An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

Chasing a 'loose and baggy monster': almshouses and the geography of charity

This paper goes some way towards redressing the lack of geographical literature on charity through exploring the geography of the British domestic charitable sector. The size and geography of the third sector is outlined, followed by an analysis of how almshouses can be understood as inherently geographical and deeply embedded in local social networks of inclusion as well as exclusion.     

Relationship between the seismicity and geologic structure of the Blanco Transform Fault Zone

Morphologic studies of an oceanic transform, the Blanco Transform Fault Zone (BTFZ), have shown it to consist of a series of extensional basins that offset the major strike-slip faults. The largest of the extensional basins, the Cascadia Depression, effectively divides the transform into a northwest segment, composed of several relatively short strike-slip faults, and a southeast segment dominated by fewer, longer faults. The regional seismicity distribution (m _b 4.0) and frequency-magnitude relationships (b-values) of the BTFZ show that the largest magnitude events are located on the southeast segment. Furthermore, estimates of the cumulative seismic moment release and seismic moment release rate along the southeast segment are significantly greater than that of the northwest segment. These observations suggest that slip along the southeast segment is accommodated by a greater number of large magnitude earthquakes. Comparison of the seismic moment rate, derived from empirical estimates, with the seismic moment rate determined from plate motion constraints suggests a difference in the seismic coupling strength between the segments. This difference in coupling may partially explain the disparity in earthquake size distribution. However, the results appear to confirm the relation between earthquake size and fault length, observed along continental strike-slip faults, for this oceanic transform.     

Ice-Sheet Glaciation of the Puget lowland, Washington, during the Vashon Stade (late pleistocene)

During the Vashon Stade of the Fraser Glaciation, about 15,000–13,000 yr B.P., a lobe of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet occupied the Puget lowland of western Washington. At its maximum extent about 14,000 yr ago, the ice sheet extended across the Puget lowland between the Cascade Range and Olympic Mountains and terminated about 80 km south of Seattle. Meltwater streams drained southwest to the Pacific Ocean and built broad outwash trains south of the ice margin. Reconstructed longitudinal profiles for the Puget lobe at its maximum extent are similar to the modern profile of Malaspina Glacier, Alaska, suggesting that the ice sheet may have been in a near-equilibrium state at the glacial maximum. Progressive northward retreat from the terminal zone was accompanied by the development of ice-marginal streams and proglacial lakes that drained southward during initial retreat, but northward during late Vashon time. Relatively rapid retreat of the Juan de Fuca lobe may have contributed to partial stagnation of the northwestern part of the Puget lobe. Final destruction of the Puget lobe occurred when the ice retreated north of Admiralty Inlet. The sea entered the Puget lowland at this time, allowing the deposition of glacial-marine sediments which now occur as high as 50 m altitude. These deposits, together with ice-marginal meltwater channels presumed to have formed above sea level during deglaciation, suggest that a significant amount of postglacial isostatic and(or) tectonic deformation has occurred in the Puget lowland since deglaciation.     

Treatment of Malting Wastewater in a Granular Sludge Sequencing Batch Reactor (SBR)

Aerobic granular sludge was successfully cultivated in a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) treating wastewater from the malting process with a high content of particulate organic matter. At an organic loading rate of 3.2 kg/(m³ d) COD_total and an influent particle concentration of 0.95 g/L MLSS an average removal of 50% in COD_total and 80% in COD_dissolved could be achieved. A comparison of granular and flocculent sludge grown under the same operating conditions showed no significant difference in removal efficiency although granules exhibited a higher metabolic activity in terms of specific oxygen uptake rate (r_{O2, X}). Two distinct mechanisms of particle removal were observed for granular sludge: during initial granule formation, particles were incorporated into the biofilm matrix. For mature granules, a high level of protozoa growth on the granule surface accounted for the ability to remove particulate COD. Combined evaluation of the development in MLSS content and sludge bed settling rate (i.e., mean derivative of the normalized sludge volume) was found to be an adequate method for monitoring the characteristic settling properties of a granulizing sludge bed. By means of this method, a distinct substrate gradient out of several operating conditions was concluded to have the biggest impact on the formation of aerobic granular sludge.     

Some approaches for location of centroids of quartz grain outlines to increase homology between Fourier amplitude spectra

The ability to test for similarities and differences among families of shapes by closed-form Fourier expansion is greatly enhanced by the concept of homology. Underlying this concept is the assumption that each term of a Fourier series, when compared to the same term in another series, represents the same thing. A method that ensures homology is one which minimizes the centering error, as reflected in the first harmonic term of the Fourier expansion. The problem is to chose a set of edge points derived from a much larger, but variable, number of edge points such that a valid homologous Fourier series can be calculated. Methods are reviewed and criteria given to define a proper solution. An algorithm is presented which takes advantage of the fact that minimization of the error term can be accomplished by minimizing the distance between the origin of the polar coordinate system in the calculation of the Fourier series and the shape centroid. The use of this algorithm has produced higher quality solutions for quartz grain provenance studies.     

Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico: GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

An atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM, has been used to investigate the possible effects that reduced Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures (SST) could have on regional and hemispheric climates. ¹⁸O records and terrestrial evidence indicate at least two major glacial meltwater discharges into the Gulf of Mexico subsequent to the last glacial maximum. It is probable that these discharges reduced Gulf of Mexico SST. We have conducted three numerical experiments, with imposed gulf-wide SST coolings of 3°C, 6°C, and 12°C, and find in all three experiments significant reductions in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, along with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures are higher over the North Atlantic, indicating a reduction of the climatological Icelandic low. The region is generally cooler and drier, with a reduction in precipitation that agrees well with evidence from Greenland ice cores. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere, but vary between the three experiments. In particular, warmer, wetter conditions are found over Europe for both the 6°C and 12°C SST reductions, but cooler conditions are found for the 3°C reduction. This indicates a dependence, in both the sign and magnitude of the model response, on the magnitude of the imposed SST anomaly. The results suggest that the present-day North Atlantic storm track is dependent on warm Gulf of Mexico SST for much of its intensity. They also suggest that meltwater-induced coolings may help account, in part, for some of the climatic oscillations that occurred during the last glacial/interglacial transition.     

Observed and modelled tidal currents in the New Zealand region

Tidal currents derived from current meter measurements are compared with the output from a barotropic tidal model of the New Zealand region. For the semi‐diurnal constituents there was very good agreement for the M₂ tide and good agreement for the S₂ tide. For the diurnal constituents (K_l, O_l) it was found that as the amplitude of the constituents decreased so did both the model/observation agreement and the accuracy of the observed tidal ellipse parameters. Consequently it was not possible to decide whether differences arose through shortcomings in the model or in the data. However, the overall performance of the model as a prognostic tool for ocean tidal current simulation appears to be good.