A proposal for a new statistic and technique development for the design and evaluation of cloud seeding experiments

Abstract

The use of short‐term predictions of rain flux from isolated showers is discussed in the context of the design and evaluation of cloud‐seeding experiments. It is found that for a sample of 85 seeded convective clouds a seeding effect of 25% could be detected at the 10% significance level.     

An occurrence of ardennite in quartz veins in piemontite schist,Western Otago,New Zealand

Summary Ardennite of complex composition: (Mn²⁺ _3.488Ca_0.509Ba_0.002)₌₄(Mg_0.916916 Fe³⁺ _0.165 Mn³⁺ _0.099Cu_0.033Ni_0.009Zn_0.006 Ti_0.008Al_4.764)₌₆(As⁵⁺ _0.823V⁵⁺ _0.022P_0.005B_0.069Al_0.042Si_5.039)₌₆O_21.81(OH)_6.17 occurs in crack-seal quartz veins in quartz-albite-piemontite-spessartine-phengitehematite-chlorite-rutile-tourmaline ± calcite schist of the Haast Schist Group near Arrow Junction, western Otago, New Zealand. The Mn²⁺/Mn³⁺-ratio is sensitive to calculations and to accuracy of analyses. Boron is detected in ardennite for the first time. Other properties include = 1.734(3), = 1.735(3), = 1.751(3), 2V_Z = 30(2)°;a = 8.721(1),b = 5.816(1),c = 18.545(3) Å,V = 940.7(2) ų. Associated mineral phases are spessartine, hematite, piemontite containing 0.7% SrO and 0.06% PbO, and phengite. Later-stage vein minerals comprise chlorite, albite, and manganoan calcite which were deposited under less highly oxidizing conditions. Digenite with minor intergrown covellite occurs in small amount with manganoan calcite and quartz in a cross-cutting late-stage veina chalcopyrite and native copper occur in other late-stage veins. Arsenic and other components of the ardennite and associated minerals are derived from highly oxidized ferromanganese oxide- and hydroxide-bearing siliceous pelagic sediments that formed the protolith for the piemontite schist. The veins formed at a relatively early stage after metamorphism peaked in the chlorite zone of the greenschist facies under conditions that have been estimated at about 4.5 kbar, 390 °C.

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Vorkommen von Ardennit in Quarzgängen aus Piemontit-Schiefern, West-Otago, Neuseeland

Zusammenfassung Ardennit mit der Zusammensetzung (Mn²⁺ _3.488Ca_0.509Ba_0.002)₌₄(Mg_0.916Fe³⁺ _0.165Mn³⁺ _0.099Cu_0.033Ni_0.009Zn_0.006 Ti_0.008Al_4.764)₌₆(As⁵⁺ _0.823V⁵⁺ _0.022P_0.005B_0.069Al_0.042Si_5.039)₌₆O_21.81(OH)_6.17 tritt in Crack-seal-Quarzgängen in Quarz-Albit-Piemontit-Spessartin-Phengit-Hämatit-Chlorit-Rutil-Turmalin ± Calcit-Schiefern der Haast Schiefer-Gruppe nahe der Arrow Junction, West-Otago, Neuseeland, auf. Die Proportionen von Mn²⁺/Mn³⁺ hängen von der Kalkulation und der Genauigkeit der Analyse ab. Bor wird zum ersten Mal im Ardennit bestimmt. Andere Eigenschaften sind: = 1.734(3), = 1.735(3), = 1.751(3), 2Vz = 30(2)°; a = 8.721(1), b = 5.816(1), c = 18.545(3) Å, V = 940.7(2) Å3. Assoziierte Mineralphasen sind Spessartin, Hämatit, Piemontit, der 0.7% SrO und 0.06% PbO enthält und Phengit. Spät gebildete Gangmineralien, wie Chlorit, Albit und Mn-Calcit, sind unter geringer oxidierenden Bedingungen entstanden. Digenit mit etwas Covellin tritt in kleinen Mengen zusammen mit Mn-Calcit und Quartz in einem querschlägigen Gang auf, Chalcopyrit und gediegenes Kupfer kommen in anderen späten Gängen vor. Arsen und andere Komponenten des Ardennites and der assoziierten Minerale können von hochoxidierten, Fe-Mn-Oxid- und Hydroxyd-führenden, Sireichen, pelagischen Sedimenten hergeleitet werden, die das Ausgangsgestein für den Piemontit darstellen. Die Gänge wurden in einem relativ frühen Stadium, nach dem Metamorphosehöhepunkt, innerhalb der Chloritzone der Grünschiefer-Fazies, unter ungefähr 4.5 kbar und 390°C, gebildet.

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With 4 Figures     

Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not.     

Impact of Submesoscale Eddies on the Transport of Suspended Matter in the Coastal Zone of Crimea Based on Drone,Satellite, and In Situ Measurement Data

Oceanology - High-resolution measurements by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), satellite and in-situ data are used to study the optical structure of coastal submesoscale eddies and their influence...     

The possible impacts on wheat production of a recurrence of the 1930s drought in the U.S. Great Plains

What would be the impacts on wheat production if the U.S. Great Plains were to suffer another severe, prolonged drought? The 1930s drought is chosen as a worst-case scenario, and two sets of crop-yield regression models are employed to simulate yields using actual 1932–40 weather values and assuming constant 1975 technology. The results are first compared to normal or expected yields in each of 53 crop reporting districts in order to determine the range and spatial variation in yield departures over the nine-year period. Assuming a 1976 crop area, wheat production levels are then calculated and aggregated to give Plains-wide estimates for each year. It is found that the sequence of 1930s weather results in continuous, prolonged declines in expected production. Plains-wide yields are below normal (on average about 9–14%) for nine consecutive years. In the poorest years, the impacts are areally widespread with about nine-tenths of the Plains experiencing yield declines. The spatial variation in yields is substantial, however, ranging from over 100% to below 40% of expected even in the poorest years. In the worst year (1936), simulated production is sharply reduced by about -25%, or 9.6 million metric tonnes. The cumulative deficit over the nine-year period is roughly equivalent to a full year's wheat production. The major conclusion is that a return of a 1930s-type drought would still inflict widespread, heavy damage on wheat production in the Great Plains.     

Meanders in the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone and their impact on phytoplankton

The Antarctic Polar Front is a complex set of meandering jets, which appear to support enhanced primary productivity. The US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study conducted a series of survey and process studies in part to study the processes regulating primary productivity in this high nutrient, low chlorophyll region. We deployed a set of surface velocity drifters, some of which were equipped with bio-optical sensors, to study the temporal and spatial scales of biological and physical processes in the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone. There were two primary sets of deployments: November 1997 before the spring bloom and January 1998 after the spring bloom. The November deployment revealed a strong spring bloom that lasted about 10 days. In late spring, when incoming solar radiation began to increase, the vertical motions associated with the meanders strongly affected the accumulation of phytoplankton biomass, primarily through their impact on light availability. Weaker meandering was observed in the January deployment, and chlorophyll values remained relatively constant. As the bloom began to decay, it appears that nutrient availability became more important in regulating phytoplankton photosynthesis. Some of the drifters in the November deployment were deployed in coherent clusters, thus allowing us to calculate vertical velocities associated with the meanders. Estimates of fluorescence/chlorophyll suggest that areas of upwelling and downwelling alternately decrease and increase photosynthetic stress, perhaps as a result of changes in the availability of iron or light during the formation of the bloom.     

On the visible shape of the cold plasma jets in the solar chromosphere

Lines of equal optical thickness are calculated for cold plasma jets propagating in the simplest magnetic configuration. The paraxial approximation is used in the case of jets directed along the axis of a magnetic dipole. The results explain the apparently convergent as well as divergent shapes of the jets in a divergent magnetic configuration.     

Tridiurnal variations in cosmic-ray intensity

The tridiurnal wave in cosmic-ray intensity expected from a free space anisotropy is theoretically calculated for different cosmic-ray stations which are characterized by different shapes of asymptotic cones of acceptance. The amplitude A and the time of maximum Tmax are given for latitude dependence of the form cosⁿ λ and rigidity dependence of the form $\text{R}{}^{\mathrm{\beta }}\text{exp (?(R?}\text{1}\text{R}{}_0\text{))}$, where λ and R are the latitude and rigidity respectively and n, β, R₀ are constants. The values of A and Tmax, are calculated for different values of n, β and R₀ for each station. The dependence of A and Tmax on the anisotropy parameters is studied for the proper selection of cosmic-ray stations whose data may be used in determining these parameters.Available experimental data were used to find the observed amplitudes of the tridiurnal variations at five stations using power spectrum analysis with hanning applied on the averaged trains. Minimum variance analysis of the theoretical and experimental amplitudes showed that β has a value between 1 and 2, R₀ greater than 100 GV and n smaller than 3.     

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling at an air weapons range

Numerical modelling was done at the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range, Canada, to test whether the dissolved RDX and nitrate detected in groundwater come from the same sources, and to predict whether contamination poses a threat to the surface water receptors near the site. Military live fire training activities may indeed pose a risk of contamination to groundwater resources, however field investigations on military bases are quite recent, and little information is available on the long-term behaviour of munition residues related contaminants. Very limited information was available about the contaminant source zones, which were assigned based on our knowledge of current training activities. The RDX plume was well represented with the model, but the heterogeneous distribution of nitrate concentrations was more difficult to reproduce. It was nonetheless determined that both contaminants originate from the same areas. According to the model, both contaminants should reach the nearby river, but concentrations in the river should remain very low if the source zone concentration does not change. Finally, the model allowed the recommendation of a new location for the main bombing target, which would offer added protection to the river and the lake into which it flows.