Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC

Dealing consistently with risk and uncertainty across the IPCC reports is a difficult challenge. Huge practical difficulties arise from the Panel’s scale and interdisciplinary context, the complexity of the climate change issue and its political context. The key question of this paper is if the observed differences in the handling of uncertainties by the three IPCC Working Groups can be clarified. To address this question, the paper reviews a few key issues on the foundations of uncertainty analysis, and summarizes the history of the treatment of uncertainty by the IPCC. One of the key findings is that there is reason to agree to disagree: the fundamental differences between the issues covered by the IPCC’s three interdisciplinary Working Groups, between the type of information available, and between the dominant paradigms of the practitioners, legitimately lead to different approaches. We argue that properly using the IPCC’s Guidance Notes for Lead Authors for addressing uncertainty, adding a pedigree analysis for key findings, and particularly communicating the diverse nature of uncertainty to the users of the assessment would increase the quality of the assessment. This approach would provide information about the nature of the uncertainties in addition to their magnitude and the confidence assessors have in their findings.     

Unravelling the hydrological effects on spatiotemporal variability of water chemistry in mountainous rivers from Southwest China

Understanding the effects of hydrological processes on solute dynamics is critical to interpret biogeochemical processes. Water chemistry and isotopic compositions of surface water (δ¹⁸O_w and δD_w) were investigated in rivers from Southwest China to study the effects of hydrological variability on biogeochemical processes. The inverse relationship between deuterium excess (d-excess) and δ¹⁸O_w could be ascribed to non-equilibrium fractionation processes, and the slope of the Local River Water Line was much lower than the Local Meteoric Water Line, suggesting the post-precipitation evaporation pattern. The evaporation fraction (1–f) was estimated by the d-excess method, varying from 0.01 to 0.18. (1–f), was a function of water temperature and drainage mean elevation, indicating that evaporation easily occurs at high temperatures in low-elevation regions. The hydrological processes co-varied with solute dynamics in the river network, and fluid transit time and temperature were likely responsible for the co-variations. Also, we found that hydrological processes played an important role in solute dynamics through shifting the geochemical processes (e.g., enrichment, water-rock reaction, photosynthesis, and secondary mineral precipitation). This study highlights that biogeochemical processes co-vary with hydrological processes, and we suggest that investigating hydrological processes can help to understand biogeochemical processes.     

Land use,soil erosion,and sediment yield at Pinto Lake,California: comparison of a simplified USLE model with the lake sediment record

Quantitative interpretation of past land use using palaeolimnological records of sediment yield requires an appropriate soil erosion model. This paper describes the application of a simplified USLE model, comparing the predicted sediment yield with the lake sediment record at Pinto Lake (Central Coast, California). Our principal finding is that simplified USLE prediction, without correction for sediment transport capacity, accurately predicts fine sediment yield. Because the fine component of the soil is delivered far more efficiently than the coarse component, this and related soil erosion models can more readily be applied to the interpretation of palaeolimnological records than to estimation of total sediment yield, for which reliable estimation of hillslope and fluvial sediment storage are more important. The focus on fine sediment also means that the model output is optimal for assessing past ecological impacts of soil erosion on stream water turbidity and particulate transport of pollutants and nutrients.     

Foreign policy ‘trilemmas’: understanding China's stance on international cap-and-trade

This article uses a policy analogy approach to explore China's attitude toward the possibility of global carbon market integration, including the development of a common cap-and-trade market for the global civil aviation industry. Like in other foreign policy domains, in international cap-and-trade, China faces a ‘trilemma’ between carbon market integration, state sovereignty and policy flexibility. By referring to how China has approached a comparable trilemma in foreign exchange policy making, we analyse China's possible stance on international cap-and-trade. We argue that China will prefer to gradually establish and strengthen, to a limited extent, intergovernmental governance mechanisms, which allow nation-states to prioritize sovereignty and policy flexibility in carbon trading policy making. In the conclusion we use this argument to explain China's responses to the carbon-trading initiatives of Australia, the EU, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and the World Bank.

Policy relevance

The international community has reached a consensus on the use of market mechanisms for mitigating climate change. While opposing the EU's plan to include Chinese airlines in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, China has started to co-explore with Australia the possibility of linking their carbon markets, and has adopted a supportive attitude toward the carbon trading initiatives led by the ICAO and the World Bank. Considering China's status as the largest emitting country of GHGs and its interdependence with major developed and developing countries, China's substantial participation would be crucial to the success of the global market-based efforts to reduce GHG emissions. This article presents an initial attempt to develop a better understanding of China's stance on international cap-and-trade.     

A feasibility study of borehole radar as a permanent downhole sensor

Permanent downhole sensors provide the eyes and ears to the reservoir and enable monitoring the reservoir conditions on a real‐time basis. In particular, the use of sensors and remotely controlled valves in wells and on the surface, in combination with reservoir flow models provide enormous benefits to reservoir management and oil production. We suggest borehole radar measurements as a promising technique capable to monitor the arrival of undesired fluids in the proximity of production wells. We use 1D modelling to investigate the expected signal magnitude and depth of investigation of a borehole radar sensor operating in an oilfield environment. We restrict the radar applicability to environments where the radar investigation depth can fit the reservoir size necessary to be monitored. Potential applications are steam chamber monitoring in steam assisted gravity drainage processes and water front monitoring in thin oil rim environments. A more sophisticated analysis of the limits of a radar system is carried out through 2D finite‐difference time‐domain simulations. The metal components of the wellbore casing can cause destructive interference with the emitted signal. A high dielectric medium surrounding the production well increases the amplitude of the signal and so the radar performance. Other reservoir constraints are given by the complexity of the reservoir and the dynamic of the fluids. Time‐lapse changes in the heterogeneity of the background formation strongly affect the retrieval of the target reflections and gradual fluid saturation changes reduce the amplitudes of the reflections.     

Marine mammals and debris in coastal waters of British Columbia, Canada

Entanglement in and ingestion of synthetic marine debris is increasingly recognized worldwide as an important stressor for marine wildlife, including marine mammals. Studying its impact on wildlife populations is complicated by the inherently cryptic nature of the problem. The coastal waters of British Columbia (BC), Canada provide important habitat for marine mammal species, many of which have unfavorable conservation status in the US and Canada. As a priority-setting exercise, we used data from systematic line-transect surveys and spatial modeling methods to map at-sea distribution of debris and 11 marine mammal species in BC waters, and to identify areas of overlap. We estimated abundance of 36,000 (CIs: 23,000-56,600) pieces of marine debris in the region. Areas of overlap were often far removed from urban centers, suggesting that the extent of marine mammal-debris interactions would be underestimated from opportunistic sightings and stranding records, and that high-overlap areas should be prioritized by stranding response networks.     

Bacterial dissolution of fluorapatite as a possible source of elevated dissolved phosphate in the environment

In order to understand the contribution of geogenic phosphorus to lake eutrophication, we have investigated the rate and extent of fluorapatite dissolution in the presence of two common soil bacteria (Pantoea agglomerans and Bacillus megaterium) at T = 25 °C for 26 days. The release of calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), and rare earth elements (REE) under biotic and abiotic conditions was compared to investigate the effect of microorganism on apatite dissolution. The release of Ca and P was enhanced under the influence of bacteria. Apatite dissolution rates obtained from solution Ca concentration in the biotic reactors increased above error compared with abiotic controls. Chemical analysis of biomass showed that bacteria scavenged Ca, P, and REE during their growth, which lowered their fluid concentrations, leading to apparent lower release rates. The temporal evolution of pH in the reactors reflected the balance of apatite weathering, solution reactions, bacterial metabolism, and potentially secondary precipitation, which was implied in the variety of REE patterns in the biotic and abiotic reactors. Light rare earth elements (LREE) were preferentially adsorbed to cell surfaces, whereas heavy rare earth elements (HREE) were retained in the fluid phase. Decoupling of LREE and HREE could possibly be due to preferential release of HREE from apatite or selective secondary precipitation of LREE enriched phosphates, especially in the presence of bacteria. When corrected for intracellular concentrations, both biotic reactors showed high P and REE release compared with the abiotic control. We speculate that lack of this correction explains the conflicting findings about the role of bacteria in mineral weathering rates. The observation that bacteria enhance the release rates of P and REE from apatite could account for some of the phosphorus burden and metal pollution in aquatic environments.     

Unforeseen importance of historical collections as baselines to determine biotic change of coral reefs: the Saba Bank case

Botanical and zoological collections may serve as archives for historical ecological research on the effects of global change and human impact on coral reef biota. Museum collections may harbour old specimens of reef‐dwelling species that have become locally extinct. Such collections also help to determine whether early records of invasive species can be obtained from times when they were not yet recognized as such. A case study (2006) involving Saba Bank, Caribbean Netherlands (former Netherlands Antilles), suggests that the coral reef fauna here may have become impoverished when compared with data obtained during an earlier expedition in 1972. However, the 1972 sampling may have been incomplete, as it was performed by professional divers who were not trained taxonomists, whereas the collecting in 2006 was done by experienced marine biologists who knew the taxa they were sampling. As Saba Bank has been under stress due to the anchoring of large vessels, and invasive species have been a potential threat as well, future studies are needed to obtain more insights into the changing reef biota of Saba Bank. Using this Saba Bank example, we want to address the importance of natural history collections as reservoirs of valuable data relevant to coral reef biodiversity studies in a time of global change. As such, these collections are still underexplored and underexploited.     

Palaeomagnetic Study on the Precambrian-Cambrian Boundary Candidate Stratotype Section at Meishucun, Yunnan

The Meishucun secton has been recommended as an international candidate stratotype secton of thePrecambrian-Cambrian boundary. The paper deals with the palaeomagnetic study on the section. A total of159 palaeomagnetic samples were successively collected from the platform-facies sequence of carbonates andphosphates at the section. Thermal demagnetization results indicate a great majority of the rocks at the sectionhave been strongly overprinted by recent magnetic field, but 57 samples have preserved remanentmagnetization with antipodal directions (mean D/I=4.2°/ 7.1°, K=9, α_(95) = 6.6°). Baaed on calculation,the location of the palaeomagnetic pole was at 68.8°N and 270.7°E, which is different from any palaeopolesobtained from younger Phanerozoic rocks in South China. The results reveal a polarity zonation which in-cludes at least 9 reversal events. A comparison of China's magnetostratigraphic records with those fromSiberia, Australia and the western U.S.A. shows that all the sections are characterized by frequent polarity re-versals.