Input-output models

Summary Elementary mass balance and export models are explored in relation to eutrophication as caused by phosphorus and nitrogen. New criteria for phosphorus loading are given in relation to the ratio ‘mean depth-water fill-in-time’ . The results suggest that lakes having long water renewal times are much more sensitive to phosphorus loading than would appear from mean depth only. Further, from comparison of the relative residence time of nitrogen and phosphorus, it is deduced that—with increasing eutrophication—the nitrogen metabolism is speeded up beyond the point of simple proportionality which would explain the transition from phosphorus to nitrogen limitation in highly eutrophied lakes. It is further suggested that the principles derived from eutrophication in regard to the metabolism of phosphorus and nitrogen in lakes are applicable also to other environmental compartments and stress factors.

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Zusammenfassung Elementare Massenbilanzen und Exportmodelle werden bezüglich ihrer Bedeutung für die Eutrophierung von Seen mit Phosphor und Stickstoff untersucht. Als neues Kriterium für die Phosphorbelastung wird das Verh?ltnis ?mittlere Wassertiefe-Zeit der Wassererneuerung? eingeführt. Die Beobachtungen lassen vermuten, dass Seen mit langen Wassererneuerungsperioden viel empfindlicher auf die Phosphorbelastung ansprechen, als aus ihrer mittleren Tiefe geschlossen werden k?nnte. Aus dem Vergleich der mittleren Aufenthaltszeiten von Stickstoff und Phosphor ergibt sich, dass mit zunehmender Eutrophie der Stickstoffumsatz weit st?rker beschleunigt wird, als der einfachen Proportionalit?t zu seiner Konzentrationszunahme entsprechen würde. Dies erkl?rt die Verschiebung von Phosphor zu Stickstoff als limitierendem Faktor in hocheutrophierten Seen. Es wird vermutet, dass die Prinzipien, welche bezüglich der Eutrophierung aus dem Umsatz von Phosphor und Stickstoff in Seen abgeleitet werden, auch für andere Lebensr?ume und andere Belastungsfaktoren angewendet werden k?nnen.

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Résumé Un équilibre massive élémentaire et des modèles de sortie ont été explorés en relation avec l’eutrophisation provoquée par le phosphore et l’azote. De nouveaux critères ont été décrits en relation avec le taux ?profondeur moyenne?—durée de remplissage d’eau? . Les résultats suggèrent que les lacs dont la durée de renouvellement de l’eau est longue, sont beaucoup plus sensibles aux charges de phosphore, que ne laisserait appara?tre le critère seul de la profondeur moyenne. De plus, en comparant les durées relatives de séjour de l’azote et du phosphore, on déduit que—avec la progression de l’eutrophisation—le métabolisme de l’azote est accéléré au delà du point de simple proportionalité qui expliquerait la transition du phosphore à l’azote en tant que nutriment limitant dans des lacs fortement eutrophes. En outre, il est suggéré que les principes, dérivant de l’eutrophisation des lacs en relation avec le métabolisme du phosphore et de l’azote, sont également applicables à d’autres compartiments et facteurs de containte de l’environnement.

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Paper given at the Conference on Chemical-Ecological Considerations for Defining the Goals of Water Pollution Control, Kastanienbaum, Switzerland, April 19–21, 1972.     

Water quality modeling and sensitivity analysis using Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) in the Shenandoah River watershed

This study used the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) to simulate nutrients, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chlorophyll-a dynamics in the Shenandoah River basin and performed an uncertainty analysis to examine the complexity of these variables in water quality estimation and their influence on the Shenandoah River. Significant progress has been made; however, nutrient loads emitted into the Shenandoah River from nonpoint sources remain high. Modeling of three points on the Shenandoah River in Virginia and West Virginia provides an ideal case study since the river is classified by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality as being impaired. The results of a sensitivity test show that model error decreases with increasing model complexity and sensitivity. The model predicted DO values that tended to be close to the measured data, while total nitrogen and phosphorus tended to be overemphasized. Our results examine the importance of temperature, stream flow, and velocity in influencing water quality between seasons and levels on the different sections of the watershed.     

Transfer of Taiwanese ideas and technology to The Gambia, West Africa: a viable approach to rural development?

The development of Taiwan's agricultural sector contributed significantly to the country's transformation from virtual poverty after World War II to a modern industrial nation. Success resulted from the use of appropriate technologies, developed through an exceptionally close working relationship between government, research and development institutions, extension services and farmers in Taiwan. As part of their overseas development aid programme, the Republic of China on Taiwan has established Technical Missions in those developing countries where it receives political recognition. Among these is The Gambia, West Africa, where one focus of Taiwan's current Technical Mission is the development of women's market gardens. Although the gardens have proved successful, there is doubt as to whether their achievements will be sustained once Taiwan's Technical Mission in The Gambia has ended. Field research in Taiwan and in The Gambia, based largely on participatory techniques, has revealed that the low-tech methods introduced from Taiwan are appropriate for the Gambian environment. However, much depends on whether women participating in the schemes can commit sufficient time and energy to the gardens, as at present this is a limiting factor. The potential of the gardens may also be constrained by a lack of appropriate institutional infrastructure, particularly the scope for profitable disposal of garden produce. A major conclusion of the article is that successful transfer of appropriate technology to The Gambia is likely to be impeded by poorly developed coordination between groups that proved to be key 'players' in the development of agriculture in Taiwan: government, research and development institutions, extension services and producers.     

A new strategy for global climate protection

This essay proposes an innovative institutional strategy for global climate protection, quite distinct from but ultimately complementary to the UNFCCC climate treaty negotiations. Our “building block” strategy relies on a variety of smaller-scale transnational cooperative arrangements, involving not only states, but also subnational jurisdictions, firms, and civil society organizations, to undertake activities whose primary goal is not climate mitigation but which will achieve greenhouse gas reductions as a byproduct. This strategy avoids the problems inherent in developing an enforceable, comprehensive treaty regime by mobilizing other incentives—including economic self-interest, energy security, cleaner air, and furtherance of international development— to motivate a range of actors to cooperate on actions that will also produce climate benefits. The strategy uses three specific models of regime formation (club, linkage, and dominant actor models) which emerge from economics, international relations, and organizational behavior, to develop a variety of transnational regimes that are generally self-enforcing and sustainable, avoiding the free rider and compliance problems endemic in collective action to provide public goods. These regimes will contribute to global climate action not only by achieving emissions reductions in the short term, but also by creating global webs of cooperation and trust, and by linking the building block regimes to the UNFCCC system through greenhouse gas monitoring and reporting systems. We argue that the building blocks regimes would thereby help secure eventual agreement on a comprehensive climate treaty.     

Stability functions based upon shear functions

The stability functions for momentum and heat under a Richardson number formulation are derived from the nondimensional shear functions under a Monin-Obukhov formulation. The Prandtl number is also derived as a function of the Richardson number. Previously, this has been done only in a limited sense. Because the Richardson number formulation is expressed in closed form, iterative techniques are no longer needed in numerical models that use Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. This time-saving approach is made possible by deriving expressions for the friction velocity and temperature in terms of the Richardson-number-dependent stability functions. In addition, the Richardson number approximation in the lowest layer is made to depend explicitly upon the surface roughness.     

The 1786 earthquake-triggered landslide dam and subsequent dam-break flood on the Dadu River, southwestern China — Reply

A short reply to discussion by Chanson.