Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial “wings” in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit “ENSO-like” decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency (reddens the spectrum) of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. At low frequencies, dissipation acts as an additional low pass filter that becomes more effective, as latitude increases. At the same time, ENSO-driven off-equatorial surface heating anomalies drive mixed layer temperature responses in both hemispheres. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of surface heat fluxes by the surface mixed layer act to low pass filter the ENSO-forcing. The resulting off-equatorial variability is therefore more coherent with low pass filtered (decadal) ENSO indices [e.g. NINO3 sea-surface temperature (SST)] than with unfiltered ENSO indices. Consequently large correlations between variability and NINO3 extend further poleward on decadal time-scales than they do on interannual time-scales. This explains why decadal ENSO-like patterns have a broader meridional structure than their interannual counterparts. This difference in appearance can occur even if ENSO indices do not have any predictability beyond interannual time-scales. The wings around 15–20°S, and sub-surface variability at many other locations are predictable on interannual and multi-year time-scales. This includes westward propagating internal RWs within about 25° of the equator. The slowest of these take up to 4 years to reach the western boundary. This sub-surface predictability has significant oceanographic interest. However, it is linked to only low levels of SST variability. Consequently, extrapolation of delayed action oscillator theory to decadal time-scales might not be justified.     

Whither Parity? The Need for a Comprehensive Curriculum in Human‐Environment Geography

If human‐environment geography is central to the discipline, then human‐environment courses should be a sizable segment of the undergraduate curriculum. Undergraduate educational offerings are inadequate, however, meaning that geography departments are shortchanging their majors, missing opportunities to attract and inform the general student body, and failing to meet the needs of future K–12 educators. Unless geography provides satisfactory human‐environment education, it will likely have much less impact on twenty‐first‐century environmental science.     

Interaction of an antecedent fluvial system with early normal fault growth: Implications for syn‐rift stratigraphy,western Corinth rift (Greece)

Continental ‘overfilled’ conditions during rift initiation are conventionally explained as due to low creation of accommodation compared with sediment supply. Alternatively, sediment supply can be relatively high from the onset of rifting due to an antecedent drainage system. The alluvial Lower Group of the western Plio–Pleistocene Corinth rift is used to investigate the interaction of fluvial sedimentation with early rifting. This rift was obliquely superimposed on the Hellenide mountain belt from which it inherited a significant palaeorelief. Detailed sedimentary logging and mapping of the well‐exposed syn‐rift succession document the facies distributions, palaeocurrents and stratigraphic architecture. Magnetostratigraphy and biostratigraphy are used to date and correlate the alluvial succession across and between fault blocks. From 3·2 to 1·8 Ma, a transverse low sinuosity braided river system flowed north/north‐east to east across east–west‐striking active fault blocks (4 to 7 km in width). Deposits evolved downstream from coarse alluvial conglomerates to fine‐grained lacustrine deposits over 15 to 30 km. The length scale of facies belts is much greater than, and thus not directly controlled by, the width of the fault blocks. At its termination, the distributive river system built small, stacked deltas into a shallow lake margin. The presence of a major antecedent drainage system is supported by: (i) a single major sediment entry point; (ii) persistence of a main channel belt axis; (iii) downstream fining at the scale of the rift basin. The zones of maximum subsidence on individual faults are aligned with the persistent fluvial axis, suggesting that sediment supply influenced normal fault growth. Instead of low accommodation rate during the early rift phase, this study proposes that facies progradation can be controlled by continuous and high sediment supply from antecedent rivers.     

Groundwater science in water-utility operations: global reflections on current status and future needs

The relevance of groundwater science to water-utility operations is analysed from a broad international perspective, identifying key concerns and specific opportunities for the future. The strategic importance worldwide of water utilities assuming the role of lead stakeholders for integrated groundwater resource management, recognizing their often considerable technical know-how and highly significant data holdings, is emphasized. Concurrently, the utilities themselves will need an ever-closer appreciation of groundwater-system behaviour if they are to manage efficiently their water-supply and wastewater operations.     

Methylmercury Bioaccumulation in an Urban Estuary: Delaware River,USA

Spatial variation in mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in urban coastal watersheds reflects complex interactions between Hg sources, land use, and environmental gradients. We examined MeHg concentrations in fauna from the Delaware River estuary, and related these measurements to environmental parameters and human impacts on the waterway. The sampling sites followed a north to south gradient of increasing salinity, decreasing urban influence, and increasing marsh cover. Although mean total Hg in surface sediments (top 4 cm) peaked in the urban estuarine turbidity maximum and generally decreased downstream, surface sediment MeHg concentrations showed no spatial patterns consistent with the examined environmental gradients, indicating urban influence on Hg loading to the sediment but not subsequent methylation. Surface water particulate MeHg concentration showed a positive correlation with marsh cover whereas dissolved MeHg concentrations were slightly elevated in the estuarine turbidity maximum region. Spatial patterns of MeHg bioaccumulation in resident fauna varied across taxa. Small fish showed increased MeHg concentrations in the more urban/industrial sites upstream, with concentrations generally decreasing farther downstream. Invertebrates either showed no clear spatial patterns in MeHg concentrations (blue crabs, fiddler crabs) or increasing concentrations further downstream (grass shrimp). Best-supported linear mixed models relating tissue concentration to environmental variables reflected these complex patterns, with species specific model results dominated by random site effects with a combination of particulate MeHg and landscape variables influencing bioaccumulation in some species. The data strengthen accumulating evidence that bioaccumulation in estuaries can be decoupled from sediment MeHg concentration, and that drivers of MeHg production and fate may vary within a small region.     

Chemical fractionation of zinc versus cadmium among other metals nickel, copper and lead in the northern North Sea

Concentrations of dissolved Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were measured in water samples collected during a cruise with R.V Pelagia (29-6/14-7-1993) in the northern North Sea and N.E. Atlantic Ocean. At least six depths (0–90 m) were sampled with modified Go-Flo samplers from a rubber zodiac. In the study area, the first 25 m were well mixed and stratification occurred below this depth. The local bloom of Emiliania huxleyi hardly affected the trace metals concentration, except for some removal of Cd as seen from its correlation with nitrate. The mean dissolved concentrations were for Ni (3.66 nM), Cu (1.61 nM), Zn (4.5 nM), Cd (48 pM) and Pb (108 pM). These concentrations are among the lowest reported for the North Sea and are of similar magnitude to those found in the eastern North Atlantic at the same latitude. Zn was the only exception with values 10 times higher compared to those in the Atlantic Ocean, suggesting external inputs, mainly atmospheric and possibly from surrounding land masses. The observed ratio Zn:Cd in the North Sea and estuaries is in between the high ratio 600–900 for continental sources and the low ratio 5–10 for oceanic waters. Latter low ratio is consistent with the 21-fold stronger inorganic complexation of Cd in seawater which, in combination with the preferential biological uptake of Zn, may lead to the observed about hundredfold fractionation of Zn versus Cd in the marine system. Other processes may play a role but would need further investigation. The dissolved Pb values tend to be lower than found before in the North Sea, indicating decreasing inventories due to reduced anthropogenic emissions.