An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

Grain‐scale pressure variations and chemical equilibrium in high‐grade metamorphic rocks

In the classical view of metamorphic microstructures, fast viscous relaxation (and so constant pressure) is assumed, with diffusion being the limiting factor in equilibration. This contribution is focused on the only other possible scenario – fast diffusion and slow viscous relaxation – and brings an alternative interpretation of microstructures typical of high‐grade metamorphic rocks. In contrast to the pressure vessel mechanical model applied to pressure variation associated with coesite inclusions in various host minerals, a multi‐anvil mechanical model is proposed in which strong single crystals and weak grain boundaries can maintain pressure variation at geological time‐scales in a polycrystalline material. In such a mechanical context, exsolution lamellae in feldspar are used to show that feldspar can sustain large differential stresses (>10 kbar) at geological time‐scales. Furthermore, it is argued that the existence of grain‐scale pressure gradients combined with diffusional equilibrium may explain chemical zoning preserved in reaction rims. Assuming zero net flux across the microstructure, an equilibrium thermodynamic method is introduced for inferring pressure variation corresponding to the chemical zoning. This new barometric method is applied to plagioclase rims around kyanite in felsic granulite (Bohemian Massif, Czech Republic), yielding a grain‐scale pressure variation of 8 kbar. In this approach, kinetic factors are not invoked to account for mineral composition zoning preserved in rocks metamorphosed at high grade.     

Correction to: Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment,Paraíba,Brazil

Natural Hazards - The article “Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil”, written by da...     

Mercury cycling during acid rain recovery at the forested Lesní potok catchment,Czech Republic

From 2011 to 2019, mercury (Hg) stores and fluxes were studied in the small forested catchment Lesní potok (LES) in the central Czech Republic using the watershed mass balance approach together with internal measurements. Mean input fluxes of Hg via open bulk deposition, beech throughfall and spruce throughfall during the periodwere 2.9, 3.9 and 7.6 μg m⁻² year⁻¹, respectively. These values were considerably lower than corresponding deposition Hg fluxes reported in the early years of the 21st century from catchments in Germany. Current bulk precipitation inputs at unimpacted Czech mountainous sites were lower than those in Germany. The largest Hg inputs to the catchment were via litterfall, averaging 22.6 and 17.8 μg m⁻² year⁻¹ for beech and spruce stands. The average Hg input, based on the sum of mean litterfall and throughfall deposition, was 23.0 μg m⁻² year⁻¹, compared to the estimated Hg output in runoff of 0.5 μg m⁻² year⁻¹, which is low compared to other reported values. Thus, only ~2% of Hg input is exported in stream runoff. Stream water Hg was only weakly related to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) but both concentrations were positively correlated with water temperature. The estimated total soil Hg pool averaged 47.5 mg m⁻², only 4% of which was in the O-horizon. Thus Hg in the O-horizon pool represents 72 years of deposition at the current input flux and 3800 years of export at the current runoff flux. Age-dating by ¹⁴C suggested that organic soil contains Hg from recent deposition, while mineral soil at 40–80 cm depth contained 4400-year old carbon, suggesting the soil had accumulated atmospheric Hg inputs through millennia to reach the highest soil Hg pool of the soil profile. These findings suggest that industrial era intensification of the Hg cycle is superimposed on a slower-paced Hg cycle during most of the Holocene.     

Spatially distributed tracer‐aided modelling to explore water and isotope transport,storage and mixing in a pristine,humid tropical catchment

Rapidly transforming headwater catchments in the humid tropics provide important resources for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystem connectivity. However, such resources for downstream use remain unstudied. To improve understanding of the behaviour and influence of pristine rainforests on water and tracer fluxes, we adapted the relatively parsimonious, spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall–runoff (STARR) model using event‐based stable isotope data for the 3.2‐km² San Lorencito catchment in Costa Rica. STARR was used to simulate rainforest interception of water and stable isotopes, which showed a significant isotopic enrichment in throughfall compared with gross rainfall. Acceptable concurrent simulations of discharge (Kling–Gupta efficiency [KGE] ~0.8) and stable isotopes in stream water (KGE ~0.6) at high spatial (10 m) and temporal (hourly) resolution indicated a rapidly responding system. Around 90% of average annual streamflow (2,099 mm) was composed of quick, near‐surface runoff components, whereas only ~10% originated from groundwater in deeper layers. Simulated actual evapotranspiration (ET) from interception and soil storage were low (~420 mm/year) due to high relative humidity (average 96%) and cloud cover limiting radiation inputs. Modelling suggested a highly variable groundwater storage (~10 to 500 mm) in this steep, fractured volcanic catchment that sustains dry season baseflows. This groundwater is concentrated in riparian areas as an alluvial–colluvial aquifer connected to the stream. This was supported by rainfall–runoff isotope simulations, showing a “flashy” stream response to rainfall with only a moderate damping effect and a constant isotope signature from deeper groundwater (~400‐mm additional mixing volume) during baseflow. The work serves as a first attempt to apply a spatially distributed tracer‐aided model to a tropical rainforest environment exploring the hydrological functioning of a steep, fractured‐volcanic catchment. We also highlight limitations and propose a roadmap for future data collection and spatially distributed tracer‐aided model development in tropical headwater catchments.     

Late Quaternary (Marine Isotope Stage 3 to Recent) sedimentary evolution of the Basque shelf (southern Bay of Biscay)

Late Quaternary (MIS 3 to Recent) oceanographic evolution of the Basque shelf has been analysed for the first time based on the sedimentological analysis of three cores obtained from the middle and outer shelves. The cores are located in two interfluves separated by the San Sebastian canyon. The variability of the percentage of the planktonic foraminifera species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sin. and of δ¹⁸O_bull allowed us to identify the influence of colder and warmer waters in the Basque shelf during the late Quaternary. From ～56 cal. ka BP to the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (19 cal. ka BP) the sedimentary record shows a decreasing trend in the mean grain size that correlates with the eustatic sea‐level fall. The last Deglaciation (19–11.5 cal. ka BP) is characterized by a sea‐level rise that produced an important hiatus in the western outer shelf. During the Holocene, the middle and outer shelves present different behaviours. From 11.5 to 6.7 cal. ka BP, in the outer shelf the sea‐level rise that started during the Deglaciation produced a hiatus, whereas in the middle shelf the sedimentary succession records the presence of warm to temperate waters. Between 6.7–4.9 cal. ka BP, the entrance of cold surface water‐masses that only affected the middle shelf has been identified, and temperate to warm waters occurred in the outer shelf. The cold surface water‐masses retreated during 4.9–4.3 cal. ka BP in the middle shelf. Finally, from 4.3 cal. ka BP to Recent, the middle shelf registers a hiatus due to sea‐level stabilization after a generalized transgression, synchronous to a decrease in the energy of the water‐masses in the outer shelf. In conclusion, the environmental changes detected in the Basque shelf are attributed to both regional and eustatic sea‐level changes.     

Holocene paleoclimate inferred from stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) values in Sphagnum cellulose,Mohos peat bog,Romania

Journal of Paleolimnology - We measured stable isotopes (δ18O and δ13C) in Sphagnum cellulose that was extracted from a long peat core drilled in the ombrotrophic Mohos peat bog, Ciomadul...     

Ecological distribution of Stephanodiscus niagarae Ehrenberg in central Mexico and niche modeling for its last glacial maximum habitat suitability in the Nearctic realm

Journal of Paleolimnology - Stephanodiscus niagarae Ehrenberg is currently restricted to specific regions of central Mexico, however, during the late Pleistocene, it had a wider distribution in the...