The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely

Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England.     

Mapping Submerged Aquatic Vegetation with GIS in the Caloosahatchee Estuary: Evaluation of Different Interpolation Methods

This article evaluates different spatial interpolation methods for mapping submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the Caloosahatchee Estuary, Florida. Data used for interpolation were collected by the Submersed Aquatic Vegetation Early Warning System (SAVEWS). The system consists of hydro-acoustic equipment, which operates from a slow-moving boat and records bottom depth, seagrass height, and seagrass density. This information is coupled with geographic location coordinates from a Global Positioning System (GPS) and stored together in digital files, representing SAV status at points along transect lines. Adequate spatial interpolation is needed to present the SAV information, including density, height, and water depth, as spatially continuous data for mapping and for comparison between seasons and years. Interpolation methods examined in this study include ordinary kriging with five different semivariance models combined with a variable number of neighboring points, the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method with different parameters, and the triangulated irregular network (TIN) method with linear and quintic options. Interpolation results were compared with survey data at selected calibration transects to examine the suitability of different interpolation methods. Suitability was quantified by the determination coefficient (R2) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between interpolated and observed values. The most suitable interpolation method was identified as the one yielding the highest R2 value and/or the lowest RMSE value. For different geographic conditions, seasons, and SAV parameters, different interpolation methods were recommended. This study identified that kriging was more suitable than the IDW or TIN method for spatial interpolation of all SAV parameters measured. It also suggested that transect data with irregular spatial distribution patterns such as SAV parameters are sensitive to interpolation methods. An inappropriate interpolation method such as TIN can lead to erroneous spatial representation of the SAV status. With a functional geographic system and adequate computing power, the evaluation and selection of interpolation methods can be automated and quantitative, leading to a more efficient and accurate decision.     

Contributions of groundwater conditions to soil and water salinization

 Salinization is the process whereby the concentration of dissolved salts in water and soil is increased due to natural or human-induced processes. Water is lost through one or any combination of four main mechanisms: evaporation, evapotranspiration, hydrolysis, and leakage between aquifers. Salinity increases from catchment divides to the valley floors and in the direction of groundwater flow. Salinization is explained by two main chemical models developed by the authors: weathering and deposition. These models are in agreement with the weathering and depositional geological processes that have formed soils and overburden in the catchments. Five soil-change processes in arid and semi-arid climates are associated with waterlogging and water. In all represented cases, groundwater is the main geological agent for transmitting, accumulating, and discharging salt. At a small catchment scale in South and Western Australia, water is lost through evapotranspiration and hydrolysis. Saline groundwater flows along the beds of the streams and is accumulated in paleochannels, which act as a salt repository, and finally discharges in lakes, where most of the saline groundwater is concentrated. In the hummocky terrains of the Northern Great Plains Region, Canada and USA, the localized recharge and discharge scenarios cause salinization to occur mainly in depressions, in conjunction with the formation of saline soils and seepages. On a regional scale within closed basins, this process can create playas or saline lakes. In the continental aquifers of the rift basins of Sudan, salinity increases along the groundwater flow path and forms a saline zone at the distal end. The saline zone in each rift forms a closed ridge, which coincides with the closed trough of the groundwater-level map. The saline body or bodies were formed by evaporation coupled with alkaline-earth carbonate precipitation and dissolution of capillary salts. Received, May 1998 · Revised, July 1998 · Accepted, September 1998     

Water quality analysis of a freshwater diversion at Caernarvon, Louisiana

Since 1991, Mississippi River water has been diverted at Caernarvon, Louisiana, into Breton Sound estuary. Breton Sound estuary encompasses 1100 km² of fresh and brackish, rapidly subsiding wetlands. Nitrite + nitrate, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, ammonium, total phosphorus, total suspended sediments, and salinity concentrations were monitored at seven locations in Breton Sound from 1988 to 1994. Statistical analysis of the data indicated decreased total Kjeldahl nitrogen with associated decrease in total nitrogen, and decreased salinity concentrations in the estuary due to the diversion. Spring and summer water quality transects indicated rapid reduction of nitrite + nitrate and total suspended sediment concentration as diverted Mississippi River water entered the estuary, suggesting near complete assimilation of these constituents by the ecosystem. Loading rates of nitrite + nitrate (5.6–13.4 g m⁻² yr⁻¹), total nitrogen (8.9–23.4 g m⁻² yr⁻¹), and total phosphorus (0.9–2.0 g m⁻² yr⁻¹) were calculated along with removal efficiencies for these constituents (nitrite + nitrate 88–97%; total nitrogen 32–57%; total phosphorus 0–46%). The low impact of the diversion on water quality in the Breton Sound estuary, along with assimilation of TSS over a very short distance, suggests that more water may be introduced into the estuary without detrimental affects. This would be necessary if freshwater diversions are to be used to distribute nitrients and sediments into the lower reaches of the estuary, in an effort to compensate for relative sea-level rise, and reverse the current trend of rapid loss of wetlands in coastal Louisiana.     

Design Screening Tools for Passive Funnel and Gate Systems

The funnel and gate remediation concept (Star and Cherry 1993) represents a promising, yet relatively under-developed, technology for the passive control and in situ remediation of contaminated ground water. Effective design and implementation of such a system may, however, prove difficult under conditions of large or unpredictable variations in contaminant migration or ground water flow.
Numerical modeling of two-dimensional ground water flow has been used to predict the hydraulic performance of passive, straight, or winged funnel and gate configurations over a range of hydrogeologic and ambient ground water flow conditions. The results of these analyses were used to construct generic correlation diagrams relating upstream capture zone or gale through put to the barrier, gale, and aquifer characteristics. These diagrams serve as useful screening tools to (1) quantitatively estimate the capture zone of pre-determined funnel and gale configurations, or (2) develop preliminary funnel and gale designs that will yield a desired capture zone, independent of aquifer characteristics.     

The influence of enclosing rock type on barite deposits, eastern Pyrenees, Spain: fluid inclusion and isotope (Sr, S, O, C) data

The Rocabruna and Coll de Pal barite deposits, located in the eastern Pyrenees of Spain, fill karstic cavities within carbonate rocks of Cambrian and Devonian age, respectively. The deposits contain barite, chalcopyrite, tetrahedrite, pyrite and minor sphalerite and galena with saddle dolomite and quartz as gangue. Fluid inclusion data from Coll de Pal quartz and dolomite indicate that the mineralizing fluid was a polysaline CaCl₂-rich brine, with temperatures between 125 and 150 °C. C and O isotopic compositions of carbonates in both deposits are consistent with a progressive increase in temperature during deposition. The ³⁴S values of barite, which range from 14.2 to 15.9‰ in Coll de Pal, and from 13.9 to 19.3‰ in Rocabruna, together with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios ranging from 0.7118 to 0.7168 in Rocabruna, and from 0.7115 to 0.7136 in Coll de Pal, indicate two different fluid sources. We propose that these deposits formed as a result of mixing between a Ba-rich, sulfate-poor hot fluid, and sulfate-rich solutions of surficial origin. The different Sr isotope ratios in the deposits indicate that the hot Ba-rich fluids involved in each deposit were equilibrated with different rock types (carbonates and shales), in agreement with the geology of the two areas. Received: 22 October 1997 / Accepted: 24 March 1998     

Co-management of Caribbean Community (CARICOM) fisheries

The countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) have a relatively poor record of fisheries management and the need to reform fisheries governance is urgent. There is now increasing interest in getting fishers and other stakeholders more involved in management through co-management and community-based management approaches. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potentials of co-management as an alternative fisheries management strategy for the countries in the CARICOM region. Co-management is found to have potential but there will need to be capacity-building and institutional strengthening of fisheries departments, fishers and NGOs to participate in co-management. Pilot projects should be initiated to gain practical experience in co-management.     

Dust injection into the Martian atmosphere

A mechanism for initiating global dust storms on Mars is proposed in which the diurnal variation of surface temperature results in the desorption of adsorbed CO₂, which under certain conditions can inject large amounts of fine (1–10 μm) dust into the atmosphere.     

加拿大内陆水的保护

Contrary to general international perception, Canada does not have an unlimited supply of freshwater. However, because Canada has a small population, it does have a generous water allocation on a per capita basis. Nor is Canada immune from water quality problems:its cold continental climate, urbanization and industrial activities all contribute to water quality concerns and deterioration. Generally, the authority to manage water in Canada is held by the country''s provincial governments. The Great Lakes basin is the world''s largest freshwater ecosystem and is located in Canada''s industrial heartland. Water issues, starting with phosphorus in the 1960''s, created international headlines. In the 1970''s toxics became the predominant issue and this led to the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement which established the ecosystem approach to water quality management. This approach is now the standard approach to water quality management and has been successfully applied to a number of other lake and river ecosystems in Canada. While there have been improvements in the water quality of the Great Lakes much remains to be done on toxic elimination and the large contaminant stores in the sediments. Atmospheric deposition has become a significant source of chemicals from outside the basin The Canadian prairies, the agricultural heartland of Canada, is one major ecozone that has not been selected to have current and potential water quality problems examined by a federal government program. Both the quantity and quality of water in this region are potentially significant factors limiting economic diversification and sustainable development in this vast and ecologically disturbed region.