The inner solar system cratering record and the evolution of impactor populations

We review previously published and newly obtained crater size-frequency distributions in the inner solar system. These data indicate that the Moon and the terrestrial planets have been bombarded by two populations of objects. Population 1,dominating at early times, had nearly the same size distribution as the present-day asteroid belt, and produced heavily cratered surfaces with a complex, multi-sloped crater size-frequency distribution. Population 2, dominating since about 3.8–3.7 Gyr,had the same size distribution as near-Earth objects(NEOs) and a much lower impact flux, and produced a crater size distribution characterized by a differential –3single-slope power law in the crater diameter range 0.02 km to 100 km. Taken together with the results from a large body of work on age-dating of lunar and meteorite samples and theoretical work in solar system dynamics, a plausible interpretation of these data is as follows. The NEO population is the source of Population 2 and it has been in near-steady state over the past ～ 3.7–3.8 Gyr; these objects are derived from the main asteroid belt by size-dependent non-gravitational effects that favor the ejection of smaller asteroids. However, Population 1 was composed of main belt asteroids ejected from their source region in a size-independent manner, possibly by means of gravitational resonance sweeping during orbit migration of giant planets;this caused the so-called Late Heavy Bombardment(LHB). The LHB began some time before ～3.9 Gyr, peaked and declined rapidly over the next ～ 100 to 300 Myr,and possibly more slowly from about 3.8–3.7 Gyr to ～2 Gyr. A third crater population(Population S) consisted of secondary impact craters that can dominate the cratering record at small diameters.     

Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures

The last decade has produced record-breaking heat waves in many parts of the world. At the same time, it was globally the warmest since sufficient measurements started in the 19th century. Here we show that, worldwide, the number of local record-breaking monthly temperature extremes is now on average five times larger than expected in a climate with no long-term warming. This implies that on average there is an 80 % chance that a new monthly heat record is due to climatic change. Large regional differences exist in the number of observed records. Summertime records, which are associated with prolonged heat waves, increased by more than a factor of ten in some continental regions including parts of Europe, Africa, southern Asia and Amazonia. Overall, these high record numbers are quantitatively consistent with those expected for the observed climatic warming trend with added stationary white noise. In addition, we find that the observed records cluster both in space and in time. Strong El Niño years see additional records superimposed on the expected long-term rise. Under a medium global warming scenario, by the 2040s we predict the number of monthly heat records globally to be more than 12 times as high as in a climate with no long-term warming.     

Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms

By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or deterministic) to the simulated time series for global surface temperature. Here, we determine whether stochastic or deterministic trends are present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature by examining the time series for radiative forcing. Statistical tests indicate that the forcings contain a stochastic trend against the alternative hypothesis that the series are trend stationary with a one-time structural change. This result is consistent with the economic processes that impart a stochastic trend to anthropogenic emissions and the physical processes that integrate emissions in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the stochastic trend in the aggregate measure of radiative forcing also is present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature, which is consistent with the relation between these two variables that is represented by a zero dimensional energy balance model. Finally, we propose that internal weather variability imposed on the stochastic trend in radiative forcings is responsible for statistical results, which gives the impression that global surface temperature is trend stationary with a one-time structural change. We conclude that using the ideas of stochastic trends, cointegration, and error correction can generate reliable conclusions regarding the causes of changes in global surface temperature during the instrumental temperature record.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.