Paleomagnetic constraints on the paleogeography and oroclinal bending of the Devonian volcanic arc in Kazakhstan

Numerical modelling, incorporating coupling between surface processes and induced flow in the lower continental crust, is used to address the Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of Corinth region in central Greece. The post-Early Pleistocene marine depocentre beneath this Gulf overlies the northern margin of an older (Early Pleistocene and earlier) lacustrine basin, the Proto Gulf of Corinth Basin or PGCB. In the late Early Pleistocene, relief in this region was minimal but, subsequently, dramatic relief has developed, involving the creation of  900 m of bathymetry within the Gulf and the uplift by many hundreds of metres of the part of the PGCB, south of the modern Gulf, which forms the Gulf's main sediment supply. It is assumed that, as a result of climate change around 0.9 Ma, erosion of this sediment source region and re-deposition of this material within the Gulf began, both processes occurring at spatial average rates of  0.2 mm a^− 1. Modelling of the resulting isostatic response indicates that the local effective viscosity of the lower crust is  4 × 10¹⁹ Pa s, indicating a Moho temperature of  560 °C. It predicts that the  10 mm a^− 1 of extension across this  70 km wide model region, at an extensional strain rate of  0.15 Ma^− 1, is partitioned with  3 mm a^− 1 across the sediment source,  2 mm a^− 1 across the depocentre, and  5 mm a^− 1 across the ‘hinge zone’ in between, the latter value being an estimate of the extension rate on normal faults forming the major topographic escarpment at the southern margin of the Gulf. This modelling confirms the view, suggested previously, that coupling between this depocentre and sediment source by lower-crustal flow can explain the dramatic development in local relief since the late Early Pleistocene. The effective viscosity of the lower crust in this region is not particularly low; the strong coupling interpreted between the sediment source and depocentre results instead from their close proximity. In detail, the effective viscosity of the lower crust is expected to decrease northward across this model region, due to the northward increase in exposure of the base of the continental lithosphere to the asthenosphere; in the south the two are separated by the subducting Hellenic slab. The isostatic consequences of such a lateral variation in viscosity provide a natural explanation for why, since  0.9 Ma, the modern Gulf has developed asymmetrically over the northern part of the PGCB, leaving the rest of the PGCB to act as its sediment source.     

On the ‘Divergence Problem’ in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes

An anomalous reduction in forest growth indices and temperature sensitivity has been detected in tree-ring width and density records from many circumpolar northern latitude sites since around the middle 20th century. This phenomenon, also known as the “divergence problem”, is expressed as an offset between warmer instrumental temperatures and their underestimation in reconstruction models based on tree rings. The divergence problem has potentially significant implications for large-scale patterns of forest growth, the development of paleoclimatic reconstructions based on tree-ring records from northern forests, and the global carbon cycle. Herein we review the current literature published on the divergence problem to date, and assess its possible causes and implications. The causes, however, are not well understood and are difficult to test due to the existence of a number of covarying environmental factors that may potentially impact recent tree growth. These possible causes include temperature-induced drought stress, nonlinear thresholds or time-dependent responses to recent warming, delayed snowmelt and related changes in seasonality, and differential growth/climate relationships inferred for maximum, minimum and mean temperatures. Another possible cause of the divergence described briefly herein is ‘global dimming’, a phenomenon that has appeared, in recent decades, to decrease the amount of solar radiation available for photosynthesis and plant growth on a large scale. It is theorized that the dimming phenomenon should have a relatively greater impact on tree growth at higher northern latitudes, consistent with what has been observed from the tree-ring record. Additional potential causes include “end effects” and other methodological issues that can emerge in standardization and chronology development, and biases in instrumental target data and its modeling. Although limited evidence suggests that the divergence may be anthropogenic in nature and restricted to the recent decades of the 20th century, more research is needed to confirm these observations.     

Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO₂ and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by ‘walking along equal quantile paths’ of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO₂ and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO₂ concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 ^∘C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO₂ equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See for EQW-software and data.     

Have applications of continuous rainfall–runoff simulation realized the vision for process‐based flood frequency analysis?

Keith Beven was amongst the first to propose and demonstrate a combination of conceptual rainfall–runoff modelling and stochastically generated rainfall data in what is known as the ‘continuous simulation’ approach for flood frequency analysis. The motivations included the potential to establish better links with physical processes and to avoid restrictive assumptions inherent in existing methods applied in design flood studies. Subsequently, attempts have been made to establish continuous simulation as a routine method for flood frequency analysis, particularly in the UK. The approach has not been adopted universally, but numerous studies have benefitted from applications of continuous simulation methods. This paper asks whether industry has yet realized the vision of the pioneering research by Beven and others. It reviews the generic methodology and illustrates applications of the original vision for a more physically realistic approach to flood frequency analysis through a set of practical case studies, highlighting why continuous simulation was useful and appropriate in each case. The case studies illustrate how continuous simulation has helped to offer users of flood frequency analysis more confidence about model results by avoiding (or exposing) bad assumptions relating to catchment heterogeneity, inappropriateness of assumptions made in (UK) industry‐standard design event flood estimation methods, and the representation of engineered or natural dynamic controls on flood flows. By implementing the vision for physically realistic analysis of flood frequency through continuous simulation, each of these examples illustrates how more relevant and improved information was provided for flood risk decision‐making than would have been possible using standard methods. They further demonstrate that integrating engineered infrastructure into flood frequency analysis and assessment of environmental change are also significant motivations for adopting the continuous simulation approach in practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Removal of river-stage fluctuations from well response using multiple regression

Many contaminated unconfined aquifers are located in proximity to river systems. In groundwater studies, the physical presence of a river is commonly represented as a transient-head boundary that imposes hydrologic responses within the intersected unconfined aquifer. The periodic fluctuation of river-stage height at the boundary produces associated responses within the adjacent aquifer system, the magnitude of which is a function of the existing well, aquifer, boundary conditions, and characteristics of river-stage fluctuations. The presence of well responses induced by the river stage can significantly limit characterization and monitoring of remedial activities within the stress-impacted area. This article demonstrates the use of a time-domain, multiple-regression, convolution (superposition) method to develop well/aquifer river response function (RRF) relationships. Following RRF development, a multiple-regression deconvolution correction approach can be applied to remove river-stage effects from well water-level responses. Corrected well responses can then be analyzed to improve local aquifer characterization activities in support of optimizing remedial actions, assessing the area-of-influence of remediation activities, and determining mean groundwater flow and contaminant flux to the river system.     

Late Cenozoic magnetostratigraphy (11 – 0 Ma) of the Dongshanding and Wangjiashan sections in the Longzhong Basin,western China

A paleomagnetic study of the 510-m-thick Wangjiashan section of Late Miocene and Pliocene terrestrial sediments reveals a fairly complete reversal record with ages from 11 to 1.8 Ma. The magnetostratigraphy of the Dongshanding section, located nearby, reveals a partially overlapping reversal record with ages from 2.2 to 0 Ma, and facilitates correlation of the Wangjiashan section with the global polarity time scale. A new stratigraphic division of the Wangjiashan section replaces the name Linxia formation by five new formation names, based on lithologic variation and mammalian fossil finds. The new formations and their magnetostratigraphically determined ages are: Dongshan Formation (c. 1.75–2.6 Ma), Jishi Fm. (c. 2.6–3.6 Ma), Hewangjia Fm. (4.5–6.0 Ma), Liushu Fm. (6.0–7.6 Ma), and Dongxiang Fm. (7.6–c. 12 Ma). The Neogene stratigraphy and fossil mammals suggest that the nearby part of the Tibetan Plateau experienced a persistent denudation during the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene, but that it was uplifted more rapidly at about 3.6 Ma.     

Timing of Variscan HP-HT metamorphism in the Moldanubian Zone of the Bohemian Massif: U-Pb SHRIMP dating on multiply zoned zircons from a granulite from the Dunkelsteiner Wald Massif, Lower Austria

In an attempt to better constrain the timing of Variscan HP-HT metamorphism in the SE Bohemian Massif we have dated zoned zircons from a garnet-kyanite granulite of granitic composition from the Dunkelsteiner Wald Massif, Lower Austria, by means of sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) technique. In order to combine isotopic information with crystal growth textures, CL and BSE images were systematically taken from the dated zircons. A characteristic threefold concentric zoning was found in many zircons. This involves pre-Variscan protolithic cores followed by two distinct metamorphic/anatectic overgrowth shells of Variscan age. The inner overgrowth shell is characterized by a weak CL but bright BSE signal, and yields high contents of uranium (0.1 to 0.2 wt.%). A pooled U-Pb Concordia age for this zone is 342.0?±?3.0?Ma (n?=?11, MSWD?=?0.12). The second, outer, overgrowth shell is always bright in the CL image, dark in the BSE image, and has generally low uranium contents (mostly <500?ppm). A pooled U-Pb Concordia age for this zone is 337.1?±?2.7?Ma (n?=?11, MSWD?=?0.22). These results imply that the Variscan HT crystallisation history of the Moldanubian granulites took place over a period of a few million years and was not an extremely rapid subduction-exhumation process. SHRIMP measurements in the protolithic cores yield a cluster of (sub)concordant ages between ??390 and 460?Ma and a few outliers at higher ages mostly represented by cores in cores. Core domains, which are large, homogeneous and with undisturbed igneous oscillatory zoning, yielded preferentially ages between 430 and 460?Ma. We therefore consider that granitic protolith formation took place at that time. The still older inner cores are interpreted as inherited into the granitic melt.     

An upper limit to coronal X-rays from single,magnetic white dwarfs

Pointed ROSAT PSPC exposures of 9277 and 6992 sec, directed toward the nearby, single, cool, magnetic white dwarfs GR 290 and EG 250 yielded no counts significantly above the expected background rate. The corresponding flux limits (for an assumed source temperature of l keV) are 1.0 and 1.7 × 10⁻¹⁴erg cm⁻² s⁻¹, within the 0.1–2.5 keV bandpass of the instrument (99% confidence limits). This is more than an order of magnitude below the tentative detection level (for GR 290) and limits (for four other similar stars) obtained from archival Einstein data in 1991. The corresponding limits on coronal electron density are comparable with those implied if cyclotron emission is not responsible for any of the features observed in the optical spectra of magnetic white dwarfs. X-ray data currently provide no evidence for the existence of coronae around these stars. A final long observation (25,000 sec of GD 356) is scheduled for later this year on ROSAT, along with coordinated EUVE observations.