On the use of ‘first spotless day’ as a predictor for sunspot minimum

Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

The solar surface differential rotation from disk-integrated chromospheric fluxes

Disk-integrated solar chromospheric Caii K-line (3933.68 ) fluxes have been measured almost daily at Sacramento Peak Observatory since 1977. Using observing windows selected to mimic seasonal windows for chromospheric measurements of lower Main-Sequence stars such as those observed by Mount Wilson Observatory's HK Project, we have measured the solar rotation from the modulation of the Caii K-line flux. We track the change of rotation period from the decline of cycle 21 through the maximum of cycle 22. This variation in rotation period is shown to behave as expected from the migration of active regions in latitude according to Maunder's butterfly diagram, including an abrupt change in rotation period at the transition from cycle 21 to cycle 22. These results indicate the successful detection of solar surface differential rotation from disk-integrated observations. We argue that the success of our study compared to previous investigations of the solar surface differential rotation from disk-integrated fluxes lies primarily with the choice of the length of the time-series window. Our selection of 200 days is shorter than in previous studies whose windows are typically on the order of one year. The 200-day window is long enough to permit an accurate determination of the rotation period, yet short enough to avoid complications arising from active region evolution. Thus, measurements of the variation of rotation period in lower Main-Sequence stars, especially those that appear to be correlated with long-term changes in chromospheric activity (i.e., cycles), are probably evidence for stellar surface differential rotation.     

Multicolor photoelectric and photographic observations of the long-period variable Y Ori

Results of observations of the long-period variable Y Ori are presented. The photoelectric observations in UBVR were made at the 60-cm telescope of the high-altitude Maydanak station of the Tashkent Astronomical Institute during the autumn of 1989. The UBVR lightcurves as well as the variations in the color indices U-B, B-V, and V-R are presented. The photographic observations were made at the 40 Schmidt telescope of the Byurakan Observatory and at the 70-cm Maksutov telescope of the Abastumani Observatory. A nebulosity was discovered around Y Ori in red light near the brightness maximum. Such a formation is observed for the first time, not only for Y Ori but also for long-period variables in general. The obtained results are discussed in this work.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 5–15, January–March, 1995.     

The flare star PP Ori

We give the results of photographic, photoelectric, and spectral observations of the flare star PP Ori. The 109 photographic observations used, which were obtained on the 40 Schmidt telescope of the Byurakan Observatory over a period of about 20 years, and four spectra obtained on the same telescope with a4° objective prism show no variation in brightness. Photoelectric observations in the UBVR bands using the 50cm and 60cm telescopes of the high-altitude Maidanak station of the Tashkent Astronomical Institute in 1987 and 1989 give grounds for suspecting a variation in brightness much larger than observational errors. Spectral observations of the star PP Ori made on the 2.6m telescope of the Byurakan Observatory show weak H emission. The results of all these observations show that PP Ori is an Orion variable of spectral class K7-M0 with absolute visual magnitude7 ^m 5–8 ^m 5.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 38, No. 2, 1995.     

Evaluating the mobility of137Cs,239+240Pu and210Pb from their distributions in laminated lake sediments

Post-depositional mobility of¹³⁷Cs,^239+240Pu and²¹⁰Pb was assessed in six small lake basins by comparing sedimentary nuclide profiles with their known fallout history. Laminae couplets, when present, were determined to be varves because the¹³⁷Cs and^239+240Pu 1963 fallout peaks are present in laminae couplets corresponding to years 1962–1964. There is no evidence of mobility of²¹⁰Pb, because 1) mass accumulation rates based on²¹⁰Pb agree with those based on¹³⁷Cs and^239+240Pu peak depths and with those based on varve counts, and 2)²¹⁰Pb ages agree with varve ages. Significant mobility of¹³⁷Cs is evident from the penetration of¹³⁷Cs to depths 15–20 cm deeper than^239+240Pu. Deep penetration of¹³⁷Cs in spite of a sharp gradient below the peak is interpreted by a numerical model to suggest that¹³⁷Cs is present in two distinct forms in these sediments, 67–82% as an immobile form and 18–33% reversibly adsorbed with a K _d of approximately 5000. The profiles can be interpreted equally well assuming a small portionof the total¹³⁷Cs was present as an extremely mobile phase (K _d 5000) in the months to years following peak fallout, slowly becoming more strongly adsorbed. High NH ₄ ⁺ concentrations in porewaters may enhance diffusion of the mobile form of¹³⁷Cs, but not of the immobile form of¹³⁷Cs that defines the sharp gradient. Mobility of¹³⁷Cs is likely also enhanced by the low clay content and the high porosity of these sediments. Thus the first detection of¹³⁷Cs in the sediments cannot automatically be assumed to correspond to a date of 1952 (initial testing of thermonuclear weapons), although the depth of the peak can be assumed to correspond to 1963 (the year of maximum fallout from testing of thermonuclear weapons).^239+240Pu is a more reliable sediment chronometer than¹³⁷Cs because it is significantly less mobile.This is the sixth of a series of papers to be published by this journal following the 20 ^th anniversary of the first application of²¹⁰Pb dating of lake sediments. Dr P.G. Appleby is guest editing this series.     

TVZHR profile for the 1991 Perseid shower

Image intensified video detection systems were used to observe the 1991 Perseid meteor shower from two locations in eastern Canada. In 29.6 hours of total observing time a total of 668 meteors were detected, of which 403 were Perseids. We derived a profile of TVZHR (television zenithal hourly rate) values for the 1991 Perseid shower over the solar longitude (epoch 2000) interval 138°51 to 141°01. The apparent limiting stellar magnitudes of the observing systems were +9.4 and +8.8 (corresponding to limiting meteor magnitudes for our geometry ranging from +8.7 to +7.0). Within the observing period, the maximum TVZHR rate was approximately 1600, and occurred at solar longitude 139.9°. This is in good agreement with the second peak observed by visual observers. The data suggest that TVZHR values should be divided by a factor of approximately 5 to compare TVZHR and ZHR values.     

The densest prestellar condensations: H2CO Studies ofρ Oph B1

We present new images of the well-known molecular outflow and Herbig-Haro complex L 1551-IRS 5. Deep, high-resolution images of the central region of the flow in [SII] 6716,6731 and H (6565 Å) are complemented by a mosaic of much of the CO outflow in H₂ v=1-0 S(1). While the optical data trace the intermediate-to-high excitation shocks in the flow (v _shock > 30 – 50 km s^–1), the near-IR data reveal the lower-excitation, molecular shocks (v _shock 10–50 km s^–1). In particular, the H₂ data highlight the regions where the flow impacts and shocks ambient molecular gas.     

Radial velocity and profile variations of the ultraviolet circumstellar lines in ζ tauri

The radial velocity and profile variations of UV lines of the shell star Tau have been examined in the IUE spectra obtained in 1978–1982. The neutral atoms, and once or twice-ionized ions (exceptCii, Aliii, Siiii resonance lines) follow the same velocity variations as in the visual spectra, while the Siiv andCiv resonance lines show a constant negative velocity (–50 km s^–1 at the core). The Aliii,Cii resonance lines and probably Feiii (mult. No. 34) are formed in both regions, i.e., in lowly-ionized and highly-ionized regions and the Siiii resonance line is formed in a highly-ionized region.Paper presented at the Lembang-Bamberg IAU Colloquium No. 80 on Double Stars: Physical Properties and Generic Relations, held at Bandung, Indonesia, 3–7 June, 1983.     

Properties of metre-wavelength solar bursts associated with interplanetary type II emission

A statistical analysis is used to determine the properties of metre-wavelength events which are associated with interplanetary type II bursts. It is found that the likelihood of an interplanetary type II burst is greatly increased if: (a) an associated metre-wavelength type II has a starting frequency less than 45 MHz; (b) a strong metre-wavelength continuum is present; (c) the type II contains herringbone fine structure; and (d) the metre-wavelength activity is accompanied by strong, long-lasting H and soft X-ray events.Visiting scientist at Division of Radiophysics, January 1983; previous address - NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland.     

The response of selected terrestrial organisms to the Martian environment: A modeling study

An energy balance model has been developed to investigate how the Martian atmospheric environment could influence a community of photosynthetic microorganisms with properties similar to those of a cyanophyte (blue-green algal mat) and a lichen. Surface moisture and soil nutrients are assumed to be available. The model was developed to approximate equatorial equinox conditions and includes parameters for solar and thermal radiation, convective and conductive energy transport, and evaporative cooling. Calculations include the diurnal variation of organism temperature and transpiration and photosynthetic rates. The influences of different wind speeds and organism size and resistivity are also studied. The temperature of organisms in mats less than a few millimeters thick will not differ from the ground temperature by more than 10°K. Water loss is actually retarded at higher wind speeds, since the organism temperature is lowered, thus reducing the saturation vapor pressure. Typical photosynthetic rates lead to the production of 10^?6 to 10^?7 mole O₂ cm^?2 day^?1.