Rejuvenation of Lake Erie

The positive ecological changes that have occurred in Lake Erie since the mid-1970, demonstrate that an extensively degraded aquatic ecosystem can be rejuventated. This rejuvenation should provide encouragement to other who are attempting to save such habitats as the Aral Sea. This paper summarizes the problems of Lake Erie, the meassures instituted to correct the problems and the result of remediation efforts.     

High resolution simulations of January and July climate over the western Alpine region with a nested Regional Modeling system

Summary High resolution January and July present day climatologies over the central-western Alpine region are simulated with a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested within a General Circulation Model (GCM). The RegCM was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and is run at 20 km grid point spacing. The model is driven by output from a present day climate simulation performed with the GCM ECHAM3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) at T106 resolution (~ 120 km). Five January and July simulations are conducted with the nested RegCM and the results for surface air temperature and precipitation are compared with a gridded observed dataset and a dataset from 99 observing stations throughout the Swiss territory. The driving ECHAM3 simulation reproduces well the position of the northeastern Atlantic jet, but underestimates the jet intensity over the Mediterranean. Precipitation over the Alpine region in the ECHAM3 simulation is close to observed in January but lower than observed in July. Compared to the driving GCM, the nested RegCM produces more precipitation in both seasons, mostly as a result of the stronger model orographic forcing. Average RegCM temperature over the Swiss region is 2–3 degrees higher than observed, while average precipitation is within 30% of observed values. The spatial distribution of precipitation is in general agreement with available gridded observations and the model reproduces the observed elevation dependency of precipitation in the summer. In the winter the simulated elevation of maximum precipitation amounts is lower than observed. Precipitation frequencies are overestimated, while precipitation intensities show a reasonable agreement with observations, especially in the winter. Sensitivity experiments with different cumulus parameterizations, soil moisture initialization and model topography are discussed. Overall, the model performance at the high resolution used here did not deteriorate compared to previous lower resolution experiments.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.With 11 Figures     

Possible creep-related tilt precursors obtained in the Central Apennines (Italy) and in the Southern Caucasus (Georgia)

Daily averaged tilt component data from two sites of the Central Apennines (Italy) and of the Southern Caucasus (Georgia), respectively, revealed intermediate-term tilts as possible precursors to earthquakes (M=3.0÷4.7) which occurred in the above-mentioned seismic areas within a distance of 50 km from the sites. A good temporal correlation as well as a fair spatial correspondence between these residual tilts (with amplitude and duration of some microradians and months, respectively) and main shocks were pointed out, by removing both secular trends and seasonal thermoelastic effects from the raw tilts. An attempt was made to justify the above-mentioned results, based on the assumption that the observed intermediate-term preseismic tilts are the manifestation of aseismic creep episodes of comparable duration in the fault materials of thrust faults close to the tilt sites. The mechanism refers to a strain field slowly propagating from the preparation focal area to the tilt site, through crustal blocks separated by weak transition zones. This propagation is thought to be the cause of the local aseismic fault slip recorded by the tiltmeters. Previously, both discrete structures and strain propagation effects were revealed in the Central Apennines and are thought also to exist in the Southern Caucasus. As in the past, the rheological properties of fault materials are revealed as viscoelastic ones. In fact, creep equations obtained by applying several viscoelastic models on our data, proved to fit quite well some of the observed tilt precursors, producing viscosity and rigidity values very similar to those reported in literature.Professor Petr Viktorovich Manjgaladze died during the writing of this paper     

Episode 49 of the Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea volcano-breakdown of a steady-state eruptive era

The Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption (1983-present) is the longest lived rift eruption of either Kilauea or neighboring Mauna Loa in recorded history. The initial fissure opening in January 1983 was followed by three years of episodic fire fountaining at the Pu'u 'O'o vent on Kilauea's east rift zone 19km from the summit (episodes 4–47). These spectacular events gave way in July 1986 to five and a half years of nearcontinuous, low-level effusion from the Kupaianaha vent, 3km to the cast (episode 48). A 49th episode began in November 1991 with the opening of a new fissure between Pu'u 'O'o and Kupaianaha. this three week long outburst heralded an era of more erratic eruptive behavior characterized by the shut down of Kupaianaha in February 1992 and subsequent intermittent eruption from vents on the west flank of Pu'u 'O'o (episodes 50 and 51). The events occurring over this period are due to progressive shrinkage of the rift-zone reservoir beneath the eruption site, and had limited impact on eruption temperatures and lava composition.     

A search for ultra-high energy counterparts to gamma-ray bursts

A small air shower array operating over many years has been used to search for ultra-high energy (UHE) gamma radiation ( 50 TeV) associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the BATSE instrument on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (CGRO). Upper limits for a one minute interval after each burst are presented for seven GRBs located with zenith angles < 20°. A 4.3 excess over background was observed between 10 and 20 minutes following the onset of a GRB on 11 May 1991. The confidence level that this is due to a real effect and not a background fluctuation is 99.8%. If this effect is real then cosmological models are excluded for this burst because of absorption of UHE gamma rays by the intergalactic radiation fields.     

Search for low energyν e,μ,τ andv e,μ,τ in coincidence with BATSE gamma ray bursts

A search for low energy neutrinos of all flavours in correlation with 553 ray bursts detected by BATSE aboard the Compton Observatory has been performed by the LSD (Liquid Scintillator Detector) neutrino telescope. No excess ofe,, orv _e,, candidate has been detected by LSD during the time interval in which BATSE detected the 90% of the photon flux for any of the GRBs analyzed. Upper limits on the neutrino fluxes are given in the paper.     

Numerical simulation of the general circulation of the atmosphere of Titan

The atmospheric circulation of Titan is investigated with a general circulation model. The representation of the large-scale dynamics is based on a grid point model developed and used at Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique for climate studies. The code also includes an accurate representation of radiative heating and cooling by molecular gases and haze as well as a parametrization of the vertical turbulent mixing of momentum and potential temperature. Long-term simulations of the atmospheric circulation are presented. Starting from a state of rest, the model spontaneously produces a strong superrotation with prograde equatorial winds (i.e., in the same sense as the assumed rotation of the solid body) increasing from the surface to reach 100 m sec-1 near the 1-mbar pressure level. Those equatorial winds are in very good agreement with some indirect observations, especially those of the 1989 occultation of Star 28-Sgr by Titan. On the other hand, the model simulates latitudinal temperature contrasts in the stratosphere that are significantly weaker than those observed by Voyager 1 which, we suggest, may be partly due to the nonrepresentation of the spatial and temporal variations of the abundances of molecular species and haze. We present diagnostics of the simulated atmospheric circulation underlying the importance of the seasonal cycle and a tentative explanation for the creation and maintenance of the atmospheric superrotation based on a careful angular momentum budget.     

Bipolar outflows from stars and galaxies as a tornado phenomenon

At an early stage in the lives of stars and galaxies when they are surrounded by discs, vorticity in the disc concentrates into a central vortex, thus converting a Keplerian velocity fieldu _ø r ^–1/2 into an irrotational velocity fieldu _ør ^–1, which implies inward transfer of angular momentum. Centrifugal forces due to spin-up of the inner region and gravity dominant in the outer region then squeeze gas at intermediate layers, increasing pressure gradient in the axial direction sufficiently to drive a wide-angle low-velocity bipolar outflow from the disc. A logarithmic singularity of vorticity at the axis implies strong centrifugal forces which expand plasma to radiusR where pressure gradient balances centrifugal force density of ions; the much weaker centrifugal force density of electrons cannot balance pressure gradient, so that electrons are driven inwards relative to ions until charge separation limits the relative displacement. Now the radial gradient ofu _øcauses ions to rotate at a different rate to electrons, generating an azimuthal current densityj _øwhich is the source of an axial magnetic fieldB _zin the core of the central vortex. Centrifuging carries lines of B to the core wall, where they are wound into helical force-free configuration with B j. An annular channel of radiusR and thickness R into which parallel helical lines ofj andB are compressed constitutes a magnetic vortex tube (MVT). An MVT separates an inner high-velocity highly collimated outflow from the outer low-velocity wide-angle outflow, and is responsible for jets. Magnetic pinches in the MVT may constrict the core flow at HH objects.     

A topological approach to understand a multiple-loop solar flare

We analyze the UV and X-ray data obtained by the SMM satellite for the flare starting at 02:36 UT on November 12, 1980 in AR 2779. From a detailed revision of the Ov emission, we find that the observations are compatible with energy being released in a zone above the magnetic inversion line of the AR intermediate bipole. This energy is then transported mainly by conduction towards the two distant kernels located in the AR main bipole. One of these kernels is first identified in this paper. Accelerated particles contribute to the energy transport only during the impulsive phase.We model the observed longitudinal magnetic field by means of a discrete number of subphotospheric magnetic poles, and derive the magnetic field overall topology. As in previous studies of chromospheric flares, the Ov kernels are located along the intersection of the computed separatrices with the photosphere. Especially where the field-line linkage changes discontinuously, these kernels can be linked in pairs by lines that extend along separatrices. Our results agree with the hypothesis of magnetic energy released by magnetic reconnection occurring on separatrices.     

On the use of ‘first spotless day’ as a predictor for sunspot minimum

Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.