Water level variations in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries,North Carolina due to local and remote forcing

Water level time series records from the Neuse and Pamlico River Estuaries were statistically compared to local and distant wind field data, water level records within the Pamlico Sound and also coastal ocean sites to determine the relative contribution of each time series to water levels in the Neuse and Pamlico Estuaries. The objectives of this study were to examine these time series data using various statistical methods (i.e. autoregressive, empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF), exploratory data analysis (EDA)) to determine short- and long-time-scale variability, and to develop predictive statistical models that can be used to estimate past water level fluctuations in both the Neuse Estuary (NE) and Pamlico Estuary (PE). Short- and long-time-scale similarities were observed in all time series of estuarine, Pamlico Sound and subtidal coastal ocean water level and wind component data, due to events (nor'easters, fronts and tropical systems) and seasonality. Empirical orthogonal function analyses revealed a strong coastal ocean and wind field contribution to water level in the NE and PE. Approximately 95% of the variation was captured in the first two EOF components for water level data from the NE, sound and coastal ocean, and 70% for the PE, sound and coastal ocean. Spectral density plots revealed strong diurnal signals in both wind and water level data, and a strong cross correlation and coherency between the NE water level and the North/South wind component. There was good agreement between data and predictions using autoregressive statistical models for the NE (R² = 0.92) and PE (R² = 0.76). These methods also revealed significant autoregressive lags for the NE (days 1 and 3) and for the PE (days 1, 2 and 3). Significant departures from predictions are attributed to local meteorological and hydrological events. The autoregressive techniques showed significant predictive improvement over ordinary least squares methods. The results are considered within the context of providing long time-scale hindcast data for the two estuaries, and the importance of these data for multidisciplinary researchers and managers.     

东亚大气环流的低频振荡及与韵律的关系

本文根据北半球500hPa高度场30年(1951—1980)平均的逐候格点资料,对气候平均的东亚各主要大气环流系统的年内变化进行了谐波分析和天气学分析.结果表明,东亚大气环流系统存在着三种主要的大气低频波:年波、半年波和30—50天的季内波;中、高纬度的大气环流以年波振荡为主,低纬度的大气环流以半年波振荡为主;30—50天的季内波是北半球各纬度上都存在的一种波,但它对总方差的贡献在低纬比中、高纬度大.此外,还讨论了年波和半年波这两种大气低频波与我国长期预报中常用的各种韵律指标特别是隔季相关现象的关系.     

5 地震过程的物理学

地震过程的物理学是一个内容十分广泛的专题,包括震源物理过程、断层面解、震源时间函数、地震定量、地震统计性质、模型试验、数学模拟、地震与核爆的区分等.该专题共有24篇论文,涉及的国家有印度、中国、日本、俄罗斯、伊朗、乌兹别克和埃及.     

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FACING CHALLENGESIN 21ST CENTURY

ISUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDER UN－guiding human forward．he author pointed out manyCEASINGCHALLENGES times that sustainable developmentwas a correctstrategic selectlonforhumanfuture and It representedaThe Zlst Century has come，people have many newdevelopmentoutlook，strategic vie呷olntandvalueforecasts and long for a wonde山lprospect．The 21st（CHEN，1997；200a；200b）．Century lsa bio－sclentmc era，an economic global－The authoralso pointed out th…     

Incorporating uncertainty of future sea-level rise estimates into vulnerability assessment: A case study in Kahului, Maui

Accurate sea-level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are essential in developing effective management strategies for coastal systems at risk. In this study, we evaluate the effect of combining vertical uncertainties in Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) elevation data, datum transformation and future SLR estimates on estimating potential land area and land cover loss, and whether including uncertainty in future SLR estimates has implications for adaptation decisions in Kahului, Maui. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate probability distributions through our inundation model, and the output probability surfaces are generalized as areas of high and low probability of inundation. Our results show that considering uncertainty in just LiDAR and transformation overestimates vulnerable land area by about 3 % for the high probability threshold, resulting in conservative adaptation decisions, and underestimates vulnerable land area by about 14 % for the low probability threshold, resulting in less reliable adaptation decisions for Kahului. Not considering uncertainty in future SLR estimates in addition to LiDAR and transformation has variable effect on SLR adaptation decisions depending on the land cover category and how the high and low probability thresholds are defined. Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable approach to SLR vulnerability assessments because errors are not required to follow a Gaussian distribution.     

Martian water vapor: Mars Express PFS/LW observations

We present the seasonal and geographical variations of the martian water vapor monitored from the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer Long Wavelength Channel aboard the Mars Express spacecraft. Our dataset covers one martian year (end of Mars Year 26, Mars Year 27), but the seasonal coverage is far from complete. The seasonal and latitudinal behavior of the water vapor is globally consistent with previous datasets, Viking Orbiter Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD) and Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS/TES), and with simultaneous results obtained from other Mars Express instruments, OMEGA and SPICAM. However, our absolute water columns are lower and higher by a factor of 1.5 than the values obtained by TES and SPICAM, respectively. In particular, we retrieve a Northern midsummer maximum of 60 pr-μm, lower than the 100-pr-μm observed by TES. The geographical distribution of water exhibits two local maxima at low latitudes, located over Tharsis and Arabia. Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations suggest that these local enhancements are controlled by atmospheric dynamics. During Northern spring, we observe a bulge of water vapor over the seasonal polar cap edge, consistent with the northward transport of water from the retreating seasonal cap to the permanent polar cap. In terms of vertical distribution, we find that the water volume mixing ratio over the large volcanos remains constant with the surface altitude within a factor of two. However, on the whole dataset we find that the water column, normalized to a fixed pressure, is anti-correlated with the surface pressure, indicating a vertical distribution intermediate between control by atmospheric saturation and confinement to a surface layer. This anti-correlation is not reproduced by GCM simulations of the water cycle, which do not include exchange between atmospheric and subsurface water. This situation suggests a possible role for regolith-atmosphere exchange in the martian water cycle.     

Constraints on the flux of meteoritic and cometary water on the Moon from volatile element (N–Ar) analyses of single lunar soil grains,Luna 24 core

We report new nitrogen and argon isotope and abundance results for single breccia clasts and agglutinates from four different sections of the Luna 24 drill core in order to re-evaluate the provenance of N trapped in lunar regolith, and to place limits on the flux of planetary material to the Moon’s surface. Single Luna 24 grains with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratios <1 show δ¹⁵N values between ?54.5‰ and +123.3‰ relative to terrestrial atmosphere. Thus, low-antiquity lunar soils record both positive and negative δ¹⁵N signatures, and the secular increase of the δ¹⁵N value previously postulated by Kerridge (Kerridge, J.F. [1975]. Science 188(4184), 162–164. doi:10.1126/science.188.4184.162) is no longer apparent when the Luna and Apollo data are combined. Instead, the N isotope signatures, corrected for cosmogenic ¹⁵N, are consistent with binary mixing between isotopically light solar wind (SW) N and a planetary N component with a δ¹⁵N value of +100‰ to +160‰. The lower δ¹⁵N values of Luna 24 grains compared to Apollo samples reflect a higher relative proportion of solar N, resulting from the higher SW fluence in the region of Mare Crisium compared to the central near side of the Moon. Carbonaceous chondrite-like micro-impactors match well the required isotope characteristics of the non-solar N component trapped in low-antiquity lunar regolith. In contrast, a possible cometary contribution to the non-solar N flux is constrained to be ?3–13%. Based on the mixing ratio of SW to planetary N obtained for recently exposed lunar soils, we estimate the flux of micro-impactors to be (2.2–5.7) × 10³ tons yr^?1 at the surface of the Moon. Our estimate for Luna 24 agrees well with that for young Apollo regolith, indicating that the supply of planetary material does not depend on lunar location. Thus, the continuous influx of water-bearing cosmic dust may have represented an important source of water for the lunar surface over the past ～1 Ga, provided that water removal rates (i.e., by meteorite impacts, photodissociation, and sputtering) do not exceed accumulation rates.     

Fractional Crystallization and Liquid Immiscibility Processes in the Alkaline-Carbonatite Complex of Juqui (So Paulo, Brazil)

The Juqui circular intrusion, which is Cretaceous in age (130–135Ma), crops out in the Precambrian gneissic basement in Brazilover an area of 14 km2. It consists of olivine clinopyroxen-itecumulates (with minor olivine gabbros) in the northeastern sector(74 vol.%), whereas ijolites-melteigites-urtites (4%) and nephelinesyenites with minor essexites and syenodiorites (21%) outlinesubannular concentric patterns with an Mg-carbonatite core (1%), in the southwestern part of the complex. Petrographical, bulk rock, and mineral compositional trendsindicate that the origin of the complex can be largely accountedfor by shallow-level fractional crystallization of a carbonatedbasanitic parental magma. Such a magma was generated deep inthe subcontinental lithosphere by low-degree partial meltingof a garnet-phlogopite peridotite source. Mass-balance calculations in agreement with field volume estimatespermit definition of several fractionation stages of the magmaticevolution under nearly closed-system conditions, with inwarddevelopment of zonally arranged side-wall cumulates. These stagesinvolved: (1) fractionation from basanite to essexite magma(liquid fraction F = 33–5%) by crystallization of olivineclinopyroxenite plus minor olivine alkali gabbro cumulates;(2) derivation of the least differentiated mafic nepheline syenite(F = 5–5 %) from essexitic magma by subtraction of a syenodioriteassemblage; (3) exsolution of a carbonatite liquid (5%) froma CO₂-enriched mafic nepheline syenite magma, which also underwentcontinuous fractionation giving rise to ijolite-melteigite-urtitecumulates. The proportion of cumulus clinopyroxene and biotiteand intercumulus nepheline and alkali feldspar in these lastrocks, as well as the absence of alkalis in carbonatite, maybe attributed, at least in part, to loss of alkali-rich hydrousfluids released during and after the unmixing formation of thetwo conjugate liquids. The KD values determined for Mg-carbonatite/nepheline syeniteare lower (1–4–2–9) for light rare earth elements(LREE) than for REE from Eu to Yb (4–6–7–8),in contrast to recent experimental results (Hamilton et al.,1989). A possible explanation is that Juquia Mg-carbonatiterepresents an alreadydifferentiated magma, which underwent extensivefractionation of LREE-enriched calcite. In this way, the highvariability of K₀ REE patterns observed in several alkaline-carbonatitecomplexes can also be accounted for. The remarkably constant initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (mostly between0–7052 and 0–7057) support the interpretation ofthe intrusion as having been generated by fractrional crystallizationand liquid immiscibility from a common parental magma. Iligherisotopic ratios (0–7060–0–7078), found mainlyin dykes and in the border facies of the intrusion, may be dueto contamination by the gecissic basement.     

Hydrocarbon Generating Potential of Mineral—Bituminous Matrix in Source Rocks

Mineral-bituminous matrix(MBM) makes up a major part of source rocks,but its potential in hydrocarbon generation is uncertain,Mineral and organic (Maceral and kerogen) compositions,organic maturity and fluorescence of MBM are studied based on source rock samples from eastern Jiuquan(Jiudong)Basin.The results show that MBM is dominated by inorganic minerals and among the small percentage of organic components those of secondary origins are predominant over the primary species.This strongly indicates that the significance of MBM in hydrocarbon generation is limited.     

华北山地多成因壶穴初步研究——对华北山地“冰臼”等“冰川地貌”的讨论

华北山地"距今二、三百万年"的"冰臼"绝大部分位于第四纪河谷内,"距今1～2万年"的"冰川壶穴"位于全新世河谷内,与华北山地地貌演化相矛盾;所谓的"冰川地貌"组合不是真正的地貌组合,而是不同时代、不同成因地貌的混合,因此,华北山地不存在冰臼。所谓的"冰臼"是不同时代、多种成因的壶穴——距今2.50Ma前后的河蚀壶穴,距今10～20ka的雪蚀壶穴,距今10ka以来的溶蚀穴、溶蚀—河蚀壶穴、风化—风蚀壶穴、现代壶穴和水潭。