A millennial long March–July precipitation reconstruction for southern-central England

We present a millennial long dendroclimatic reconstruction of spring/summer precipitation for southern-central England. Previous research identified a significant moisture stress signal in ring-width data measured from oak trees growing in southern England. In this study, we build upon this earlier work, specifically targeting south-central England, to derive a well replicated oak ring-width composite chronology using both living and historical material. The data-set includes 352 living trees (AD 1629–2009) and 1540 individual historical series (AD 663–1925). The period expressed by at least 50 trees in any year is AD 980–2009. Calibration experiments identify the optimal seasonal predictand target as March–July precipitation (1901–2007: r² = 0.33). However, comparison with the long Kew Gardens precipitation record indicates a weakening in tree-growth/climate response from ~1800 to 1920 which we speculate may be related to smoke and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emissions at that time which may have also contributed to a decrease in tree productivity. The time-series derived using the regional curve standardisation method to capture lower frequency information shows a mediaeval period with alternating multi-decade-long dry and wet periods, with AD 1153–1172 being the wettest reconstructed 20-year period in the whole record. Drier conditions are prevalent from ~1300 to the early sixteenth century followed by a period of increasing precipitation levels. The most recent four centuries of the record appear similar to the mediaeval period with multiple decade-long dry and wet periods. The late twentieth century is the second reconstructed wettest period. These centennial hydroclimatic trends are in broad agreement with independent regional scale hydroclimatic reconstructions from tree-ring (East Anglia), historical, speleothem and peat water level proxy archives in the United Kingdom and appear coupled with reconstructed sea surface temperature changes in the North Atlantic which in turn influence the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and westerly airflow across the UK.     

The real-time city? Big data and smart urbanism

‘Smart cities’ is a term that has gained traction in academia, business and government to describe cities that, on the one hand, are increasingly composed of and monitored by pervasive and ubiquitous computing and, on the other, whose economy and governance is being driven by innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship, enacted by smart people. This paper focuses on the former and, drawing on a number of examples, details how cities are being instrumented with digital devices and infrastructure that produce ‘big data’. Such data, smart city advocates argue enables real-time analysis of city life, new modes of urban governance, and provides the raw material for envisioning and enacting more efficient, sustainable, competitive, productive, open and transparent cities. The final section of the paper provides a critical reflection on the implications of big data and smart urbanism, examining five emerging concerns: the politics of big urban data, technocratic governance and city development, corporatisation of city governance and technological lock-ins, buggy, brittle and hackable cities, and the panoptic city.     

Pollen‐based biome reconstructions for Colombia at 3000, 6000, 9000, 12 000, 15 000 and 18 000 14C yr ago: Late Quaternary tropical vegetation dynamics

Colombian biomes are reconstructed at 45 sites from the modern period extending to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The basis for our reconstruction is pollen data assigned to plant functional types and biomes at six 3000‐yr intervals. A reconstruction of modern biomes is used to check the treatment of the modern pollen data set against a map of potential vegetation. This allows the biomes reconstructed at past periods to be assessed relative to the modern situation. This process also provides a check on the a priori assignment of pollen taxa to plant functional types and biomes. For the majority of the sites, the pollen data accurately reflect the potential vegetation, even though much of the original vegetation has been transformed by agricultural practices. At 18 000 ¹⁴C yr BP, a generally cool and dry environment is reflected in biome, assignments of cold mixed forests, cool evergreen forests and cool grassland–shrub; the latter extending to lower altitudes than presently recorded. This signal is strongly recorded at 15 000 and 12 000 ¹⁴C yr BP, the vegetation at these times also reflecting a relatively cool and dry environment. At 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP there is a shift to biomes thought to result from slightly cooler environmental conditions. This trend is reversed by 6000 ¹⁴C yr BP; most sites, within a range of different environmental settings, recording a shift to more xeric biome types. There is an expansion of steppe and cool mixed‐forest biomes, replacing tropical dry forest and cool grassland–shrub biomes, respectively. These changes in biome assignments from the modern situation can be interpreted as a biotic response to mid‐Holocene climatic aridity. At 3000 ¹⁴C yr BP the shift is mainly to biomes characteristic of slightly more mesic environmental conditions. There are a number of sites that do not change biome assignment relative to the modern reconstruction, although the affinities that these sites have to a specific biome do change. These ‘anomalies’ are interpreted on a site‐by‐site basis. Spatially constant, but differential response of the vegetation to climatic shifts are related to changes in moisture sources and the importance of edaphic controls on the vegetation. The Late Quaternary reconstruction of large‐scale vegetation dynamics in Colombia allows an understanding of the environmental controls on these to be developed. In particular, shifts in the character of the main climatic systems that influence Colombian vegetation are described. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Early fracturing and impact residue emplacement: Can modelling help to predict their location in major craters?

Abstract— Understanding the nature and composition of larger extraterrestrial bodies that may collide with the Earth is important. One source of information lies in the record of ancient impact craters, some of which have yielded chemical information as to the impacting body. Many deeply eroded craters have no remaining melt sheet or ejecta yet may contain impactor residue within basement fractures. The emplacement mechanism for fractionated siderophile residues is likely to be gaseous, although, melt droplets and some solid materials may survive. For breccia‐ and melt‐filled fractures to contain extraterrestrial material, they must form very early in the impact process. Most current numerical models do not dwell on the formation and location of early major fractures, although, fractures in and around small craters on brittle glass exposed to hypervelocity impact in low Earth orbit have been successfully simulated. Modelling of fracture development associated with larger craters may help locate impact residues and test the models themselves.     

Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve‐number equation

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve‐number (SCS‐CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS‐CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non‐point‐source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS‐CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN–VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south‐eastern Australia to produce runoff‐probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN–VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS‐CN method, the distributed CN–VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN–VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS–CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Petrology and geochemistry of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption,central Iceland: compositional and mineralogical characteristics,temporal variability and magma storage

The 2014–2015 Holuhraun fissure eruption provided a rare opportunity to study in detail the magmatic processes and magma plumbing system dynamics during a 6-month-long, moderate- to large-volume basaltic fissure eruption. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive dataset, including major and trace elements of whole-rock and glassy tephra samples, mineral chemistry, and radiogenic and oxygen isotope analyses from an extensive set of samples (n?=?62) that were collected systematically in several field campaigns throughout the entire eruptive period. We also present the first detailed chemical and isotopic characterization of magmatic sulfides from Iceland. In conjunction with a unique set of geophysical data, our approach provides a detailed temporal and spatial resolution of magmatic processes before and during this eruption. The 2014–2015 Holuhraun magma is compositionally indistinguishable from recent basalts erupted from the Bárðarbunga volcanic system, consistent with seismic observations for magma ascent close to the Bárðarbunga central volcano, followed by dyke propagation to the Holuhraun eruption site. Whole-rock elemental and isotopic compositions are remarkably constant throughout the eruption. Moreover, the inferred depth of the magma reservoir tapped during the eruption is consistently 8?±?5 km, in agreement with geodetic observations and melt inclusion entrapment pressures, but inconsistent with vertically extensive multi-tiered magma storage prior to eruption. The near constancy in the chemical and isotopic composition of the lava is consistent with the efficient homogenization of mantle-derived compositional variability. In contrast, occurrence of different mineral populations, including sulfide globules, which display significant compositional variability, requires a more complex earlier magmatic history. This may include sampling of heterogeneous mantle melts that mixed, crystallized and finally homogenized at mid- to lower-crustal conditions.     

Quantifying Tidal Movements of the Shore Crab <Emphasis Type="Italic">Carcinus maenas</Emphasis> on to Complex Epibenthic Bivalve Habitats

Many subtidal predators undertake regular tidal migrations into intertidal areas in order to access abundant prey. One of the most productive habitats in soft bottom intertidal systems is formed by beds of epibenthic bivalves such as blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) and Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas). In the Dutch Wadden Sea, these bivalves might face substantial predation pressure by the shore crab (Carcinus maenas), which increased considerably in numbers during the last 20 years. However, the quantification of this species on bivalve beds is challenging, since most methods common for quantifying animal abundance in marine habitats cannot be used. This study investigated the potential of two methods to quantify the abundance of C. maenas on 14 epibenthic bivalve beds across the Dutch Wadden Sea. The use of the number of crabs migrating from subtidal towards intertidal areas as a proxy of abundance on bivalve beds yielded unreliable results. In contrast, crabs caught with traps on the beds were correlated with the abundance assessed on the surrounding bare flats by beam trawl and therefore provided usable results. The estimates, however, were only reliable for crabs exceeding 35 mm in carapace width (CW). The application of these estimates indicated that crab abundances on bivalve beds were influenced by the biogenic structure. Beds dominated by oysters attracted many large crabs (> 50-mm CW), whereas abundances of medium-sized crabs (35–50-mm CW) showed no relationship to the oyster occurrence. The combination of traps and trawls is capable of quantifying crab abundance on bivalve beds, which offers the possibility to study biotic processes such as predator-prey interactions in these complex structures in more detail.