Forecast of Natural Aquifer Discharge Using a Data‐Driven,Statistical Approach

In the Western United States, demand for water is often out of balance with limited water supplies. This has led to extensive water rights conflict and litigation. A tool that can reliably forecast natural aquifer discharge months ahead of peak water demand could help water practitioners and managers by providing advanced knowledge of potential water‐right mitigation requirements. The timing and magnitude of natural aquifer discharge from the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA) in southern Idaho is accurately forecast 4 months ahead of the peak water demand, which occurs annually in July. An ARIMA time‐series model with exogenous predictors (ARIMAX model) was used to develop the forecast. The ARIMAX model fit to a set of training data was assessed using Akaike's information criterion to select the optimal model that forecasts aquifer discharge, given the previous year's discharge and values of the predictor variables. Model performance was assessed by application of the model to a validation subset of data. The Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency for model predictions made on the validation set was 0.57. The predictor variables used in our forecast represent the major recharge and discharge components of the ESPA water budget, including variables that reflect overall water supply and important aspects of water administration and management. Coefficients of variation on the regression coefficients for streamflow and irrigation diversions were all much less than 0.5, indicating that these variables are strong predictors. The model with the highest AIC weight included streamflow, two irrigation diversion variables, and storage.     

Response of unconfined turbidity current to deep‐water fold and thrust belt topography: Orthogonal incidence on solitary and segmented folds

Sea‐floor topography of deep‐water folds is widely considered to have a major impact on turbidity currents and their depositional systems, but understanding the flow response to such features was limited mainly to conceptual notions inspired by small‐scale laboratory experiments. High‐resolution three‐dimensional numerical experiments can compensate for the lack of natural‐scale flow observations. The present study combines numerical modelling of thrusts with fault‐propagation folds by Trishear3D software with computational fluid dynamics simulations of a natural‐scale unconfined turbidity current by MassFlow‐3D? software. The study reveals the hydraulic and depositional responses of a turbidity current (ca 50 m thick) to typical topographic features that it might encounter in an orthogonal incidence on a sea‐floor deep‐water fold and thrust belt. The supercritical current (ca 10 m sec^?1) decelerated and thickened due to the hydraulic jump on the fold backlimb counter‐slope, where a reverse overflow formed through current self‐reflection and a reverse underflow was issued by backward squeezing of a dense near‐bed sediment load. The reverse flows were re‐feeding sediment to the parental current, reducing its waning rate and extending its runout. The low‐efficiency current, carrying sand and silt, outran a downslope distance of >17 km with only modest deposition (<0·2 m) beyond the fold. Most of the flow volume diverted sideways along the backlimb to surround the fold and spread further downslope, with some overspill across the fold and another hydraulic jump at the forelimb toe. In the case of a segmented fold, a large part of the flow went downslope through the segment boundary. Preferential deposition (0·2 to 1·8 m) occurred on the fold backlimb and directly upslope, and on the forelimb slope in the case of a smaller fold. The spatial patterns of sand entrapment revealed by the study may serve as guidelines for assessing the influence of substrate folds on turbiditic sedimentation in a basin.     

Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales

Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

A skeleton design theory for spatial data infrastructure

In this paper, we look into the theory of designing geoservice systems, i.e., SDI networks and their constituent SDI nodes. As the field of SDI is strongly about bridging between geoservice systems, interoperability and harmonisation, it is not surprising that standardisation efforts are of crucial importance in it. These efforts have historically addressed abstract and concrete content models for data and metadata exchange, as well as abstract and concrete behavioural models for computational processes. The list of standards that are in use in the SDI field continues to expand, and reaches out to neighbouring fields such as sensor nets. We argue that given these trends, the resulting levels of standardisation in actual systems, and the complexity of geoservice systems in general, it appears only natural to look into the possibility to define a standardised design theory for SDI and its nodes, which addresses the function base and the communication base. Specifically, we provide an overview of those components that need to be designed, and what are their relationships. We do so in an abstract way, focussing on the concern of information content in this paper, and only hinting at an appropriate theory of realisation based on our skeleton theory.     

Late Cenozoic surface uplift,basaltic volcanism,and incision by the River Tigris around Diyarbakır,SE Turkey

We document the staircase of terraces of the River Tigris in the Diyarbakır area of SE Turkey, in the northern Arabian Platform, and improve control on the ages of these terrace deposits by dating of overlying basalt flows using the unspiked K–Ar technique. These fluvial terraces are formed of polymict gravel, including clasts derived from the Anatolian metamorphic terrane farther north as well as of local basalt. At least 9 Tigris terraces have been recognised so far, the highest of which, ∼200 m above present river level, marks the local transition from stacked deposition to fluvial incision, the timing of which is bounded between the mid Late Miocene and the Middle Pliocene. Our K–Ar dating indicates a hiatus in fluvial incision in the late Early Pleistocene, as basalts dated to 1.22 ± 0.02 and 1.07 ± 0.03 Ma overlie Tigris gravels at very similar levels, ∼60–70 m above the present river. The lower terraces record the subsequent entrenchment of the modern Tigris valley following an increase in incision rates in the early Middle Pleistocene, evident from the disposition of younger basalt, dated to 0.43 ± 0.02 Ma, capping fluvial gravel only ∼21–22 m above the present river level. Numerical modelling can account for the observed uplift history, as the response to coupling between surface processes and induced flow in the lower crust, with the mobile lower-crust thin (∼5–7 km thick), consistent with the known presence of a thick layer of mafic underplating at the base of the crust beneath the Arabian Platform. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Regional isostatic response to Messinian Salinity Crisis events

The salinity crisis of the Mediterranean during Messinian time was one of the most dramatic episodes of oceanic change of the past 20 or so million years, resulting in the deposition of kilometer thick evaporitic sequences. A large and rapid drawdown of the Mediterranean water level caused erosion and deposition of non-marine sediments in a large ‘Lago Mare’ basin. Both the surface loading by the Lower Messinian evaporites, and the removal of the water load resulted in isostatic/flexural rebound that significantly affected river canyons and topographic slopes. We use flexure models to quantitatively predict possible signatures of these events, and verify these expectations at well-studied margins. The highly irregular shape of the reconstructed basin calls for a three-dimensional model. Near basin margins, plate-bending effects are most pronounced which is why flexure is particularly important for a relatively narrow basin like the Mediterranean. We focus on one specific sea level scenario for the Messinian Salinity Crisis, where most of the evaporite load was deposited during a sea level highstand, followed by a rapid desiccation. Evaporite loading at current sea level is expected to cause subsidence of the deep basins by hundreds of meters and simultaneous uplift of continental parts of the margins. Differential uplift may lead to significant slope angle changes and thus gravity flows. The relative scarcity of Lower Evaporite sequences along the margins may be a result of these phenomena. Normal faulting of Lower Evaporite and older sediments and rocks is expected on the margins. Desiccation enhances erosion of the freshly exposed continental shelf and slope. Subsidence and riverbed sedimentation occurs on the continental margins, and significant uplift towards the basin center. Reverse faulting is predicted at the margins. Finally, regional isostatic uplift following Zanclean flooding is predicted to destabilize margin slope deposits, and to cause marginal uplift, river down-cutting, and normal faulting.     

Levee morphology and sedimentology along the lower Tuross River, south-eastern Australia

Levees on the lower Tuross River in south-eastern Australia reflect a complex interplay between depositional and erosional processes. Stream power, conditioned primarily by valley width, is the key determinant of levee morphology and sedimentology in this confined valley setting. Three styles of levee are described. The Rewlee levee is functionally linked to a flood channel in narrow valley settings (< 250 m). These levees contain a diverse facies assemblage characterized by various scales of erosion surfaces. Vertical accretion on levees has produced conditions under which stream power values exceed the threshold for catastrophic floodplain stripping. The levee at the Mortfield site is associated with less confined settings (valley width 500–600 m), which present lower flood stage and stream power conditions. This levee hosts a wide range of facies, but erosion surfaces are seldom observed. In the more open valley setting at the Central site (valley width 700–1000 m), levees comprise uniform, fine-grained deposits, which grade to pronounced distal floodplains with backswamps. As levees reflect a combination of within-channel and overbank processes, both depositional and erosional, these geomorphic features influence the character and sedimentology of adjacent landforms and the associated alluvial architecture of the basin.     

Intertidal spring dynamics and coastal nutrient loading revealed through geophysics,drone surveys,and in-situ monitoring

Coastal eutrophication poses an increasing risk to ecosystem health due to enhanced nutrient loading to the global coastline. Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) represents a significant pathway for nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃-N) transport to the coast, but diffusive SGD transport is difficult to monitor directly, given the low flux rates and expansive discharge areas. In contrast, focused SGD from intertidal springs can potentially be sampled and directly gauged, providing unique insight into SGD and associated contaminant transport. Basin Head is a coastal lagoon in Prince Edward Island, Canada that is a federally protected ecosystem. Nitrate-nitrogen is conveyed from agricultural fields in the contributing watershed to the eutrophic lagoon via intertidal groundwater springs and groundwater-dominated tributaries. We used several field methods to characterize groundwater discharge, nutrient loading, and in-channel mixing associated with intertidal springs. The tributaries and intertidal springs were gauged and sampled to estimate a representative summer nitrate load to the lagoon. Our analysis revealed that NO₃-N export to the lagoon through tributaries and springs throughout summer 2023 was on average 401 kg N/month, with the combined spring loading comparable in magnitude to the combined tributary loading. We collected thermal infrared and visual imagery using drone surveys and found spatial overlap between cold-water plumes from the spring discharge and macroalgae blooms, indicating the local thermal and ecosystem impacts of the focused SGD. We also mapped the electrical resistivity (salinity) distribution in the water column around one large spring with electromagnetic geophysics at different tidal stages to reveal the three-dimensional spring plume dynamics. Results showed that the fresher spring water floated above the saline lagoon water with the brackish plume oriented in the direction of the tidal current. Collectively, our multi-pronged field investigations help elucidate the hydrologic, thermal, and nutrient dynamics of intertidal springs and the cascading ecosystem impacts.     

Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO₂ and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by ‘walking along equal quantile paths’ of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO₂ and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO₂ concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 ^∘C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO₂ equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See for EQW-software and data.     

On the ‘Divergence Problem’ in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes

An anomalous reduction in forest growth indices and temperature sensitivity has been detected in tree-ring width and density records from many circumpolar northern latitude sites since around the middle 20th century. This phenomenon, also known as the “divergence problem”, is expressed as an offset between warmer instrumental temperatures and their underestimation in reconstruction models based on tree rings. The divergence problem has potentially significant implications for large-scale patterns of forest growth, the development of paleoclimatic reconstructions based on tree-ring records from northern forests, and the global carbon cycle. Herein we review the current literature published on the divergence problem to date, and assess its possible causes and implications. The causes, however, are not well understood and are difficult to test due to the existence of a number of covarying environmental factors that may potentially impact recent tree growth. These possible causes include temperature-induced drought stress, nonlinear thresholds or time-dependent responses to recent warming, delayed snowmelt and related changes in seasonality, and differential growth/climate relationships inferred for maximum, minimum and mean temperatures. Another possible cause of the divergence described briefly herein is ‘global dimming’, a phenomenon that has appeared, in recent decades, to decrease the amount of solar radiation available for photosynthesis and plant growth on a large scale. It is theorized that the dimming phenomenon should have a relatively greater impact on tree growth at higher northern latitudes, consistent with what has been observed from the tree-ring record. Additional potential causes include “end effects” and other methodological issues that can emerge in standardization and chronology development, and biases in instrumental target data and its modeling. Although limited evidence suggests that the divergence may be anthropogenic in nature and restricted to the recent decades of the 20th century, more research is needed to confirm these observations.