Seismic risk in the city of Al Hoceima (north of Morocco) using the vulnerability index method,applied in Risk-UE project

Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima.     

Soil nutrients in relation to vertical roots distribution in the riparian zone of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), the riparian zone has been subjected to numerous environmental changes. This study was conducted to recognize the distribution of grass roots and its impacts on soil nutrients in the water level fluctuation zone of TGR. Roots of four predominant herbaceous plants in the study area, specifically, Cynodon dactylon, Hemarthria altissima, Hemarthria compressa, and Paspalum paspaloides, and their corresponding relation with soil nutrient contents were investigated. Root surface area density was determined with WinRHIZO, and the relationships of root distribution with soil depths and soil nutrient contents were studied. The results indicates that most roots are distributed in the top soil layer of 0–10 cm. Estimated root surface area density for the selected grass species ranges from 0.16 to 13.44 cm2/cm3, and decreases exponentially with an increase in soil depth. Soil organic matter and total nitrogen contents are significantly lower on bare control area than the corresponding values on the grasslands. Total nutrient contents on grasslands of C. dactylon and H. compressa are higher than those of other grass areas. Root length density and root surface area density are significantly correlated with soil organic matter and total nitrogen content for the four grasslands. The present results suggests that plant roots have significant effects on the distribution of soil nutrients in soil profiles in the riparian zone along the TGR. Nevertheless, additional investigations are needed to reveal the specific interactions between plant roots distribution, soil nutrients and water level fluctuations.     

Application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for flood risk assessment: a case study in Malda district of West Bengal,India

A field experiment was conducted from 2 May 2010 to 1 May 2012 in the Gurbantunggut Desert, the second largest desert in China, to investigate saltation activity and its threshold velocity, and their relations with atmospheric and soil conditions. The results showed that saltation activity occurred more frequently during 08:00–20:00 Local Standard Time in spring and summer, with air temperatures between 20.0 and 29.0 °C, water vapor pressures between 0.6 and 0.9 kPa, soil temperatures between 25.0 and 30.0 °C, and a soil moisture lower than 0.04 m³/m³. At 2 m height, the saltation threshold velocity varied between 11.1 and 13.9 m/s, with a mean of 12.5 m/s. Threshold velocity showed clear seasonal variations in the following sequence: spring (11.7 m/s) < autumn (12.7 m/s) < summer (13.6 m/s). Affected by soil conditions, aeolian sand transport was weak, with an average annual aeolian sand that transported across a section (1.0 m × 2.0 m) of less than 6.0 kg.     

An Upper Limit on the Ratio Between the Extreme Ultraviolet and the Bolometric Luminosities of Stars Hosting Habitable Planets

A large number of terrestrial planets in the classical habitable zone of stars of different spectral types have already been discovered and many are expected to be discovered in the near future. However, owing to the lack of knowledge on the atmospheric properties, the ambient environment of such planets are unknown. It is known that sufficient amount of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) radiation from the star can drive hydrodynamic outflow of hydrogen that may drag heavier species from the atmosphere of the planet. If the rate of mass loss is sufficiently high, then substantial amount of volatiles would escape causing the planet to become uninhabitable. Considering energy-limited hydrodynamical mass loss with an escape rate that causes oxygen to escape alongwith hydrogen, an upper limit for the ratio between the EUV and the bolometric luminosities of stars which constrains the habitability of planets around them is presented here. Application of the limit to planet-hosting stars with known EUV luminosities implies that many M-type of stars should not have habitable planets around them.     

A maximum-entropy compound distribution model for extreme wave heights of typhoon-affected sea areas

A new compound distribution model for extreme wave heights of typhoon-affected sea areas is proposed on the basis of the maximum-entropy principle.The new model is formed by nesting a discrete distribution in a continuous one,having eight parameters which can be determined in terms of observed data of typhoon occurrence-frequency and extreme wave heights by numerically solving two sets of equations derived in this paper.The model is examined by using it to predict the N-year return-period wave height at two hydrology stations in the Yellow Sea,and the predicted results are compared with those predicted by use of some other compound distribution models.Examinations and comparisons show that the model has some advantages for predicting the N-year return-period wave height in typhoon-affected sea areas.     

Detection of the Long Period Long Duration (LPLD) Events in Time-and Frequency-Domain

Long Period Long Duration (LPLD) signals are unusual seismic events that can be observed during hydraulic fracturing. These events are very similar in appearance to tectonic tremors sequences, which were first observed in subduction zones. Their nature is not well known. LPLD might be related to the productivity of the reservoir. Different methods of the LPLD events’ detection recorded during hydraulic fracturing are presented. The author applied two methods for LPLD detection–Butterworth filtering and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). Additionally, a new approach to LPLD events detection–instantaneous seismic attributes–was used, common in a classical seismic interpretation but not in microseismic monitoring.     

Causes and effects of spatial and temporal variations of cold period in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2014

Based on daily average temperatures and observation data from 74 meteorological stations in Chinese oases, we calculate five-day (pentad) average temperature ≤0°C for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period using linear regression analysis, nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests, the Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. We also analyze spatial and temporal variations and their effects on the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period in Chinese oases. Results show that over the last 55 years, the start pentad of cold period has been postponed while the end pentad has been advanced. Overall, the pentads have gradually shortened over time at trend rates that are 0.3 p/10a,–0.27 p/10a, and–0.58 p/10a, respectively. Spatial differences are significant, especially for the Qaidam Basin oasis where the start pentad is the earliest, the end pentad is the latest, and the trend of change is most obvious. Mutation points for the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period were observed in 1990, 1998, and 1994, respectively. Of these, the start pentad and pentads of cold period show a periodic cycle, related to atmospheric circulation and El Nino events, while the end pentad exhibits a periodic cycle, related to solar activity. The Tibetan Plateau index (TPI), the Asian polar vortex area index (APVAI), and carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) are the main factors affecting cold period in the study area, whereas the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) index exerts the greatest effect on the Qaidam Basin oasis. The start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period increase in concert with latitude, longitude, and altitude; in response to these changes, the start pentad is advanced, the end pentad is postponed, and pentads of cold period are gradually extended. Results show that change in latitude is most significant. Overall, the start and end pentad as well as pentads of cold period show clear responses to regional warming, but there are different effects on each.     

Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity

Forecasting solar and geomagnetic levels of activity is essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will survive for their useful lifetimes. Therefore, amplitudes of the upcoming solar cycles and the geomagnetic activity were forecasted using the neuro-fuzzy approach. Results of this work allow us to draw the following conclusions: Two moderate cycles are estimated to approach their maximum sunspot numbers, 110 and 116 in 2011 and 2021, respectively. However, the predicted geomagnetic activity shown to be in phase with the peak of the 24th sunspot cycle will reach its minimum three years earlier, then it will rise sharply to reach the 25th maximum a year earlier (i.e., 2020). Our analysis of the three-century long sunspot number data-set suggests that the quasi-periodic variation of the long-term evolution of solar activity could explain the irregularity of the short-term cycles seen during the past decades.     

内蒙古黄旗海不同粒级湖泊沉积物Rb、Sr组成与环境变化

Based on the geochemical elements Rb and Sr in sediments with three different grain size fractions from profile H3 on the northern lacustrine bottomland 13 m above the Huangqihai Lake surface in 1986,the paper investigates the record of palaeolake stand state, sedimentary environmental evolution,and winter monsoon change.First,these samples are separated into three different grain size fractions,i.e.,total sediments,77-20μm and〈20μm. Second,the chemical elements-Rb and Sr-of the grain size separation were tested and analyzed systematically in this paper.Then the elements compositions of these samples are measured using VP-320 mode fluorescence spectrum instrument,respectively.The magnetic susceptibility of these samples is measured using Kappabridge KLY-3 mode instrument made in Czech AGICO Company.The results showed the elements and the ratios varied regularly with the grain size.But the ratio of Rb/Sr in the sediments〈20μm correlates positively with the magnetic susceptibility of these samples.Therefore,the ratio of Rb/Sr in the fraction〈20 μm from the lake sediments reflected the strengthening of the weathering in the deposition sites.It is a good indicator of the summer monsoon-induced weathering and pedogenesis fluctuations and can be used to reconstruct the conditions of the paleoclimate and paleoenvironment.