time and therefore increases flood risk. The objective of this work is to...     

The structure and dynamics of 2-dimensional fluids in swelling clays

The interlayer pores of swelling 2:1 clays provide an ideal 2-dimensional environment in which to study confined fluids. In this paper we discuss our understanding of the structure and dynamics of interlayer fluid species in expanded clays, based primarily on the outcome of recent molecular modelling and neutron scattering studies. Counterion solvation is compared with that measured in bulk solutions, and at a local level the cation-oxygen coordination is found to be remarkably similar in these two environments. However, for the monovalent ions the contribution to the first coordination shell from the clay surfaces increases with counterion radius. This gives rise to inner-sphere (surface) complexes in the case of potassium and caesium. In this context, the location of the negative clay surface charge (i.e. arising from octahedral or tetrahedral substitution) is also found to be of major importance. Divalent cations, such as calcium, eagerly solvate to form outer-sphere complexes. These complexes are able to pin adjacent clay layers together, and thereby prevent colloidal swelling. Confined water molecules form hydrogen bonds to each other and to the clays' surfaces. In this way their local environment relaxes to close to the bulk water structure within two molecular layers of the clay surface. Finally, we discuss the way in which the simple organic molecules methane, methanol and ethylene glycol behave in the interlayer region of hydrated clays. Quasi-elastic neutron scattering of isotopically labelled interlayer CH₃OD and (CH₂OD)₂ in deuterated clay allows us to measure the diffusion of the CH₃- and CH₂-groups in both clay and liquid environments. We find that in both the one-layer methanol solvates and the two-layer glycol solvates the diffusion of the most mobile organic molecules is close to that in the bulk solution.     

Variation in river multi-element chemistry related to bedrock buffering: an example from the Adirondack region of northern New York, USA

Water from four north-flowing rivers (Oswegatchie, Grasse, Raquette, and West Branch of the St. Regis) traversing three distinct geologic terranes (Adirondack Highlands, Adirondack Lowlands, St. Lawrence Valley), originating in the acidified northern Adirondack region, display rapid spatial changes in downriver multi-element chemistry and physical parameters. Downriver, most soluble elements increase (Ba, Ca, Cu, K, Mg, Na, Rb, S, and Sr) while statistically significant decreases in insoluble elements (Al, Ce, Dy, Er, Fe, Gd, La, Mn, Nd, Pr, and Y) also occur. Lithium, Si, and Zr did not show a consistent increasing or decreasing trend. Concentrations of most elements measured on June 5, 2008 were greater than 7?weeks later; however, greater discharge and lower pH enhanced Al concentrations occurred during the later sampling date. Elemental ratios track changes in lithology, anthropogenic influence, and pH. The Raquette River shows the least variation in elemental concentrations because of storage in numerous hydropower reservoirs and has non-detectable concentrations of some redox sensitive elements such as Co, Ni, and V. Oswegatchie tributaries display similar geochemical trends dependent upon their location and local bedrock and show geochemical trends along the trunks of major rivers that are also evident in smaller drainage basins. Comparison with analytical results from the Western Adirondack Stream Survey also indicates acidification is prevalent in the Adirondack Highlands, particularly in the Oswegatchie headwaters during periods of high flow, but acidity is rapidly buffered downriver due to interaction with marble in the Adirondack Lowlands.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

Coupling between subtropical cloud feedback and the local hydrological cycle in a climate model

In HadGEM2-A, AMIP experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures respond to uniform and patterned +4 K SST perturbations with strong positive cloud feedbacks in the subtropical stratocumulus/trade cumulus transition regions. Over the subtropical Northeast Pacific at 137°W/26°N, the boundary layer cloud fraction reduces considerably in the AMIP +4 K patterned SST experiment. The near-surface wind speed and the air-sea temperature difference reduces, while the near-surface relative humidity increases. These changes limit the local increase in surface evaporation to just 3 W/m² or 0.6 %/K. Previous studies have suggested that increases in surface evaporation may be required to maintain maritime boundary layer cloud in a warmer climate. This suggests that the supply of water vapour from surface evaporation may not be increasing enough to maintain the low level cloud fraction in the warmer climate in HadGEM2-A. Sensitivity tests which force the surface evaporation to increase substantially in the +4 K patterned SST experiment result in smaller changes in boundary layer cloud and a weaker cloud feedback in HadGEM2-A, supporting this idea. Although global mean surface evaporation in climate models increases robustly with global temperature (and the resulting increase in atmospheric radiative cooling), local values may increase much less, having a significant impact on cloud feedback. These results suggest a coupling between cloud feedback and the hydrological cycle via changes in the patterns of surface evaporation. A better understanding of both the factors controlling local changes in surface evaporation and the sensitivity of clouds to such changes may be required to understand the reasons for inter-model differences in subtropical cloud feedback.     

Uncertainties in field-line tracing in the magnetosphere. Part II: the complete internal geomagnetic field

The discussion in the preceding paper is restricted to the uncertainties in magnetic-field-iine tracing in the magnetosphere resulting from published standard errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients that define the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field (i.e. g_n⁰ ± g_n⁰). Numerical estimates of these uncertainties based on an analytic equation for axisymmetric field lines are in excellent agreement with independent computational estimates based on stepwise numerical integration along magnetic field lines. This comparison confirms the accuracy of the computer program used in the present paper to estimate the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing that arise from published standard errors in the full set of spherical harmonic coefficients, which define the complete (non-axisymmetric) internal geomagnetic field (i.e. g_n^m ± g_n^m and h_n^m ± h_n^m). An algorithm is formulated that greatly reduces the computing time required to estimate these uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing. The validity of this algorithm is checked numerically for both the axisymmetric part of the internal geomagnetic field in the general case (1 n 10) and the complete internal geomagnetic field in a restrictive case (0 m n, 1 n 3). On this basis it is assumed that the algorithm can be used with confidence in those cases for which the computing time would otherwise be prohibitively long. For the complete internal geomagnetic field, the maximum characteristic uncertainty in the geocentric distance of a field line that crosses the geomagnetic equator at a nominal dipolar distance of 2 R_E is typically 100 km. The corresponding characteristic uncertainty for a field line that crosses the geomagnetic equator at a nominal dipolar distance of 6 R_E is typically 500 km. Histograms and scatter plots showing the characteristic uncertainties associated with magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere are presented for a range of illustrative examples. Finally, estimates are given for the maximum uncertainties in the locations of the conjugate points of selected geophysical observatories. Numerical estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere, including the associated uncertainties in thelocations of the conjugate points of geophysical observatories, should be regarded as first approximations in the sense that these estimates are only as accurate as the published standard errors in the full set of spherical harmomic coefficients. As in the preceding paper, howerver, all computational techniques developed in this paper can be used to derive more realistic estimates of the uncertainties in magnetic-field-line tracing in the magnetosphere, following further progress in the determination of more accurate standard errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients.Also Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

Saving lives in earthquakes: successes and failures in seismic protection since 1960

This paper will look at what we have and have not achieved in reducing the risks to human life from earthquakes in the last 50 years. It will review how success has been achieved in a few parts of the world, and consider what needs to be done by the scientific and engineering community globally to assist in the future task of bringing earthquake risks under control. The first part of the talk will re-examine what we know about the casualties from earthquakes in the last 50 years. Almost 80% of about 1 million deaths turn out to have been caused by just ten great earthquakes, together affecting a tiny proportion of the territory at risk from heavy ground shaking. The disparity between richer and poorer countries is also evident, not only in fatality rates, but also in their rates of change. But the existing casualty database turns out to be a very poor basis for observing such differences, not only because of the small number of lethal events, but also because of the very limited data on causes of death, types and causes of injury. These have been examined in detail in only a few, recent events. All that can be said with certainty is that a few wealthier earthquake-prone countries or regions have made impressive progress in reducing the risk of death from earthquakes, while most of the rest of the world has achieved comparatively little, and in some areas the problem has become much worse. The second part of the paper looks in more detail at what has been achieved country-by-country. Based on a new expert-group survey of key individuals involved in earthquake risk mitigation, it will examine what are perceived to be the successes and failures of risk mitigation in each country or group of countries. This survey will be used to highlight the achievements of those countries which have successfully tackled their earthquake risk; it will examine the processes of earthquake risk mitigation, from campaigning to retrofitting, and it will consider to what extent the achievement is the result of affluence, scientific and technical activity, political advocacy, public awareness, or the experience of destructive events. It will ask to what extent the approaches pioneered by the global leaders can be adopted by the rest. The final section of the talk will argue that it can be useful to view earthquake protection activity as a public health matter to be advanced in a manner similar to globally successful disease-control measures: it will be argued that the key components of such programmes—building in protection; harnessing new technology and creating a safety culture—must be the key components of earthquake protection strategies also. It will consider the contribution which the scientific and engineering community can make to bringing down today’s unacceptably high global earthquake risk. It will be suggested that this role is wider than commonly understood and needs to include: Building-in protection