Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes and Water Resources Management in the Rhine Basin

The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine basin (CHR) hascarried out a researchproject to assess the impact of climate change on the river flow conditionsin the Rhine basin. Along abottom-up line, different detailed hydrological models with hourly and dailytime steps have beendeveloped for representative sub-catchments of the Rhine basin. Along atop-down line, a water balancemodel for the entire Rhine basin has been developed, which calculates monthlydischarges and which wastested on the scale of the major tributaries of the Rhine. Using this set ofmodels, the effects of climatechange on the discharge regime in different parts of the Rhine basin werecalculated using the results ofUKHI and XCCC GCM-experiments. All models indicate the same trends in thechanges: higher winterdischarge as a result of intensified snow-melt and increased winterprecipitation, and lower summerdischarge due to the reduced winter snow storage and an increase ofevapotranspiration. When the resultsare considered in more detail, however, several differences show up. These canfirstly be attributed todifferent physical characteristics of the studied areas, but different spatialand temporal scales used in themodelling and different representations of several hydrological processes(e.g., evapotranspiration,snow melt) are responsible for the differences found as well. Climate changecan affect various socio-economicsectors. Higher temperatures may threaten winter tourism in the lower wintersport areas. The hydrologicalchanges will increase flood risk during winter, whilst low flows during summerwill adversely affectinland navigation, and reduce water availability for agriculture and industry.Balancing the required actionsagainst economic cost and the existing uncertainties in the climate changescenarios, a policy of `no-regretand flexibility' in water management planning and design is recommended, whereanticipatory adaptivemeasures in response to climate change impacts are undertaken in combinationwith ongoing activities.     

High-resolution seismic studies of gas hydrates west of Svalbard

 A strong bottom-simulating reflection (BSR) with high-amplitude variations is detectable in high- resolution reflection seismic profiles west of Svalbard. Above the BSR, anomalously high velocities up to 1840 m/s, calculated from high-frequency ocean-bottom hydrophone (HF-OBH) data, indicate the existence of gas-hydrated sediments. Below the BSR, a low-velocity layer, interpreted as gas-bearing sediments, shows thickness variations from 12 to 25 m. In addition, two other low-velocity layers clearly containing free gas are detected within the classic hydrate stability zone (HSZ) where, a theoretical viewpoint, free gas cannot exist. Received: 6 August 1997 / Revision received: 26 January 1998     

Large-Scale and Mesoscale Distribution of Plankton Biomass and Metabolic Activity in the Northeastern Central Atlantic

Plankton biomass and indices of metabolism and growth [electron transport system (ETS), glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) and aspartate transcarbamylase (ATC) activities] were studied over a 2,800 km east-west section of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean (21°N) in <200, 200–500 and >;500 µm size classes. On the large-scale, zooplankton (>;200 µm) enzymatic activities increased westward in the study section, where large cyanobacteria chains (Trichodesmium spp.) were observed. Parallel to it, an increase in medium calanoids (1–2 mm length) was observed towards the western part of the transect, whereas small calanoids (<1 mm) were dominant throughout the boundary area of the subtropical gyre. Microplankton ETS and mesoplankton ETS and ATC activities seemed to match the wave length of low frequency waves. Our results suggest that such waves are related to the observed enhancement of metabolic activity of micro- and mesoplankton. The large-scale and mesoscale variability observed give evidence of the inadequacy of assuming a steady-state picture of the euphotic zone of tropical and subtropical waters.     

The Utilization and Modeling of Photo-Fenton Process as a Single Unit in Textile Wastewater Treatment

Studies on the direct application of the photo-Fenton process (PFOP) to disinfect and decontaminate textile wastewater are rare. The output of the artificial neural network (ANN) models applied to the wastewater of a textile factory producing woven fabrics, which is used to assess the efficiency of the PFOP process, are investigated and compared with each other in this study. The highest PFOP efficiency is obtained at a pH of 3. Chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS) and color removal rates are 94%, 90%, and 96%, respectively. The data are modeled with ANNs and nonlinear external input autoregressive ANNs (NARX-ANN) using the MATLAB R2020a software program. Both Levenberg–Marquardt (trainlm) and scaled conjugate gradient (trainscg) algorithms are employed in the ANN and NARX-ANN models, whereas hyperbolic tangent sigmoid (Tansig) and logistic sigmoid (Logsig) functions are superimposed on the hidden layer in the ANN model, and Tansig functions are superimposed on the NARX-ANN model. It is determined that the developed ANN models are more effective in estimating the PFOP efficiency. The mean squared error is 0.000 953, and the coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.96 661.     

Real-time envelope cross-correlation detector: application to induced seismicity in the Insheim and Landau deep geothermal reservoirs

We develop and test a real-time envelope cross-correlation detector for use in seismic response plans to mitigate hazard of induced seismicity. The incoming seismological data are cross-correlated in real-time with a set of previously recorded master events. For robustness against small changes in the earthquake source locations or in the focal mechanisms we cross-correlate the envelopes of the seismograms rather than the seismograms themselves. Two sequenced detection conditions are implemented: After passing a single trace cross-correlation condition, a network cross-correlation is calculated taking amplitude ratios between stations into account. Besides detecting the earthquake and assigning it to the respective reservoir, real-time magnitudes are important for seismic response plans. We estimate the magnitudes of induced microseismicity using the relative amplitudes between master event and detected event. The real-time detector is implemented as a SeisComP3 module. We carry out offline and online performance tests using seismic monitoring data of the Insheim and Landau geothermal power plants (Upper Rhine Graben, Germany), also including blasts from a nearby quarry. The comparison of the automatic real-time catalogue with a manually processed catalogue shows, that with the implemented parameters events are always correctly assigned to the respective reservoir (4 km distance between reservoirs) or the quarry (8 km and 10 km distance, respectively, from the reservoirs). The real-time catalogue achieves a magnitude of completeness around 0.0. Four per cent of the events assigned to the Insheim reservoir and zero per cent of the Landau events are misdetections. All wrong detections are local tectonic events, whereas none are caused by seismic noise.     

A 4D variational assimilation scheme with partition method for nearshore wave models

This paper summarizes the development steps of a 4D variational assimilation scheme for nearshore wave models. A partition method is applied for adjusting both wave boundary conditions and wind fields. Nonstationary conditions are assimilated by providing defined correlations of model inputs in time. The scheme is implemented into the SWAN model. Twin experiments covering both stationary and nonstationary wave conditions are carried out to assess the adequacy of the proposed scheme. Stationary experiments are carried out considering separately windsea, swells, and mixed sea. Cost functions decline to less than 5% and RMS spectrum errors are reduced to less than 10%. The nonstationary experiment covers 1 day simulation under mixed wave conditions with assimilation windows of 3 h. RMS spectrum errors are reduced to less than 10% after 30 iterations in most assimilation windows. The results show that for spacially uniform model inputs, model accuracy is improved notably by the assimilation scheme throughout the computational domain. It is found that under wave conditions in which observed spectra can be well classified, the assimilation scheme is able to improve model results significantly.     

Evaluation of recent hydro-climatic changes in four tributaries of the Niger River Basin (West Africa)

West Africa experienced severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s, posing a threat to water resources. A wetter climate more recently suggests recovery from the drought. The Mann-Kendall trend and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect probable trends in weather elements in four sub-basins of the Niger River Basin between 1970 and 2010. The cross-entropy method was used to detect breakpoints in rainfall and runoff, Spearman’s rank test for correlation between the two, and cross-correlation analysis for possible lags. Results showed an overall increase in rainfall and runoff and a decrease in sunshine duration. Spearman’s coefficients suggest significant (5%) moderate to strong rainfall–runoff correlation for three sub-basins. A significant lower runoff was observed around 1979, with a rainfall break around 1992, indicating possible cessation of the drought. Temperatures increased significantly, at 0.02–0.05°C year^-1, with a negative wind speed trend for most stations. Half of the stations exhibited an increase in potential evapotranspiration.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR Not assigned     

Development of an operational low-flow index for hydrological drought monitoring over Europe

Near real-time monitoring of hydrological drought requires the implementation of an index capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the phenomenon. Starting from a dataset of modelled daily streamflow data, a low-flow index was developed based on the total water deficit of the discharge values below a certain threshold. In order to account for a range of hydrological regimes, a daily 95th percentile threshold was adopted, which was computed by means of a 31-day moving window. The observed historical total water deficits were statistically fitted by means of the exponential distribution and the corresponding probability values were used as a measure of hydrological drought severity. This approach has the advantage that it directly exploits daily streamflow values, as well as allowing a near real-time update of the index at regular time steps (i.e. 10 days, or dekad). The proposed approach was implemented on discharge data simulated by the LISFLOOD model over Europe during the period 1995–2015; its reliability was tested on four case studies found within the European drought reference database, as well as against the most recent summer drought observed in Central Europe in 2015. These validations, even if only qualitative, highlighted the ability of the index to capture the timing (starting date and duration) of the main historical hydrological drought events, and its good performance in comparison with the commonly used standardized runoff index (SRI). Additionally, the spatial evolution of the most recent event was captured well in a simulated near real-time test case, suggesting the suitability of the index for operational implementation within the European Drought Observatory.     

From Hale–Bopp's Activity to Properties of its Nucleus

Because of the outstanding brightness of comet Hale–Boppreliable production rates of several moleculescould be measured over a wide range of heliocentric distances.The H₂O-activity of a comet is closelyconnected with the energy balance and the composition of itssurface. It is often assumed that more volatilemolecules originate from subsurface regions. The CO observationsprovided an important data base for abetter understanding of this matter. A thermal model has beenapplied to calculate gas production rates ofHale–Bopp. The strong obliquity of the spin axis causespronounced seasonal effects and, therefore, anasymmetry of water activity with respect to perihelion. By comparingmeasured and calculated rates properties of the nucleus have been derived.