Late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in a biodiversity hotspot, the Uluguru Mountains of Tanzania

Late Quaternary vegetation history and environmental changes in a biodiverse tropical ecosystem are inferred from pollen, charcoal and carbon isotope evidence derived from a ∼ 48,000-yr sedimentary record from the Uluguru Mountains, a component of the Eastern Arc Mountains of Kenya and Tanzania. Results indicate that Eastern Arc forest composition has remained relatively stable during the past ∼ 48,000 yr. Long-term environmental stability of the Eastern Arc forests has been proposed as a mechanism for the accumulation and persistence of species during glacial periods, thus resulting in the diverse forests observed today. The pollen and isotope data presented here indicate some marked changes in abundance but no significant loss in moist forest taxa through the last glacial maximum, thereby providing support for the long-term environmental stability of the Eastern Arc. Anthropogenic activities, including burning and forest clearance, were found to play a moderate role in shaping the mosaic of forest patches and high-altitude grasslands that characterise the site today; however, this influence was tempered by the inaccessibility of the mountain.     

Late orogenic, large-scale rotations in the Tien Shan and adjacent mobile belts in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan

Most of Kazakhstan belongs to the central part of the Eurasian Paleozoic mobile belts for which previously proposed tectonic scenarios have been rather disparate. Of particular interest is the origin of strongly curved Middle and Late Paleozoic volcanic belts of island-arc and Andean-arc affinities that dominate the structure of Kazakhstan. We undertook a paleomagnetic study of Carboniferous to Upper Permian volcanics and sediments from several localities in the Ili River basin between the Tien Shan and the Junggar–Alatau ranges in southeast Kazakhstan. Our main goal was to investigate the Permian kinematic evolution of these belts, particularly in terms of rotations about vertical axes, in the hope of deciphering the dynamics that played a role during the latest Paleozoic deformation in this area. This deformation, in turn, can then be related to the amalgamation of this area with Baltica, Siberia, and Tarim in the expanding Eurasian supercontinent. Thermal demagnetization revealed that most Permian rocks retained a pretilting and likely primary component, which is of reversed polarity at three localities and normal at the fourth. In contrast, most Carboniferous rocks are dominated by postfolding reversed overprints of probably “mid-Permian” age, whereas presumably primary components are isolated from a few sites at two localities. Mean inclinations of primary components generally agree with coeval reference values extrapolated from Baltica, whereas declinations from primary as well as secondary components are deflected counterclockwise (ccw) by up to  90°. Such ccw rotated directions have previously also been observed in other Tien Shan sampling areas and in the adjacent Tarim Block to the south. However, two other areas in Kazakhstan show clockwise (cw) rotations of Permian magnetization directions. One area is located in the Kendyktas block about 300 km to the west of the Ili River valley, and the other is found in the Chingiz Range, to the north of Lake Balkhash and about 400 km to the north of the Ili River valley. The timing of the ccw as well as cw rotations is clearly later than the disappearance of any marine basins from northern Tarim, the Tien Shan and eastern Kazakhstan, so that the rotations cannot be attributed to island-arc or Andean-margin plate settings — instead we attribute the rotations to large-scale, east–west (present-day coordinates), sinistral wrenching in an intracontinental setting, related to convergence between Siberia and Baltica, as recently proposed by Natal'in and Şengör [Natal'in, B.A., and Şengör, A.M.C., 2005. Late Palaeozoic to Triassic evolution of the Turan and Scythian platforms: the pre-history of the palaeo-Tethyan closure, Tectonophysics, 404, 175–202.]. Our previous work in the Chingiz and North Tien Shan areas on Ordovician and Silurian rocks suggested relative rotations of  180°, whereas the Permian declination differences are of the order of 90° between the two areas. Thus, we assume that about 50% of the total post-Ordovician rotations are of pre-Late Permian age, with the other half of Late Permian–earliest Mesozoic age. The pre-Late Permian rotations are likely related to oroclinal bending during plate boundary evolution in a supra-subduction setting, given the calc-alkaline character of nearly all of the pre-Late Permian volcanics in the strongly curved belts.     

Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500

Monthly temperature series for Central Europe back to AD 1500 are developed from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic (1500–1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records (1760–2007). Documentary evidence from the Low Countries, the Carpathian Basin and Poland are used for cross-checking for earlier centuries. The instrumental station records are corrected for inhomogeneities, including insufficient radiation protection of early thermometers and the urban heat island effect. For overlapping period (1760–1854), the documentary data series correlate with instrumental temperatures, most strongly in winter (86% explained variance in January) and least in autumn (56% in September). For annual average temperatures, 81% of the variance is explained. Verification statistics indicate high reconstruction skill for most months and seasons. The last 20 years (since 1988) stand out as very likely the warmest 20-year period, accounting for the calibration uncertainty and decreases in proxy data quality before the calibration period. The new reconstruction displays a previously unobserved long-term decrease in DJF, MAM and JJA temperature variability over last five centuries. Compiled monthly, seasonal and annual series can be used to improve the robustness of gridded large-scale European temperature reconstructions and possible impact studies. Further improvement of the reconstruction would be achieved if documentary data from other European countries are further developed.     

Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC

Dealing consistently with risk and uncertainty across the IPCC reports is a difficult challenge. Huge practical difficulties arise from the Panel’s scale and interdisciplinary context, the complexity of the climate change issue and its political context. The key question of this paper is if the observed differences in the handling of uncertainties by the three IPCC Working Groups can be clarified. To address this question, the paper reviews a few key issues on the foundations of uncertainty analysis, and summarizes the history of the treatment of uncertainty by the IPCC. One of the key findings is that there is reason to agree to disagree: the fundamental differences between the issues covered by the IPCC’s three interdisciplinary Working Groups, between the type of information available, and between the dominant paradigms of the practitioners, legitimately lead to different approaches. We argue that properly using the IPCC’s Guidance Notes for Lead Authors for addressing uncertainty, adding a pedigree analysis for key findings, and particularly communicating the diverse nature of uncertainty to the users of the assessment would increase the quality of the assessment. This approach would provide information about the nature of the uncertainties in addition to their magnitude and the confidence assessors have in their findings.     

Unravelling the hydrological effects on spatiotemporal variability of water chemistry in mountainous rivers from Southwest China

Understanding the effects of hydrological processes on solute dynamics is critical to interpret biogeochemical processes. Water chemistry and isotopic compositions of surface water (δ¹⁸O_w and δD_w) were investigated in rivers from Southwest China to study the effects of hydrological variability on biogeochemical processes. The inverse relationship between deuterium excess (d-excess) and δ¹⁸O_w could be ascribed to non-equilibrium fractionation processes, and the slope of the Local River Water Line was much lower than the Local Meteoric Water Line, suggesting the post-precipitation evaporation pattern. The evaporation fraction (1–f) was estimated by the d-excess method, varying from 0.01 to 0.18. (1–f), was a function of water temperature and drainage mean elevation, indicating that evaporation easily occurs at high temperatures in low-elevation regions. The hydrological processes co-varied with solute dynamics in the river network, and fluid transit time and temperature were likely responsible for the co-variations. Also, we found that hydrological processes played an important role in solute dynamics through shifting the geochemical processes (e.g., enrichment, water-rock reaction, photosynthesis, and secondary mineral precipitation). This study highlights that biogeochemical processes co-vary with hydrological processes, and we suggest that investigating hydrological processes can help to understand biogeochemical processes.     

Land use,soil erosion,and sediment yield at Pinto Lake,California: comparison of a simplified USLE model with the lake sediment record

Quantitative interpretation of past land use using palaeolimnological records of sediment yield requires an appropriate soil erosion model. This paper describes the application of a simplified USLE model, comparing the predicted sediment yield with the lake sediment record at Pinto Lake (Central Coast, California). Our principal finding is that simplified USLE prediction, without correction for sediment transport capacity, accurately predicts fine sediment yield. Because the fine component of the soil is delivered far more efficiently than the coarse component, this and related soil erosion models can more readily be applied to the interpretation of palaeolimnological records than to estimation of total sediment yield, for which reliable estimation of hillslope and fluvial sediment storage are more important. The focus on fine sediment also means that the model output is optimal for assessing past ecological impacts of soil erosion on stream water turbidity and particulate transport of pollutants and nutrients.     

Foreign policy ‘trilemmas’: understanding China's stance on international cap-and-trade

This article uses a policy analogy approach to explore China's attitude toward the possibility of global carbon market integration, including the development of a common cap-and-trade market for the global civil aviation industry. Like in other foreign policy domains, in international cap-and-trade, China faces a ‘trilemma’ between carbon market integration, state sovereignty and policy flexibility. By referring to how China has approached a comparable trilemma in foreign exchange policy making, we analyse China's possible stance on international cap-and-trade. We argue that China will prefer to gradually establish and strengthen, to a limited extent, intergovernmental governance mechanisms, which allow nation-states to prioritize sovereignty and policy flexibility in carbon trading policy making. In the conclusion we use this argument to explain China's responses to the carbon-trading initiatives of Australia, the EU, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and the World Bank.

Policy relevance

The international community has reached a consensus on the use of market mechanisms for mitigating climate change. While opposing the EU's plan to include Chinese airlines in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, China has started to co-explore with Australia the possibility of linking their carbon markets, and has adopted a supportive attitude toward the carbon trading initiatives led by the ICAO and the World Bank. Considering China's status as the largest emitting country of GHGs and its interdependence with major developed and developing countries, China's substantial participation would be crucial to the success of the global market-based efforts to reduce GHG emissions. This article presents an initial attempt to develop a better understanding of China's stance on international cap-and-trade.     

A feasibility study of borehole radar as a permanent downhole sensor

Permanent downhole sensors provide the eyes and ears to the reservoir and enable monitoring the reservoir conditions on a real‐time basis. In particular, the use of sensors and remotely controlled valves in wells and on the surface, in combination with reservoir flow models provide enormous benefits to reservoir management and oil production. We suggest borehole radar measurements as a promising technique capable to monitor the arrival of undesired fluids in the proximity of production wells. We use 1D modelling to investigate the expected signal magnitude and depth of investigation of a borehole radar sensor operating in an oilfield environment. We restrict the radar applicability to environments where the radar investigation depth can fit the reservoir size necessary to be monitored. Potential applications are steam chamber monitoring in steam assisted gravity drainage processes and water front monitoring in thin oil rim environments. A more sophisticated analysis of the limits of a radar system is carried out through 2D finite‐difference time‐domain simulations. The metal components of the wellbore casing can cause destructive interference with the emitted signal. A high dielectric medium surrounding the production well increases the amplitude of the signal and so the radar performance. Other reservoir constraints are given by the complexity of the reservoir and the dynamic of the fluids. Time‐lapse changes in the heterogeneity of the background formation strongly affect the retrieval of the target reflections and gradual fluid saturation changes reduce the amplitudes of the reflections.     

Marine mammals and debris in coastal waters of British Columbia, Canada

Entanglement in and ingestion of synthetic marine debris is increasingly recognized worldwide as an important stressor for marine wildlife, including marine mammals. Studying its impact on wildlife populations is complicated by the inherently cryptic nature of the problem. The coastal waters of British Columbia (BC), Canada provide important habitat for marine mammal species, many of which have unfavorable conservation status in the US and Canada. As a priority-setting exercise, we used data from systematic line-transect surveys and spatial modeling methods to map at-sea distribution of debris and 11 marine mammal species in BC waters, and to identify areas of overlap. We estimated abundance of 36,000 (CIs: 23,000-56,600) pieces of marine debris in the region. Areas of overlap were often far removed from urban centers, suggesting that the extent of marine mammal-debris interactions would be underestimated from opportunistic sightings and stranding records, and that high-overlap areas should be prioritized by stranding response networks.