Aquatic Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment of Chemicals in Wet Weather Discharges in the Sydney Region, New South Wales, Australia

Sydney Water has completed a risk assessment to assess the risks to human health and aquatic organisms in creeks, rivers, estuaries and ocean waters affected by wet weather sewage overflows, stormwater and sewage treatment plant discharges. The risk assessment methodology consists of a comparison of measured and predicted concentrations of chemicals with toxicity reference values. Estimates of receiving water chemical concentrations were derived using data from a 10-year period so that the variable rainfall pattern was represented. Computer models were used to simulate and predict wet weather discharges during this ten year period. Risks were validated by bioassays and bioassessments. Risks to aquatic life from wet weather discharges were attributed to 14 chemicals at one or more of the sites and stormwater was the predominate source of the chemicals. There were no risks to people engaged in water based activities. Noncarcinogenic risks from fish ingestion are predicted at three sites. Predicted cancer risks for most individual chemicals were relatively small. Carcinogenic risks were typically associated with organochlorine compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, dichlorobenzene, and arsenic. The predicted cancer risks also appear to be largely the result of stormwater rather than sewage overflow inputs and largely due to historical contamination by organochlorine pesticides. It is expected the concentrations of these chemicals will decrease over time.     

Coupling land use allocation models with raster GIS

As geographic information systems (GIS) have moved from information storage and retrieval operations towards more decision support functions, there is a need for more integration of spatial analytical modules that can assist in locational decisions. This paper presents a methodology for coupling land use allocation models with a raster GIS. For raster systems, the integration of any decision module has been limited by the size of raster datasets that may contain hundreds of thousands of pixels. Therefore, decision heuristics have been used rather than exact methods such as mathematical programming models. For the problem of land use allocation, the special structure of the generalized assignment problem is used here to handle large scale datasets. The advantage of the mathematical programming approach is the additional information associated with the dual variables and opportunity costs that can be used in subsequent sensitivity analyses. Received: 7 April 1998/Accepted: 2 October 1998     

Changes in Climate Extremes Over the Australian Region and New Zealand During the Twentieth Century

Analyses of high quality data show that there have been some interesting recent changes in the incidence of some climate extremes in the Australian region and New Zealand.     

Evidence of a Mixed-Layer Dynamics Contribution to the Entrainment Process

The internal thermal boundary layer developing over the Mediterranean during a cold-air outbreak associated with a Tramontane event has been studied by means of airborne lidar, in situ sensors, and a modelling approach that consisted of nesting the University of Washington (UW) planetary boundary-layer (PBL) model in an advective zero-order jump model. This approach bypasses some of the deficiencies associated with each model: the absence of the dynamics in the mixed layer for the zero-order jump model and the lack of an inversion at the PBL top for the UW PBL model. Particular attention is given to the parameterization of the entrainment flux at the PBL top. Values of the entrainment closure parameter derived with the model when matching PBL structure observations are much lower than those derived with standard zero-order jump models. They also are in good agreement with values measured in different meteorological situations by other studies. This improvement is a result of the introduction of turbulent kinetic energy production in the mixed layer.     

The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely

Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England.     

Mapping Submerged Aquatic Vegetation with GIS in the Caloosahatchee Estuary: Evaluation of Different Interpolation Methods

This article evaluates different spatial interpolation methods for mapping submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the Caloosahatchee Estuary, Florida. Data used for interpolation were collected by the Submersed Aquatic Vegetation Early Warning System (SAVEWS). The system consists of hydro-acoustic equipment, which operates from a slow-moving boat and records bottom depth, seagrass height, and seagrass density. This information is coupled with geographic location coordinates from a Global Positioning System (GPS) and stored together in digital files, representing SAV status at points along transect lines. Adequate spatial interpolation is needed to present the SAV information, including density, height, and water depth, as spatially continuous data for mapping and for comparison between seasons and years. Interpolation methods examined in this study include ordinary kriging with five different semivariance models combined with a variable number of neighboring points, the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method with different parameters, and the triangulated irregular network (TIN) method with linear and quintic options. Interpolation results were compared with survey data at selected calibration transects to examine the suitability of different interpolation methods. Suitability was quantified by the determination coefficient (R2) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between interpolated and observed values. The most suitable interpolation method was identified as the one yielding the highest R2 value and/or the lowest RMSE value. For different geographic conditions, seasons, and SAV parameters, different interpolation methods were recommended. This study identified that kriging was more suitable than the IDW or TIN method for spatial interpolation of all SAV parameters measured. It also suggested that transect data with irregular spatial distribution patterns such as SAV parameters are sensitive to interpolation methods. An inappropriate interpolation method such as TIN can lead to erroneous spatial representation of the SAV status. With a functional geographic system and adequate computing power, the evaluation and selection of interpolation methods can be automated and quantitative, leading to a more efficient and accurate decision.     

Contributions of groundwater conditions to soil and water salinization

 Salinization is the process whereby the concentration of dissolved salts in water and soil is increased due to natural or human-induced processes. Water is lost through one or any combination of four main mechanisms: evaporation, evapotranspiration, hydrolysis, and leakage between aquifers. Salinity increases from catchment divides to the valley floors and in the direction of groundwater flow. Salinization is explained by two main chemical models developed by the authors: weathering and deposition. These models are in agreement with the weathering and depositional geological processes that have formed soils and overburden in the catchments. Five soil-change processes in arid and semi-arid climates are associated with waterlogging and water. In all represented cases, groundwater is the main geological agent for transmitting, accumulating, and discharging salt. At a small catchment scale in South and Western Australia, water is lost through evapotranspiration and hydrolysis. Saline groundwater flows along the beds of the streams and is accumulated in paleochannels, which act as a salt repository, and finally discharges in lakes, where most of the saline groundwater is concentrated. In the hummocky terrains of the Northern Great Plains Region, Canada and USA, the localized recharge and discharge scenarios cause salinization to occur mainly in depressions, in conjunction with the formation of saline soils and seepages. On a regional scale within closed basins, this process can create playas or saline lakes. In the continental aquifers of the rift basins of Sudan, salinity increases along the groundwater flow path and forms a saline zone at the distal end. The saline zone in each rift forms a closed ridge, which coincides with the closed trough of the groundwater-level map. The saline body or bodies were formed by evaporation coupled with alkaline-earth carbonate precipitation and dissolution of capillary salts. Received, May 1998 · Revised, July 1998 · Accepted, September 1998     

Water quality analysis of a freshwater diversion at Caernarvon, Louisiana

Since 1991, Mississippi River water has been diverted at Caernarvon, Louisiana, into Breton Sound estuary. Breton Sound estuary encompasses 1100 km² of fresh and brackish, rapidly subsiding wetlands. Nitrite + nitrate, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, ammonium, total phosphorus, total suspended sediments, and salinity concentrations were monitored at seven locations in Breton Sound from 1988 to 1994. Statistical analysis of the data indicated decreased total Kjeldahl nitrogen with associated decrease in total nitrogen, and decreased salinity concentrations in the estuary due to the diversion. Spring and summer water quality transects indicated rapid reduction of nitrite + nitrate and total suspended sediment concentration as diverted Mississippi River water entered the estuary, suggesting near complete assimilation of these constituents by the ecosystem. Loading rates of nitrite + nitrate (5.6–13.4 g m⁻² yr⁻¹), total nitrogen (8.9–23.4 g m⁻² yr⁻¹), and total phosphorus (0.9–2.0 g m⁻² yr⁻¹) were calculated along with removal efficiencies for these constituents (nitrite + nitrate 88–97%; total nitrogen 32–57%; total phosphorus 0–46%). The low impact of the diversion on water quality in the Breton Sound estuary, along with assimilation of TSS over a very short distance, suggests that more water may be introduced into the estuary without detrimental affects. This would be necessary if freshwater diversions are to be used to distribute nitrients and sediments into the lower reaches of the estuary, in an effort to compensate for relative sea-level rise, and reverse the current trend of rapid loss of wetlands in coastal Louisiana.