Evaluating the sensitivity of wetlands to climate change with remote sensing techniques

Wetlands are valuable ecosystems that provide many valuable services, yet many of these important ecosystems are at risk because of current trends in climate change. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in the upper‐midwest of the United States and south‐central Canada, characterized by glacially sculpted landscapes and abundant wetlands, is one such vulnerable region. According to regional/global climate model predictions, drought occurrence will increase in the PPR region through the 21st century and thus will probably cause the amount of water in wetlands to decline. Water surface area (WSA) of Kidder County, ND, from 1984–2011 was measured by classifying TM/ETM+(Landsat Thematic Mapper / Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) images through the modified normalized difference water index. We then developed a linear model based on the WSA of these wetlands and historical climate data and used this to determine the wetland sensitivity to climate change and predict future wetlands WSA in the PPR. Our model based on Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) of the current year (PDSI_{t ? 0}) and of the previous two years (PDSI_{t ? 2}) can explain 79% of the annual wetland WSA variance, suggesting a high sensitivity of wetlands to drought/climate change. We also predicted the PPR wetlands WSA in the 21st century under A1B scenario (a mid‐carbon emission scenario) using simulated PDSI based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 22‐model ensemble climate. According to our prediction, the WSA of the PPR wetlands will decrease to less than half of the baseline WSA (defined as the mean wetlands WSA of the 2000s) by the mid of the 21st century, and to less than one‐third by the 2080s, and will then slightly increase in the 2090s. This considerable future wetland loss caused only by climate change provides important implication to future wetland management and climate adaptation policy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interdiffusion of NaSi—CaAl in peristerite

The ‘average’ interdiffusion coefficient ( \(\bar D\) ) for NaSi—CaAl exchange in plagioclase for the interval from An₀ to An₂₆ was estimated from experimentally determined homogenization times for peristerite exsolution lamellae. The average spacing between adjacent (unlike) lamellae is 554±77 Å. Dry heating in air at 1,100°C for 98 days produced no change in the exsolution microstructure; thus \(\bar D\) (dry)<10^?17 cm²/s. This limit is consistent with the recently reported ‘average’ \(\bar D\) (dry) values for the Huttenlocher interval (An_70–90) at this temperature. At 1.5 GPa with about 0.2 weight percent water added the ‘average’ diffusion coefficient from 1,100°C to 900°C is given by: \(\bar D\) (wet)=18 _?15 ⁺¹⁰⁸ (cm²/s) exp (?97±5 (kcal/mol)/RT), where R is the gas constant, and T is °K. This \(\bar D\) (wet) at 1,100°C is more than three orders of magnitude greater than \(\bar D\) (dry) for Na- and Ca-rich plagioclases.     

Is 1220 Crocus a precessing,binary asteroid?

Photoelectric observations of asteroid 1220 Crocus (an Eos family member) show evidence for two distinct periods in its light variation: 30.7 days and 7.90 hr. The lightcurve amplitudes are 0.87 and 0.15 mag, respectively. The shorter period variation appears to be modulated over the longer period. Two periods are possible for a rigid body only if it is in a state of precession. The observations are shown to be compatible with a body in a forced precession state. This result leads us to hypothesize the existence of a satellite of Crocus as the source of the external torque. Calculations are presented which show that there are in fact dynamically possible “binary asteroid” solutions consistent with the observations. More photoelectric and perhaps direct (space telescope) observations are needed to resolve the true nature of this asteroid.     

The energy and energy flux of planetary waves in an ocean of variable depth

Abstract

In a recent paper, Buchwald (1972a) has shown that besides the kinetic energy and gravitational potential energy usually associated with planetary waves in an ocean of uniform depth it is useful to define also a “spin energy”, associated with the rotation.

The present paper is basically an extension of Buchwald's result to a uniformly rotating β-plane ocean of variable depth. As in the previous work, energy conservation equations are derived and the separate energies shown to be independently conserved over the total volume of the ocean. The time-averaged energies are further shown to be propagated in the direction of the group velocity and to satisfy the equipartition rule.

Unlike Buchwald, however, we need not consider the boundary conditions in order to achieve these results. Furthermore, the use of a more realistic ocean configuration admits the possibility of a multiply connected region in the present of mean currents.

Finally, there is a physical explanation for the appearance of a spin energy in a rotating system.     

Puu Hou littoral cones,Hawaii

The Puu Hou littoral cones, on the south shoreline of Hawaii, were built in 5 days by steam explosions from two narrow lava streams of the 1868 Mauna Loa lava flows as they entered the sea. Explosions occurred in localized areas of both streams, from foci that migrated seaward as the flow built jetties into the sea. Debris, radially ejected from the migrating explosion centers, fell partly on land and partly at sea, and thus formed crescent shaped rims (half-cones) on land which overlap one another. The half-cones are breached through their centers by debris-free basalt corridors, because fragments that fell onto the flowing lava were carried seaward beyond the accumulating rims.Gray and red clastic layers are draped smoothly over the rim areas; thus the rims resemble anticlinal arches in cross section. Some beds can be traced from clastic layers on the ridges into irregular agglomeratic masses interbedded with basalt units of the source lava near the foci. The lower layers in the clastic sequence contain less olivine than those high in the sequence, which corresponds in time to an increasing olivine content during the 5 day flow, as recognized in the source lava.Fragments are angular to subangular blocks, lapilli and ash of crystalline basalt mixed with more abundant quickly chilled cognate material of similar sizes. The ash is mostly sideromelane in angular particles and rounded droplets (5–95%), tachylite (2–70%), crystalline basalt (1–40%), and broken olivine phenocrysts (1–9%). In some samples, the sideromelane droplets are partly oxidized on their surfaces, and internally are dark brown (R. I.=1.610–1.616), possibly due to dehydration and/or oxidation during the explosions. Samples with externally oxidized glass also contain etched olivine crystals and some iddingsite. Unaltered sideromelane droplets are pale yellowish-brown with R. I.=1.592–1.600, and are associated with unaltered, angular to subangular olivine crystals. The refractive index of the unaltered sideromelane droplets is the same as sideromelane crusts of pahoehoe on the lava flow farther inland, suggesting that the droplets are not hydrated or highly oxidized. None of the sideromelane fragments are palagonitized, presumably because little or no hydration has taken place since 1868.

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Zusammenfassung Die littoralen Spratzkegel von Puu Hou an der Südküste von Hawaii sind innerhalb von 5 Tagen durch Dampfexplosionen in zwei naheliegenden Lavaströmen des Mauna Loa-Ausbruches im Jahre 1868 entstanden, als diese das Meer erreichten. Die Explosionen traten in eng begrenzten Bereichen beider Ströme auf; die Explosionsherde wanderten mit den Lavaströmen seewärts, wobei sich Landzungen in den Ozean bauten. Aus den seewärts wandernden Explosionsherden wurden Fragmente ausgeworfen, die teilweise auf das Land und in den Ozean fielen; es formten sich dabei halbkreisartige Ränder (Halbkegel), die sich am Land überlappen. Die Halbkegel sind in der Mitte von Basaltkorridoren durchbrochen, die frei von Explosionsfragmenten sind, da diese in die strömende Lava fielen und seewärts abtransportiert wurden.Graue und rote pyro-klastische Sedimentlagen legen sich über die Randzonen der Halbkegel, so daß sie im Querschnitt wie Antiklinalstrukturen aussehen. Einige dieser Schichten können mit klastischen Lagen vom randlichen Saum bis zu irregulären Agglomeratmassen verfolgt werden, die zwischen die Basalte nahe der Explosionsherde eingeschaltet sind. Die tieferen Lagen der klastischen Sedimente enthalten weniger Olivin als die höher liegenden. Dieses entspricht einem sich zeitlich vermehrenden Olivingehalt während der fünftägigen Ausbruchszeit, wie er auch in der Originallava erkannt werden kann.Die Bruchstücke bestehen aus angularen bis subangularen Blöcken, Lapilli und Kristallaschen, die mit rasch erkalteten Lavafetzen ähnlicher Korngröße vermischt sind. Die Asche enthält hauptsächlich Sideromelan in eckigen Bruchstücken und gefundeten Tröpfchen (5–95%), Tachylyt (2–70%), Kristallbasalt (1–40%) und zerbrochene Olivineinsprenglinge (1-9%).In einigen Proben sind die Sideromelantröpfchen teilweise auf ihren Oberflächen oxydiert und im Inneren möglicherweise durch Dehydrierung und/oder Oxydation während der Explosionen dunkelbraun gefärbt (R. I.=1.610-1.616).Proben mit äußerlich oxydiertem Glas enthalten auch angeätzte Olivinkristalle und einigen Iddingsit. Unveränderte Sideromelantröpfchen sind blaß gelblichbraun gefärbt (R. I.=1.592–1.600) und mit unveränderten, eckigen bis subangolaren Olivinkristallen vergesellschaftet. Der Brechungsindex der unveränderten Sideromelantröpfchen ist derselbe wie von Sideromelankrusten auf den Lavaströmen Pahoehoes. Daraus kann gefolgert werden, daß die Tröpfchen nicht hydratisiert oder stark oxydiert sind. Die Sideromelanbruchstücke enthalten keinen Palagonit, weil seit 1868 wahrscheinlich wenig oder gar keine Hydratisierung mehr stattgefunden hat.

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Résumé Les cônes littoraux Puu Hou, sur la côte sud d'Hawai' ont été créés en cinq jours par les explosions de vapeur de deux branches étroites de la coulée de lave de Mauna Loa en 1868 lorsqu'elle entrait en contact avec la mer. Les explosions se sont produites dans des points localisés des deux branches de la coulée à partir du centre avançant en direction de la mer à mesure que la lave y construisait des jetées. Les débris projetés à la ronde depuis les centres d'explosion mobiles tombèrement en partie sur terre et en partie en mer formant ainsi sur le sol des bourrelets en forme de croissants (demi-cônes) qui s'entrecoupent. Les demi-cônes sont traversés dans leur centre par des couloirs de basalte dépourvus de débris, les fragments tombés dans la coulée de lave ayant été entraînés vers la mer au delà des bourrelets d'accumulation.Les couches élastiques grises et rouges sont drapées d'une manière égale au-dessus de la zone des bourrelets. Elle ressemble ainsi à des arches anticlinales en coupe. Certains lits peuvent être retracés à partir des couches élastiques sur les crêtes jusqu'à des masses agglomérées irrégulières mélangées à des éléments de basalte de la lave mère. Les couches inférieures de la séquence élastique contiennent moins d'olivine que les couches supérieures ce qui correspond à un accroissement de la proportion d'olivine pendant les 5 jours ue coulée, comme le lit de lave indique.Les fragments sont des blocs angulaires à sous-angulaires, des lapilli et de la cendre de basalte cristallin, mêlés à des matériaux apparentés de taille semblable, plus abondants et rapidement refroidis. La cendre est composée principalement de sidéromélane en particules anguleuses ou en gouttelettes rondes (5–95%), de tachylite (2–70%), de basalte cristallin (1–40%) et d'olivine phénocristale brisée (1–9%). Dans quelques échantillons, les gouttelettes de sidéromélane sont en partie oxydées à la surface et brun-foncé à l'intérieur (R. I.=1.610–1.616), peut-être par suite de déshydratation e/ou oxydation pendant l'explosion. Les échantillons comportant extérieurement du verre oxydé contiennent des cristaux d'olivine attaqués et une certaine proportion d'iddingsite. Les gouttelettes de sidéromélane intactes, sont d'un jaune-brun pâle, R. I.=1.592-1.600, et sont associées à des cristaux d'olivine non-attaquées, angulaires à sous-angulaires. L'indice de réfraction des gouttelettes intactes de sidéromélane est le même que celui de la croûte de sidéromélane du pahoehoe dans la coulée de lave plus à l'intérieur de l'île, suggérant que les gouttelettes ne sont pas hydratées ou très oxydées. Aucun des fragments de sidéromélane n'est palagonisé, sans doute parce que depuis 1868 il n'y a eu que peu ou pas d'hydratation.

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, 1868 Puu Hou . Ha , .

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Dedicated to Professor Dr. A.Rittmann on the occasion of his 75. birthday     

Covariance structure and morphometric analysis—A contribution to paleogenetics

A method of analysis of covariance structure proposed by A. P. Dempster complements, in some respects, a recently suggested procedure by the author. The method is based on the comparison of ratios of generalized statistical distances and distancelike quantities. An analysis of septivariate data on the foraminiferTextilina mexicana (Cushman) shows general differences in covariance structure in which the sample rest linear discriminators also differ. This difference in covariance structure is thought to be genetic in origin. Two species of Middle Devonian brachiopods,Martinia inflata (Schnur) andUncites gryphus von Schlotheim), also show differences in covariance structure—the former slightly, the latter strongly. This is further analyzed forUncites by the author's methods and good agreement between the two approaches obtained.     

Nonmodal Growth on a Sphere at Various Horizontal Scales

Nonmodal growth (NG) and unstable normal mode growth are considered in spherical geometry. Two groups of initial conditions (IC) are studied: "connected" IC (common in Cartesian studies) and "separated" IC (based on observed conditions prior to cyclogenesis). Time series of growth rates are emphasized in conjunction with eigenmode projections. Projections show that early on normal mode growth was much stronger for connected IC and that NG caused negative growth early on of some variables for separated IC. Projections explain why amplitude, kinetic energy (KE), and potential vorticity have more NG than available potential energy (APE). Though varying between ICs and with initial phase shift, NG increases with wavenumber. For middle wavelengths, NG is significant and positive using connected IC but negative or small using separated IC. Total energy and KE growth rates of short waves are very similar during the first 2 days for both ICs. Amplitude time series closely follow KE in all cases studied. APE has less overlap than does KE between the main modes present, so less NG occurs for APE than for KE. In separated IC cases, APE growth rates evolve consistent with emergence of an unstable normal mode and little NG.