Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.     

Early Cretaceous U–Pb zircon ages for the Copiapó plutonic complex and implications for the IOCG mineralization at Candelaria, Atacama Region, Chile

Four of the major plutons in the vicinity of the Candelaria mine (470 Mt at 0.95% Cu, 0.22 g/t Au, 3.1 g/t Ag) and a dike–sill system exposed in the Candelaria open pit have been dated with the U–Pb zircon method. The new geochronological data indicate that dacite magmatism around 123 Ma preceded the crystallization of hornblende diorite (Khd) at 118 ± 1 Ma, quartz–monzonite porphyry (Kqm) at 116.3 ± 0.4 Ma, monzodiorite (Kmd) at 115.5 ± 0.4 Ma, and tonalite (Kt) at 110.7 ± 0.4 Ma. The new ages of the plutons are consistent with field relationships regarding the relative timing of emplacement. Plutonism temporally overlaps with the iron oxide Cu–Au mineralization (Re–Os molybdenite ages at ∼115 Ma) and silicate alteration (ages mainly from 114 to 116 and 110 to 112 Ma) in the Candelaria–Punta del Cobre district. The dated dacite porphyry and hornblende diorite intrusions preceded the ore formation. A genetic link of the metallic mineralization with the quartz–monzonite porphyry and/or the monzodiorite is likely. Both of these metaluminous, shoshonitic (high-K) intrusions could have provided energy and contributed fluids, metals, and sulfur to the hydrothermal system that caused the iron oxide Cu–Au mineralization. The age of the tonalite at 110.7 Ma falls in the same range as the late alteration at 110 to 112 Ma. Tonalite emplacement may have sustained existing or driven newly developed hydrothermal cells that caused this late alteration or modified ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and K/Ar systematic in some areas.     

Quantification of karst aquifer discharge components during storm events through end-member mixing analysis using natural chemistry and stable isotopes as tracers

Karst aquifer components that contribute to the discharge of a water supply well in the Classical Karst (Kras) region (Italy/Slovenia) were quantitatively estimated during storm events. Results show that water released from storage within the epikarst may comprise as much as two-thirds of conduit flow in a karst aquifer following rainfall. Principal components analysis (PCA) and end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) were performed using major ion chemistry and the stable isotopes of water (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) and of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ¹³C_DIC) to estimate mixing proportions among three sources: (1) allogenic river recharge, (2) autogenic recharge, and (3) an anthropogenic component stored within the epikarst. The sinking river most influences the chemical composition of the water-supply well under low-flow conditions; however, this proportion changes rapidly during recharge events. Autogenic recharge water, released from shallow storage in the epikarst, displaces the river water and is observed at the well within hours after the onset of precipitation. The autogenic recharge end member is the second largest component of the well chemistry, and its contribution increases with higher flow. An anthropogenic component derived from epikarstic storage also impacts the well under conditions of elevated hydraulic head, accounting for the majority of the chemical response at the well during the wettest conditions.     

Combined Digital Photogrammetry and Time-of-Flight Laser Scanning for Monitoring Cliff Evolution

Although cliffs form approximately 75% of the world's coastline, the understanding of the processes through which they evolve remains limited because of a lack of quantitative data on the morphological changes they undergo. In this paper the combination of terrestrial time-of-flight laser scanning with high-resolution digital photogrammetry is examined to generate high-quality data-sets pertaining to the geomorphic processes governing cliff development. The study was undertaken on a section of hard rock cliffs in North Yorkshire, UK, which has been monitored over a 12-month period. High-density, laser-scanned point clouds have been used to produce an accurate representation of these complex surfaces, free from the optical variations that degrade photographic data. These data-sets have been combined with high-resolution photographic monitoring, resampled with the fixed accuracies of the terrestrial laser survey, to generate a new approach to recording the volumetric changes in complex coastal cliffs. This has led to significant improvements in the understanding of the activity patterns of coastal cliffs.     

Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.     

Origin of the northern Indus Fan and Murray Ridge, Northern Arabian Sea: interpretation from seismic and magnetic imaging

The nature and origin of the sediments and crust of the Murray Ridge System and northern Indus Fan are discussed. The uppermost unit consists of Middle Miocene to recent channel–levee complexes typical of submarine fans. This unit is underlain by a second unit composed of hemipelagic to pelagic sediments deposited during the drift phase after the break-up of India–Seychelles–Africa. A predrift sequence of assumed Mesozoic age occurring only as observed above basement ridges is composed of highly consolidated rocks. Different types of the acoustic basement were detected, which reflection seismic pattern, magnetic anomalies and gravity field modeling indicate to be of continental character. The continental crust is extremely thinned in the northern Indus Fan, lacking a typical block-faulted structure. The Indian continent–ocean transition is marked on single MCS profiles by sequences of seaward-dipping reflectors (SDR). In the northwestern Arabian Sea, the Indian plate margin is characterized by several phases of volcanism and deformation revealed from interpretation of multichannel seismic profiles and magnetic anomalies. From this study, thinned continental crust spreads between the northern Murray Ridge System and India underneath the northern Indus Fan.