Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Do CRISTA Experiment/Campaign Data Represent a Typical Situation or Not?

Data from four A3 radio wave circuits in central Europe are used to analyse the representativeness of the ionization and gravity wave activity pattern in the lower ionosphere (85 – 100 km) in the CRISTA experiment interval (3 – 12 November 1994) for the given conditions. It has been found that the CRISTA experiment interval was run under conditions, which are highly representative both of October – November 1994 and autumn, low-moderate solar activity, the descending phase of solar cycle conditions, i.e. CRISTA measurements may be considered to provide values identical with, or close to climatological values (at least for central Europe, h = 85 – 100 km).     

Effect of the dilution process on the attenuation of contaminants in aquifers

This paper discusses the effects of the dilution process on levels of aquifer contamination attenuation, developing analytical equations for application in theoretical and practical cases. The key finding is that, in aquifers, the dilution process causes a reduction of the contaminant concentration. Analytical equations for the assessment of the contaminant attenuation capacity, by means of the dilution process in an aquifer, are put forward. In particular, the attenuation of the contaminant concentration in an aquifer, and thus the dilution, is described by the volumetric flow rate per unit width perpendicular to the flow direction (q _u). Moreover, a classification of q _u was developed, considering six classes of attenuation capacity due to dilution. For the equations validation, nitrate contamination attenuation due to dilution was analysed in two sample areas in Piedmont (North-West Italy). The results confirmed the hypothesis, evidencing high nitrate concentrations in areas with low q _u values, connected to low dilution rate of the contaminant in the groundwater; vice versa, low nitrate concentrations were evidenced in areas with high q _u values, due to a high nitrate dilution rate.     

The Pozzo del Sale Groundwaters (Irpinia, Southern Apennines, Italy): Origin and Mechanisms of Salinization

Chemical and water isotope ratios data for groundwaters from the Pozzo del Sale area in the Irpinia sector of the Southern Apennines are presented. The water chemistry of the aquifer system may initially be regarded as the result of easy and common, low temperature interaction between meteoric water and Late Messinian evaporites, which produce Ca-bicarbonate and Na-chloride passing through Ca-sulfate waters. However, a closer inspection reveals a more complicated geochemical setting consisting of: (1) two further Na-sulfate and Ca(Mg)-sulfate waters; (2) the existence of different meteoric recharge areas; (3) the mixing between the different groundwaters and allochthonous fluids from terrestrial mud volcanoes. The salinization mechanism and the local mineralogy were inferred by classical and novel ternary and binary diagrams. The presence of MgSO₄- and Na₂SO₄-bearing minerals of non-marine or mixed origin other than gypsum and halite within the local evaporites suggests a mineralogical heterogeneity within the local Messinian evaporites. The paleoenvironment of this sector of the Gessoso–Solfifera Formation might have been composed of relatively small playa-lakes fed by seawater but also large amounts of continental waters of meteoric origin.     

Dissociation constants of protonated cysteine species in seawater media

The dissociation constants (pK₁, pK₂ and pK₃) for cysteine have been measured in seawater as a function of temperature (5 to 45 °C) and salinity (S = 5 to 35). The seawater values were lower than the values in NaCl at the same ionic strength. In an attempt to understand these differences, we have made measurements of the constants in Na–Mg–Cl solutions at 25 °C. The measured values have been compared to those calculated from the Pitzer ionic interaction model. The lower values of pK₃ in the Na–Mg–Cl solutions have been attributed to the formation of Mg²⁺ complexes with Cys²⁻ anions

Mg²⁺ + Cys²⁻ = MgCys

The stability constants have been fitted to

after corrections are made for the interaction of Mg²⁺ with H⁺.The pK₁ seawater measurements indicate that H₃Cys⁺ interacts with SO₄²⁻. The Pitzer parameters β⁰(H₃CysSO₄), β¹(H₃CysSO₄) and C(H₃CysSO₄) have been determined for this interaction. The formation of CaCys as well as MgCys are needed to account for the values of pK₂ and pK₃ in seawater.The consideration of the formation of MgCys and CaCys in seawater yields model calculated values of pK₁, pK₂ and pK₃ that agree with the measured values to within the experimental error of the measurements. This study shows that it is important to consider all of the ionic interactions in natural waters when examining the dissociation of organic acids.     

Dinoflagellate cyst stratigraphy and depositional history of Miocene and Lower Pliocene formations in northern Belgium (southern North Sea Basin)

The occurrence of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) in the Diest Formation, a largely decalcified succession with a poor fossil content, and in the adjacent strata of Lower Miocene and Lower Pliocene formations, allowed a biostratigraphic evaluation of these deposits and an assessment of the hiatus between the lithostratigraphic units. The Diest Formation was deposited during Tortonian – Messinian times. Dinocyst biozones defined in the North Sea region and the U.S.A. East Coast are recognised within the Diest Formation, although environmental factors seem to have influenced the presence of some key zonal species in the shallow-marine deposits of northern Belgium. The two members of the Diest Formation studied, i.e., the Dessel Sands and the Diest Sands, appear to be strongly diachronous. The depocentre was located in the Campine area during the early Tortonian and shifted to the area north of Antwerp during late Tortonian to Messinian times. The age assessment provides a correlation of the sequence boundaries of Haq et al. (1987) at the top of the Diest Formation with SB 5.5.     

Neural networks and the separation of cosmic microwave background and astrophysical signals in sky maps

We implement an independent component analysis (ICA) algorithm to separate signals of different origin in sky maps at several frequencies. Owing to its self-organizing capability, it works without prior assumptions on either the frequency dependence or the angular power spectrum of the various signals; rather, it learns directly from the input data how to identify the statistically independent components, on the assumption that all but, at most, one of the components have non-Gaussian distributions.
We have applied the ICA algorithm to simulated patches of the sky at the four frequencies (30, 44, 70 and 100 GHz) used by the Low Frequency Instrument of the European Space Agency's Planck satellite. Simulations include the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the synchrotron and thermal dust emissions, and extragalactic radio sources. The effects of the angular response functions of the detectors and of instrumental noise have been ignored in this first exploratory study. The ICA algorithm reconstructs the spatial distribution of each component with rms errors of about 1 per cent for the CMB, and 10 per cent for the much weaker Galactic components. Radio sources are almost completely recovered down to a flux limit corresponding to ≃0.7 σ _CMB, where σ _CMB is the rms level of the CMB fluctuations. The signal recovered has equal quality on all scales larger than the pixel size. In addition, we show that for the strongest components (CMB and radio sources) the frequency scaling is recovered with per cent precision. Thus, algorithms of the type presented here appear to be very promising tools for component separation. On the other hand, we have been dealing here with a highly idealized situation. Work to include instrumental noise, the effect of different resolving powers at different frequencies and a more complete and realistic characterization of astrophysical foregrounds is in progress.     

Titanium- and water-rich metamorphic olivine in high-pressure serpentinites from the Voltri Massif (Ligurian Alps,Italy): evidence for deep subduction of high-field strength and fluid-mobile elements

Titanium- and water-rich metamorphic olivine (Fo 86–88) is reported from partially dehydrated serpentinites from the Voltri complex, Ligurian Alps. The rocks are composed of mostly antigorite and olivine in addition to magnetite, chlorite, clinopyroxene and Ti-clinohumite. In situ secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) data show that metamorphic olivine has very high and strongly correlated H₂O (up to 0.7 wt%) and TiO₂ contents (up to 0.85 wt%). Ti-rich olivine shows colourless to yellow pleochroism. Olivine associated with Ti-clinohumite contains low Ti, suggesting that Ti-rich olivine is not the breakdown product of Ti-clinohumite. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) absorption spectra show peaks of serpentine, Ti-clinohumite and OH-related Si vacancies. Combining FTIR and SIMS data, we suggest the presence of clustered planar defects or nanoscale exsolutions of Ti-clinohumite in olivine. These defects or exsolutions contain more H₂O (x ~ 0.1 in the formula 4Mg₂SiO₄·(1?x)Mg(OH,F)₂·xTiO₂) than Ti-clinohumite in the sample matrix (x = 0.34–0.46). In addition to TiO₂ and H₂O, secondary olivine contains significant Li (2–60 ppm), B (10–20 ppm), F (10–130 ppm) and Zr (0.9–2.1 ppm). It is enriched in ¹¹B (δ¹¹B = +17 to +23 ‰). Our data indicate that secondary olivine may play a significant role in transporting water, high-field strength and fluid-mobile elements into the deeper mantle as well as introduce significant B isotope anomalies. Release of hydrogen from H₂O-rich olivine subducted into the deep mantle may result in strongly reduced mantle domains.