Methylmercury Bioaccumulation in an Urban Estuary: Delaware River,USA

Spatial variation in mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in urban coastal watersheds reflects complex interactions between Hg sources, land use, and environmental gradients. We examined MeHg concentrations in fauna from the Delaware River estuary, and related these measurements to environmental parameters and human impacts on the waterway. The sampling sites followed a north to south gradient of increasing salinity, decreasing urban influence, and increasing marsh cover. Although mean total Hg in surface sediments (top 4 cm) peaked in the urban estuarine turbidity maximum and generally decreased downstream, surface sediment MeHg concentrations showed no spatial patterns consistent with the examined environmental gradients, indicating urban influence on Hg loading to the sediment but not subsequent methylation. Surface water particulate MeHg concentration showed a positive correlation with marsh cover whereas dissolved MeHg concentrations were slightly elevated in the estuarine turbidity maximum region. Spatial patterns of MeHg bioaccumulation in resident fauna varied across taxa. Small fish showed increased MeHg concentrations in the more urban/industrial sites upstream, with concentrations generally decreasing farther downstream. Invertebrates either showed no clear spatial patterns in MeHg concentrations (blue crabs, fiddler crabs) or increasing concentrations further downstream (grass shrimp). Best-supported linear mixed models relating tissue concentration to environmental variables reflected these complex patterns, with species specific model results dominated by random site effects with a combination of particulate MeHg and landscape variables influencing bioaccumulation in some species. The data strengthen accumulating evidence that bioaccumulation in estuaries can be decoupled from sediment MeHg concentration, and that drivers of MeHg production and fate may vary within a small region.     

AD-DICE: an implementation of adaptation in the DICE model

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) have helped us over the past decade to understand the interactions between the environment and the economy in the context of climate change. Although it has also long been recognized that adaptation is a powerful and necessary tool to combat the adverse effects of climate change, most IAMS have not explicitly included the option of adaptation in combating climate change. This paper adds to the IAM and climate change literature by explicitly including adaptation in an IAM, thereby making the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation visible. Specifically, a theoretical framework is created and used to implement adaptation as a decision variable into the DICE model. We use our new AD-DICE model to derive the adaptation cost functions implicit in the DICE model. In our set-up, adaptation and mitigation decisions are separable and AD-DICE can mimic DICE when adaptation is optimal. We find that our specification of the adaptation costs is robust with respect to the mitigation policy scenarios and parameter values. Our numerical results show that adaptation is a powerful option to combat climate change, as it reduces most of the potential costs of climate change in earlier periods, while mitigation does so in later periods.     

Contributions from glacially derived sediment to the global iron (oxyhydr)oxide cycle: Implications for iron delivery to the oceans

Estimates of glacial sediment delivery to the oceans have been derived from fluxes of meltwater runoff and iceberg calving, and their sediment loads. The combined total (2900 Tg yr⁻¹) of the suspended sediment load in meltwaters (1400 Tg yr⁻¹) and the sediment delivered by icebergs (1500 Tg yr⁻¹) are within the range of earlier estimates. High-resolution microscopic observations show that suspended sediments from glacial meltwaters, supraglacial, and proglacial sediments, and sediments in basal ice, from Arctic, Alpine, and Antarctic locations all contain iron (oxyhydr)oxide nanoparticles, which are poorly crystalline, typically ∼5 nm in diameter, and which occur as single grains or aggregates that may be isolated or attached to sediment grains. Nanoparticles with these characteristics are potentially bioavailable. A global model comparing the sources and sinks of iron present as (oxyhydr)oxides indicates that sediment delivered by icebergs is a significant source of iron to the open oceans, beyond the continental shelf. Iceberg delivery of sediment containing iron as (oxyhydr)oxides during the Last Glacial Maximum may have been sufficient to fertilise the increase in oceanic productivity required to drawdown atmospheric CO₂ to the levels observed in ice cores.     

Primary curvature in the Mid-Continent Rift: Paleomagnetism of the Portage Lake Volcanics (northern Michigan, USA)

Rocks of the North American Mid-Continent Rift (MCR) in the Keweenaw Peninsula of northern Michigan display a change in structural trend from east to west, varying in strike from 100° in the east to 35° farther west, before returning to a more east–west trend of 80° near Wisconsin. In general, curvature can be described either as of primary origin, meaning that the arc developed in its present curved state, or as of secondary origin, when the arc formed from an initially straighter geometry. A powerful tool in evaluating the origin and degree of curvature in any deformed belt is paleomagnetism, where coincident change in declination and strike is evidence for secondary curvature. Several paleomagnetic studies have been completed on rift-related sedimentary rocks, as well as lava flows, from the MCR in the Lake Superior region. Paleomagnetic directions for the sedimentary rocks vary much more in declination than in inclination, possibly reflecting a vertical axis rotation. If secondary rotation has affected the sedimentary rocks, then underlying volcanic rocks should also demonstrate a similar rotation.Thirty-one sites were collected from the Portage Lake Volcanics in the most highly curved part of the Keweenaw Peninsula in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Sites were chosen to maximize the variation in structural trend. Thermal demagnetization results showed two components in samples from most sites, a lower temperature A component (< 580 °C) as well as a higher temperature B component (> 580 °C). Both components were tested for primary remanence using a conglomerate test. The A component, carried by magnetite, passes the conglomerate test at a 95% confidence level, and is therefore considered a primary remanence. The B component, carried by hematite, fails at the 95% level and is considered a secondary magnetization. Most importantly, declination of the primary (A) magnetization between sites shows no correlation with strike, demonstrating that vertical axis rotations cannot explain the curvature of the Mid-Continent Rift. We conclude that curvature in the Lake Superior Region is a primary feature, likely reflecting a pre-existing zone of weakness that was exploited during rifting.     

Effect of Roughness on Surface Boundary Conditions for Large-Eddy Simulation

An important parameterization in large-eddy simulations (LESs) of high- Reynolds-number boundary layers, such as the atmospheric boundary layer, is the specification of the surface boundary condition. Typical boundary conditions compute the fluctuating surface shear stress as a function of the resolved (filtered) velocity at the lowest grid points based on similarity theory. However, these approaches are questionable because they use instantaneous (filtered) variables, while similarity theory is only valid for mean quantities. Three of these formulations are implemented in simulations of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer with different aerodynamic surface roughness. Our results show unrealistic influence of surface roughness on the mean profile, variance and spectra of the resolved velocity near the ground, in contradiction of similarity theory. In addition to similarity-based surface boundary conditions, a recent model developed from an a priori experimental study is tested and it is shown to yield more realistic independence of the results to changes in surface roughness. The optimum value of the model parameter found in our simulations matches well the value reported in the a priori wind-tunnel study.     

Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial “wings” in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit “ENSO-like” decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency (reddens the spectrum) of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. At low frequencies, dissipation acts as an additional low pass filter that becomes more effective, as latitude increases. At the same time, ENSO-driven off-equatorial surface heating anomalies drive mixed layer temperature responses in both hemispheres. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of surface heat fluxes by the surface mixed layer act to low pass filter the ENSO-forcing. The resulting off-equatorial variability is therefore more coherent with low pass filtered (decadal) ENSO indices [e.g. NINO3 sea-surface temperature (SST)] than with unfiltered ENSO indices. Consequently large correlations between variability and NINO3 extend further poleward on decadal time-scales than they do on interannual time-scales. This explains why decadal ENSO-like patterns have a broader meridional structure than their interannual counterparts. This difference in appearance can occur even if ENSO indices do not have any predictability beyond interannual time-scales. The wings around 15–20°S, and sub-surface variability at many other locations are predictable on interannual and multi-year time-scales. This includes westward propagating internal RWs within about 25° of the equator. The slowest of these take up to 4 years to reach the western boundary. This sub-surface predictability has significant oceanographic interest. However, it is linked to only low levels of SST variability. Consequently, extrapolation of delayed action oscillator theory to decadal time-scales might not be justified.     

Investigation of coupling between surface processes and induced flow in the lower continental crust as a cause of intraplate seismicity

Many studies have highlighted the role of coupling between surface processes and flow in the lower continental crust in deforming the crust and creating topographic relief over Quaternary timescales. On the basis of the rheological knowledge gained, it is suggested that intraplate seismicity can also be caused by coupling between surface processes and flow in the lower continental crust. This view is shown to be a natural consequence of the modern idea that isostatic equilibrium is maintained by flow in the weak lower crust in response to erosion and sedimentation. It is supported by a general correlation between the vigour of surface processes and rates of intraplate seismicity, and by instances of seasonal seismicity that correlates with seasonal climate. Human interference in the environment can affect surface loading: for instance, deforestation for agriculture or urban development can cause increased erosion rates; global warming is expected to cause increased storminess (and thus increased erosion rates) and/or global sea‐level rise. The possibility of increased rates of seismicity resulting from these processes should thus be considered in future hazard assessment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resolving the Geometry of Hydraulic Fractures from Tilt Measurements

This paper discusses the resolution of geometrical characteristics of pressurized fractures from tiltmeter data. The quasi-static deformation and tilt field induced by such fractures can be modeled by superposition of displacement discontinuity (DD) singularities. Despite the relatively common use of such measurements to infer fracture characteristics, there is a widespread misunderstanding of what can be accurately determined, depending on the relative distance between the tiltmeter array and the fracture. We investigate in detail the resolution of the dimensions and orientation of hydraulic fractures or faults from tilt measurements. In particular, we formally prove that at a distance larger than about twice the characteristic length of the fracture, elastostatic measurements such as those measured by tiltmeters are not able to resolve independently all the dimensions of the fracture, although the fracture volume can be robustly inverted from the data. The resolution of fracture orientation is also discussed using an analysis based on a spatial Fourier Transform of the tilt field. The relative angle between the plane where the measurements are located and the fracture plane plays a major role in the accuracy of this estimation. In an illustrative field example, where the measurements are located in the far-field of the fracture deformation field, we show how a single DD singularity can be used to model tiltmeter data and efficiently obtain the fracture orientation and volume.