What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Sediment transport in high‐speed flows over a fixed bed: 2. Particle impacts and abrasion prediction

Single bed load particle impacts were experimentally investigated in supercritical open channel flow over a fixed planar bed of low relative roughness height simulating high‐gradient non‐alluvial mountain streams as well as hydraulic structures. Particle impact characteristics (impact velocity, impact angle, Stokes number, restitution and dynamic friction coefficients) were determined for a wide range of hydraulic parameters and particle properties. Particle impact velocity scaled with the particle velocity, and the vertical particle impact velocity increased with excess transport stage. Particle impact and rebound angles were low and decreased with transport stage. Analysis of the particle impacts with the bed revealed almost no viscous damping effects with high normal restitution coefficients exceeding unity. The normal and resultant Stokes numbers were high and above critical thresholds for viscous damping. These results are attributed to the coherent turbulent structures near the wall region, i.e. bursting motion with ejection and sweep events responsible for turbulence generation and particle transport. The tangential restitution coefficients were slightly below unity and the dynamic friction coefficients were lower than for alluvial bed data, revealing that only a small amount of horizontal energy was transferred to the bed. The abrasion prediction model formed by Sklar and Dietrich in 2004 was revised based on the new equations on vertical impact velocity and hop length covering various bed configurations. The abrasion coefficient k_v was found to be vary around k_v ~ 10⁵ for hard materials (tensile strength f_t > 1 MPa), one order of magnitude lower than the value assumed so far for Sklar and Dietrich's model. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

Silicones in Chesapeake Bay sediments

Sediment samples from the upper reaches to the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay were analysed for extractable organic silicon (silicone) content. Organic silicon in the sediments ranged from less than 0.2 to some 36 ppm, w/w. In general, silicone tended to accumulate in high depositional areas: the northern bay, and along the shores to the south. While present, anthropogenic inputs in terms of defined source were not clear. It appears that processes in the bay act to rapidly remove silicone from the water column, probably on a function of the flocculation/precipitation of seston, especially in the northern area.     

Can Plant Competition and Diversity Reduce the Growth and Survival of Exotic <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> Invading a Tidal Marsh?

The rapid proliferation of Phragmites australis in North America has challenged resource managers to curb its expansion and reduce the loss of functional tidal marsh. We investigated whether native plant competition could reduce the ability of Phragmites to invade a tidal marsh, and if plant diversity (species richness, evenness, and composition) altered the competitive outcome. Immature Phragmites shoots and four native halophytes were transplanted to small but dense field plots (~1,200 shoots m⁻²) comprising three community structure types (Phragmites alone, Phragmites + 1 native species, and Phragmites + 4 native species). Interspecific competition significantly reduced Phragmites aboveground biomass, shoot length production, density, and survival by approximately 60%. Additionally, plots planted with greater native diversity contained Phragmites with the lowest growth and survival, potentially indicating diversity-enhanced resource competition. Competition consistently reduced the growth of Phragmites even under favorable conditions: lack of strong tidal flooding stresses as well as elevated nutrient pools.     

Salt thickness and composition influence rift structural style,northern North Sea,offshore Norway

“Salt” giants are typically halite‐dominated, although they invariably contain other evaporite (e.g. anhydrite, bittern salts) and non‐evaporite (e.g. carbonate, clastic) rocks. Rheological differences between these rocks mean they impact or respond to rift‐related, upper crustal deformation in different ways. Our understanding of basin‐scale lithology variations in ancient salt giants, what controls this and how this impacts later rift‐related deformation, is poor, principally due to a lack of subsurface datasets of sufficiently regional extent. Here we use 2D seismic reflection and borehole data from offshore Norway to map compositional variations within the Zechstein Supergroup (ZSG) (Lopingian), relating this to the structural styles developed during Middle Jurassic‐to‐Early Cretaceous rifting. Based on the proportion of halite, we identify and map four intrasalt depositional zones (sensu Clark et al., Journal of the Geological Society, 1998, 155, 663) offshore Norway. We show that, at the basin margins, the ZSG is carbonate‐dominated, whereas towards the basin centre, it becomes increasingly halite‐dominated, a trend observed in the UK sector of the North Sea Basin and in other ancient salt giants. However, we also document abrupt, large magnitude compositional and thickness variations adjacent to large, intra‐basin normal faults; for example, thin, carbonate‐dominated successions occur on fault‐bounded footwall highs, whereas thick, halite‐dominated successions occur only a few kilometres away in adjacent depocentres. It is presently unclear if this variability reflects variations in syn‐depositional relief related to flooding of an underfilled presalt (Early Permian) rift or syn‐depositional (Lopingian) rift‐related faulting. Irrespective of the underlying controls, variations in salt composition and thickness influenced the Middle Jurassic‐to‐Early Cretaceous rift structural style, with diapirism characterising hangingwall basins where autochthonous salt was thick and halite‐rich and salt‐detached normal faulting occurring on the basin margins and on intra‐basin structural highs where the salt was too thin and/or halite‐poor to undergo diapirism. This variability is currently not captured by existing tectono‐stratigraphic models largely based on observations from salt‐free rifts and, we argue, mapping of suprasalt structural styles may provide insights into salt composition and thickness in areas where boreholes are lacking or seismic imaging is poor.     

Subducted slabs beneath the eastern Indonesia-Tonga region: insights from tomography

Tomographic images of mantle structure beneath the region north and northeast of Australia show a number of anomalously fast regions. These are interpreted using a recent plate tectonic reconstruction in terms of current and former subduction systems. Several strong anomalies are related to current subduction. The inferred slab lengths and positions are consistent with Neogene subduction beneath the New Britain and Halmahera arcs, and at the Tonga and the New Hebrides trenches where there has been rapid rollback of subduction hinges since about 10 Ma. There are several deeper flat-lying anomalies which are not related to present subduction and we interpret them as former subduction zones overridden by Australia since 25 Ma. Beneath the Bird’s Head and Arafura Sea is an anomaly interpreted to be due to north-dipping subduction beneath the Philippines-Halmahera arc between 45 and 25 Ma. A very large anomaly extending from the Papuan peninsula to the New Hebrides, and from the Solomon Islands to the east Australian margin, is interpreted to be the remnant of south-dipping subduction beneath the Melanesian arc between 45 and 25 Ma. This interpretation implies that a flat-lying slab can survive for many tens of millions of years at the bottom of the upper mantle. In the lower mantle there is a huge anomaly beneath the Gulf of Carpentaria and east Papua New Guinea. This is located above the position where the tectonic model interprets a change in polarity of subduction from north-dipping to south-dipping between 45 and 25 Ma. We suggest this deep anomaly may be a slab subducted beneath eastern Australian during the Cretaceous, or subducted north of Australia during the Cenozoic before 45 Ma. The tomography also supports the tectonic interpretation which suggests little Neogene subduction beneath western New Guinea since no slab is imaged south of the New Guinea trench. However, one subduction zone in the tectonic model and many others, that associated with the Trobriand trough east of Papua New Guinea and the Miocene Maramuni arc, is not seen in the tomographic images and may require reconsideration of currently accepted tectonic interpretations.     

A Note on Reviving the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes （GSSTF） Dataset

Accurate sea surface flux measurements are crucial for understanding the global water and energy cycles. The oceanic evaporation, which is a major component of the global oceanic fresh water flux, is useful for predicting oceanic circulation and transport. The global Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes Version-2 (GSSTF2; July 1987--December 2000) dateset that was officially released in 2001 has been widely used by scientific community for global energy and water cycle research, and regional and short period data analyses. We have recently been funded by NASA to resume processing the GSSTF dataset with an objective of continually producing a uniform dataset of sea surface turbulent fluxes, derived from remote sensing data. The dataset is to be reprocessed and brought up-to-date (GSSTF2b) using improved input datasets such as a recently upgraded NCEP/DOE sea surface temperature reanalysis, and an upgraded surface wind and microwave brightness temperature V6 dataset (Version 6) from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) produced by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). A second new product (GSSTF3) is further proposed with a finer temporal (12-h) and spatial (0.25^ox0.25^o) resolution. GSSTF2b (July 1987--December 2008) and GSSTF3 (July 1999--December 2009) will be released for the research community to use by late 2009 and early 2011, respectively.     

Meteor44 Video Meteor Photometry

Meteor44 is a software system developed at MSFC for the calibration and analysis of video meteor data. The photometric range of the (8 bit) video data is extended from a visual magnitude range of from 8 to 3 to from 8 to −8 for both meteors and stellar images using saturation compensation. Camera and lens specific saturation compensation coefficients are derived from artificial variable star laboratory measurements. Saturation compensation significantly increases the number of meteors with measured intensity and improves the estimation of meteoroid mass distribution. Astrometry is automated to determine each image's plate coefficient using appropriate star catalogs. The images are simultaneously intensity calibrated from the contained stars to determine the photon sensitivity and the saturation level referenced above the atmosphere. The camera's spectral response is used to compensate for stellar color index and typical meteor spectra in order to report meteor light curves in traditional visual magnitude units. Recent efforts include improved camera calibration procedures and long focal length "streak" meteor photometry. Meteor44 has been used to analyze data from the 2001, 2002 and 2003 MSFC Leonid observational campaigns as well as several lesser showers.