Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Variability in Early Amazonian Tharsis stress state based on wrinkle ridges and strike-slip faulting

We present evidence for a decrease in the magnitude of Tharsis-circumferential compressive stress during the Late Hesperian to the Middle Amazonian based on chronologic changes in the predominant style of faulting in southern Amazonis Planitia. Using high-resolution MOLA topography, we identify a population of strike-slip faults that exhibit Middle Amazonian-aged displacements of regional chrono-stratigraphic units. These strike-slip faults are adjacent to an older population of previously documented Late Hesperian-aged thrust faults (wrinkle ridges). Along-strike orientations of these thrust and strike-slip faults reveal the Tharsis-radial stress to be the area's most compressive remote principal stress and that this stress orientation and magnitude persisted throughout the Late Hesperian to the Middle Amazonian. We show that the change in the predominant style of faulting from thrust faulting to strike-slip faulting during this time requires a decrease of the Tharsis-circumferential compressive stress to a magnitude less than lithostatic load, with negligible change in stress orientation.     

Displacement-length scaling relations for faults on the terrestrial planets

Displacement-length (D/L)scaling relations for normal and thrust faults from Mars, and thrust faults from Mercury, for which sufficiently accurate measurements are available, are consistently smaller than terrestrial D/L ratios by a factor of about 5, regardless of fault type (i.e. normal or thrust). We demonstrate that D/L ratios for faults scale, to first order, with planetary gravity. In particular, confining pressure modulates: (1) the magnitude of shear driving stress on the fault; (2) the shear yield strength of near-tip rock; and (3) the Young's (or shear) modulus of crustal rock. In general, all three factors decrease with gravity for the same rock type and pore-pressure state (e.g. wet conditions). Faults on planets with lower surface gravities, such as Mars and Mercury, demonstrate systematically smaller D/L ratios than faults on larger planets, such as Earth. Smaller D/L ratios of faults on Venus and the Moon are predicted by this approach, and we infer still smaller values of D/L ratio for faults on icy satellites in the outer solar system. Collection of additional displacement-length and down-dip height data from terrestrial normal, strike-slip, and thrust faults, located within fold-and-thrust belts, plate margins, and continental interiors, is required to evaluate the influence of fault shape and progressive deformation on the scaling relations for faults from Earth and elsewhere.     

The bimodal rift-related Juscelândia volcanosedimentary sequence in central Brazil: Mesoproterozoic extension and Neoproterozoic metamorphism

The Barro Alto Complex and Juscelândia volcanosedimentary sequence are exposed in the central part of the Neoproterozoic Brasília belt of central Brazil. The former is a large (approximately 150 km long), boomerang-shaped, mafic-ultramafic, layered complex formed by two different intrusions metamorphosed under granulite facies. These rocks are tectonically overlain by rocks of the Juscelândia volcanosedimentary sequence, represented mainly by biotite-gneiss and amphibolite, or amphibolite facies metamorphic equivalents of rhyolite and basalt, respectively. New SIMS U–Pb zircon data and Sm–Nd isochron data presented herein help clarify the igneous and metamorphic evolution of the Juscelândia volcanosedimentary sequence, as well as its relationship with the Barro Alto Complex. Zircon grains from two biotite gneisses were analyzed by SIMS (SHRIMP) and indicate Mesoproterozoic dates, approximately 1.28 Ga, interpreted as the time of bimodal volcanism in a tectonic setting transitional between a continental rift and an ocean basin. Metamorphism is constrained by Sm–Nd garnet-whole-rock isochrons for garnet amphibolite and pelitic schists of the Juscelândia sequence, as well as for clinopyroxene-garnet amphibolite and garnet granulite of the Barro Alto Complex, which give ages between 0.74 and 0.76 Ga, in agreement with SIMS dates for metamorphic zircon rims. These new data are significant, because they establish that a single metamorphic event affected both the Barro Alto Complex and the Juscelândia sequence. Based on these new data, we present a modified tectonic model for the Brasília belt.     

Ophiomorpha irregulaire, rare trace fossil in shallow marine sandstones, Cretaceous Atane Formation, West Greenland

Ophiomorpha irregulaire is a large and extremely rare trace fossil. The type section is in the Book Cliffs, Utah, USA. A second on-shore locality is reported here, in the Nuussuaq Basin of West Greenland. Both occurrences date from the Late Cretaceous. Other reports of O. irregulaire are restricted to two-dimensional sections in well cores and are mostly Jurassic in age. The West Greenland occurrence is in the Atane Formation in shallow marine clean sandstone. The two on-shore localities lie in the same biogeographical region, in connection with the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway of North America. O. irregulaire is characterized by a sinuous, branched meander maze lying mostly within a single horizontal plane, probably not far beneath the seafloor. The burrow lining has remarkably elongate pellets that probably were emplaced by the burrower. In some cases, diagenetic compression may have deformed the lining pellets to produce their elongated shape. The muddy sediment comprising the lining is almost unrepresented in the clean sands of the substrate, and it was probably trapped from suspension during suspension-feeding activity.     

Variations in water clarity and chlorophylla in Tampa Bay, Florida, in response to annual rainfall, 1985–2004

In the Tampa Bay region of Florida, extreme levels of annual and seasonal rainfall are often associated with tropical cyclones and strong El Niño episodes. We used stepwise multiple regression models to describe associations between annual and seasonal rainfall levels and annual, bay-segment mean water clarity (as Secchi depth [m]), chlorophylla (μg I^?1), color (pcu), and turbidity (ntu) over a 20-yr period (1985–2004) during which estimated nutrient loadings have been dominated by non-point sources. For most bay segments, variations in annual mean water clarity were associated with variations in chlorophylla concentrations, which were associated in turn with annual or seasonal rainfall. In two bay segments these associations with annual rainfall were superimposed on significant long-term declining trends in chlorophylla. Color was significantly associated with annual rainfall in all bay segments, and in one segment variations in color were the best predictors of variations in water clarity. Turbidity showed a declining trend over time in all bay segments and no association with annual rainfall, and was significantly associated with variations in water clarity in only one bay segment. While chlorophylla, color, and turbidity a affected water clarity to varying degrees, the effects of extreme rainfall events (El Niño events in 1998 and 2003, and multiple tropical cyclone events in 2004) on water clarity were relatively short-lived, persisting for periods of months rather than years. During the 20-yr period addressed in these analyses, declining temporal trends in chlorophylla and turbidity, produced in part by a long-term watershed management program that has focused on curtailing annual loadings of nitrogen and other pollutants, may have helped to prevent the bay as a whole from responding more adversely to the high rainfall periods that occurred in 1998 and 2003–2004.     

Geomorphic effects of rural-to-urban land use conversion on three streams in the Central Redbed Plains of Oklahoma

This research evaluates the impact of rural-to-urban land use conversion on channel morphology and riparian vegetation for three streams in the Central Redbed Plains geomorphic province (central Great Plains ecoregion) of Oklahoma. The Deep Fork Creek watershed is largely urbanized; the Skeleton Creek watershed is largely rural; and the Stillwater Creek watershed is experiencing a rapid transition from rural to urban land cover. Each channel was divided into reaches based on tributary junctions, sinuosity, and slope. Field surveys were conducted at transects in a total of 90 reaches, including measurements of channel units, channel cross-section at bankfull stage, and riparian vegetation. Historical aerial photographs were available for only Stillwater Creek watershed, which were used to document land cover in this watershed, especially changes in the extent of urban areas (impervious cover).The three streams have very low gradients (< 0.001), width-to-depth ratios < 10, and cohesive channel banks, but have incised into red Permian shales and sandstone. The riparian vegetation is dominated by cottonwoods, ash, and elm trees that provide a dense root mat on stream banks where the riparian vegetation is intact. Channels increased in width and depth in the downstream direction as is normally expected, but the substrate materials and channel units remained unchanged. Statistical analyses demonstrated that urbanization did not explain spatial patterns of changes in any variables. These three channels in the central Redbed Plains are responding as flumes during peak flows, funneling runoff and the wash-load sediment downstream in major runoff events without any effect on channel dimensions. Therefore, local geological conditions (similar bedrock, cohesive substrates and similar riparian vegetation) are mitigating the effects of urbanization.     

Kaleidoscoping Landscapes,Shifting Perspectives

Landscapes change in complex ways, creating surface patterns reminiscent of forms seen through a kaleidoscope. On the Earth's surface, those forms are linked to, and caused by, processes that originate with bedrock‐soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere interactions. Human‐caused alterations to landscapes are additionally tied to socioeconomic processes. Evaluation of landscape‐level processes can benefit from examining (1) the influence of disturbance regimes in altering landscape patterns, (2) the importance of considering surficial processes, (3) the subtle and cryptic spatial relations that may be present, (4) the reciprocal relationships among local processes and regional consequences, (5) the increased likelihood of some land cover transitions compared to others, and (6) the special case of landscapes with long histories of human use. These are all examples of potential fruitful arenas for interactions and represent a path for expansion of landscape ecology through accommodation of a broad range of content covered by the international GIScience community.     

The Earthquake Readiness Scale: The Development of a Valid and Reliable Unifactorial Measure

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.