The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation

This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change.

     

Three-dimensional earthquake locations and upper crustal structure of the Sannio-Matese region (southern Italy)

The Sannio-Matese region is one of the most seismically active regions of Italy and has been struck by large historical earthquakes. At present, the area is characterized by low magnitude background seismicity and small seismic sequences following M4 main events. In this paper, we show Vp and Vp/Vs models and 3D locations for a complete set of earthquakes occurring in the period 1991–2001. We observe a significant crustal heterogeneity, with large scale east-verging high Vp fault-related-folds, stacked by the Pliocene compression. The relocated earthquakes cluster along a 70° east-dipping, NW-striking plane located at the border of the high Vp thrust units. Normal fault earthquakes related to the young and active extension occur within these high Vp zones, interpreted as high strength material. We expect large future earthquakes to occur within these high Vp zones actually characterized by low magnitude seismicity at their borders.     

Exploration and decision-making in geotechnical engineering – a case study

ABSTRACT

The paper presents methodologies for exploration planning under uncertain conditions based on virtual exploration and Bayesian updating. The process starts with site characterization using existing information to produce geologic profiles. Initial distributions of cost and time are obtained with a Bayesian network model that optimizes the construction strategy for particular geologic conditions. This is followed by the unique step to determine with a “virtual exploration” if additional exploration (e.g. borings) is warranted, and if so, where it should be best done. All this is then applied to the planned Abu Dhabi subway tunnels providing the transportation planners with necessary information for planning and design.     

Antibiotic Resistance and Plasmid Profiles of Vibrio Isolates from Cultured Silver Sea Bream, Sparus sarba

A total of 51 potential pathogenic vibrios were isolated from moribund silver sea bream (Sparus sarba) collected from fish farms in Hong Kong. Using the API 20E system and the scheme of Alsina and Blanch (1994), 7 species were identified from all isolates. These species were Vibrio alginolyticus (24 strains), Vibrio vulnificus (12 strains), Vibrio parahaemolyticus (7 strains), Vibrio logei (4 strains), Vibrio pelagius II (2 strains), Vibrio fluvialis (1 strain) and Vibrio meditterranei (1 strain). The three dominant species (V. alginolyticus, V. vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus) were confirmed to be virulent to sea bream by experimental challenge.

All isolates were screened for plasmid DNA by agarose gel electrophoresis and tested for susceptibility to 16 antibiotics by the agar dilution method. Of the 51 isolates examined, all strains were sensitive to ceftriaxone, streptomycin, nalidixic acid and rifampicin, and almost all were sensitive to ceftazidime, netilimicin, chloramphenicol and sulfamethoxazole. Most isolates were resistant to ampicillin (60.8%), cefuroxime (66.7%), amikacin (55%), kanamycin (58.8%) and trimethoprim (76.5%). Fifteen of the 51 isolates harboured 1–4 plasmids, with sizes ranging from 9 to 123 kb. Both the plasmids and the associated antibiotic resistance (ampicillin, cefuroxime and trimethoprim) of 9 isolates could be transferred to a recipient by single-step conjugation. However, the frequencies were very low, ranging from 10⁻¹¹ to 10⁻⁹. The present results indicate that resistance to these antibiotics is chromosomal.     

Occurrence of Somma-Vesuvio fine ashes in the tephrostratigraphic record of Panarea,Aeolian Islands

Ash-rich tephra layers interbedded in the pyroclastic successions of Panarea island (Aeolian archipelago, Southern Italy) have been analyzed and related to their original volcanic sources. One of these tephra layers is particularly important as it can be correlated by its chemical and morphoscopic characteristics to the explosive activity of Somma-Vesuvio. Correlation with the Pomici di Base eruption, that is considered one of the largest explosive events causing the demolition of the Somma stratovolcano, seems the most probable. The occurrence on Panarea island of fine ashes related to this eruption is of great importance for several reasons: 1) it allows to better constrain the time stratigraphy of the Panarea volcano; 2) it provides a useful tool for tephrochronological studies in southern Italy and finally 3) it allows to improve our knowledge on the distribution of the products of the Pomici di Base eruption giving new insights on the dispersion trajectories of fine ashes from plinian plumes. Other exotic tephra layers interbedded in the Panarea pyroclastic successions have also been found. Chemical and sedimentological characteristics of these layers allow their correlation with local vents from the Aeolian Islands thus constraining the late explosive activity of Panarea dome.     

Changing eruptive styles in basaltic explosive volcanism: Examples from Croscat complex scoria cone, Garrotxa Volcanic Field (NE Iberian Peninsula)

The Croscat pyroclastic succession has been analysed to investigate the transition between different eruptive styles in basaltic monogenetic volcanoes, with particular emphasis on the role of phreatomagmatism in triggering Violent Strombolian eruptions. Croscat volcano, an 11 ka basaltic complex scoria cone in the Quaternary Garrotxa Volcanic Field (GVF) shows pyroclastic deposits related both to magmatic and phreatomagmatic explosions.Lithofacies analysis, grain size distribution, chemical composition, glass shard morphologies, vesicularity, bubble-number density and crystallinity of the Croscat pyroclastic succession have been used to characterize the different eruptive styles. Eruptions at Croscat began with fissural Hawaiian-type fountaining that rapidly changed to eruption types transitional between Hawaiian and Strombolian from a central vent. A first phreatomagmatic phase occurred by the interaction between magma and water from a shallow aquifer system at the waning of the Hawaiian- and Strombolian-types stage. A Violent Strombolian explosion then occurred, producing a widespread (8 km²), voluminous tephra blanket. The related deposits are characterized by the presence of wood-shaped, highly vesicular scoriae. Glass-bearing xenoliths (buchites) are also present within the deposit. At the waning of the Violent Strombolian phase a second phreatomagmatic phase occurred, producing a second voluminous deposit dispersed over 8.4 km². The eruption ended with a lava flow emission and consequent breaching of the western-side of the volcano. Our data suggest that the Croscat Violent Strombolian phase was related to the ascent of deeper, crystal-poor, highly vesicular magma under fast decompression rate. Particles and vesicles elongation and brittle failure observed in the wood-shaped clasts indicate that fragmentation during Violent Strombolian phase was enhanced by high strain-rate of the magma within the conduit.     

Environmental features of deep-sea habitats linked to the genetic population structure of a crustacean species in the Mediterranean Sea

The deep-sea habitat, from 200 to 2000 m depth, has long been thought as an ecosystem where biotic and abiotic factors vary very little and consequently species are not disturbed by processes and phenomena which could promote fast evolutionary mechanisms. Unfortunately, biological information relating to deep water is limited, especially regarding the population genetics of species inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea, and general patterns cannot be inferred. In this study we report data on the population genetic structure of Aristeus antennatus , a deep-sea decapod crustacean species which has been widely studied due to its important economic value. We surveyed and examined the variation in a 369-bp fragment of the mtDNA control region from individuals caught by Spanish and Italian trawlers in eight localities. High levels of mitochondrial control region haplotypic diversity (ranging from 0.884 to 0.989) were observed. AMOVA showed a high level of genetic variation, more within than between populations, and a low but significant Φ_ST value was recovered. Minimum spanning network did not separate any haplotype group and haplotype distribution does not mirror the geographic origin of the samples. The absence of population substructuring was also observed with a principal coordinates analysis, which uses an individual-by-individual comparison. These results revealed extensive gene flow among populations. Information on demographic history based on mismatch analysis revealed an unstable population, showing an alternate pattern of growth and decline. Our results indicated that in the western and central Mediterranean basins A. antennatus is a large panmictic population with a fluctuating abundance. The absence of deep-sea barriers and adult migration may prevent the structuring of the species into genetically differentiated populations.