Comparison of polynomial chaos and Gaussian process surrogates for uncertainty quantification and correlation estimation of spatially distributed open-channel steady flows

Data assimilation is widely used to improve flood forecasting capability, especially through parameter inference requiring statistical information on the uncertain input parameters (upstream discharge, friction coefficient) as well as on the variability of the water level and its sensitivity with respect to the inputs. For particle filter or ensemble Kalman filter, stochastically estimating probability density function and covariance matrices from a Monte Carlo random sampling requires a large ensemble of model evaluations, limiting their use in real-time application. To tackle this issue, fast surrogate models based on polynomial chaos and Gaussian process can be used to represent the spatially distributed water level in place of solving the shallow water equations. This study investigates the use of these surrogates to estimate probability density functions and covariance matrices at a reduced computational cost and without the loss of accuracy, in the perspective of ensemble-based data assimilation. This study focuses on 1-D steady state flow simulated with MASCARET over the Garonne River (South-West France). Results show that both surrogates feature similar performance to the Monte-Carlo random sampling, but for a much smaller computational budget; a few MASCARET simulations (on the order of 10–100) are sufficient to accurately retrieve covariance matrices and probability density functions all along the river, even where the flow dynamic is more complex due to heterogeneous bathymetry. This paves the way for the design of surrogate strategies suitable for representing unsteady open-channel flows in data assimilation.     

The 0.1–100 keV spectrum and variability of Mrk 421 in a high state

The results of a BeppoSAX target of opportunity (TOO) observation of the BL Lac object Mrk 421 during a high-intensity state are reported and compared with monitoring X-ray data collected with the BeppoSAX Wide Field Cameras (WFC) and the RXTE All Sky Monitor (ASM). The 0.1–100 keV spectrum of Mrk 421 shows continuous convex curvature that can be interpreted as the high-energy end of the synchrotron emission. The source shows significant short-term temporal and spectral variability, which can be interpreted in terms of synchrotron cooling. The comparison of our results with those of previous observations when the source was a factor 3–5 fainter shows evidence for strong spectral variability, with the maximum of the synchrotron power shifting to higher energy during high states. This behaviour suggests an increase in the number of energetic electrons during high states.     

Slicks detection on the sea surface based upon polarimetric SAR data

This letter proposes a generalized-likelihood ratio test-based edge detector to be fed by possibly polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. It can be used to detect dark spots on the sea surface and, hence, as the first stage of a system for identification and monitoring of oil spills. The proposed constant false alarm rate (CFAR) detector does not require secondary data (namely pixels from a slick-free area); remarkably, a preliminary performance assessment, carried out by resorting to real SAR recordings, shows that it guarantees detection capabilities comparable to those of previously proposed polarimetric CFAR detectors (which though make use of secondary data). The preliminary performance assessment also seems to indicate that processing polarimetric data does not ensure improved detection capabilities.     

Snapper (Chrysophrys auratus): a review of life history and key vulnerabilities in New Zealand

Snapper (Chrysophrys auratus) is an important coastal fish species in New Zealand for a variety of reasons, but the large amount of research conducted on snapper has not been reviewed. Here, we review life history information and potential threats for snapper in New Zealand. We present information on snapper life history, defining stages (eggs and larvae, juvenile and adult), and assess potential threats and knowledge gaps. Overall we identify six key points: 1. post-settlement snapper are highly associated with certain estuarine habitats that are under threat from land-based stressors. This may serve as a bottleneck for snapper populations; 2. the largest knowledge gaps relate to the eggs and larvae. Additional knowledge may help to anticipate the effects of climate change, which will likely have the greatest influence on these early life stages; 3. ocean acidification, from land-based sources and from climate change, may be an important threat to larval snapper; 4. a greater understanding of population connectivity would improve certainty around the sustainability of fishery exploitation; 5. the collateral effects of fishing are likely to be relevant to fishery productivity, ecosystem integrity and enduser value; 6. our understanding of the interrelationships between snapper and other ecosystem components is still deficient.     

First Mass-resolved Measurement of High-Energy Cosmic-Ray Antiprotons

We report new results for the cosmic-ray antiproton-to-proton ratio from 3 to 50 GeV at the top of the atmosphere. These results represent the first measurements, on an event-by-event basis, of mass-resolved antiprotons above 18 GeV. The results were obtained with the NMSU-WIZARD/CAPRICE98 balloon-borne magnet spectrometer equipped with a gas-RICH (Ring-Imaging Cerenkov) counter and a silicon-tungsten imaging calorimeter. The RICH detector was the first ever flown that is capable of identifying charge-one particles at energies above 5 GeV. The spectrometer was flown on 1998 May 28-29 from Fort Sumner, New Mexico. The measured p&d1;/p ratio is in agreement with a pure secondary interstellar production.     

A mixed solar core, solar neutrinos and helioseismology

We consider a wide class of solar models with mixed core. Most of these models can be excluded as the sound speed profile that they predict is in sharp disagreement with helioseismic constraints. All the remaining models predict ⁸B and/or ⁷Be neutrino fluxes of at least as large as those of SSMs. In conclusion, helioseismology shows that a mixed solar core cannot account for the neutrino deficit implied by the current solar neutrino experiments.     

Methane-derived carbonates and chemosymbiotic communities of Piedmont (Miocene,northern Italy): An update

Stable carbon isotope values of authigenic carbonate rocks in the Miocene terrigenous sediments of Piedmont indicate a methane-related origin. Some of these methane-derived carbonates (Lucina limestone) are characterized by the presence of abundant lucinid remains. Carbonate dissolution/precipitation and development of lucinid communities were related to bacterial methane oxidation, both aerobic and anaerobic. Anaerobic oxidation led to carbonate precipitation and production of sulfide, which sustained lucinid communities through chemosynthetic symbiotic bacteria. Aerobic oxidation of methane likely resulted in dissolution of carbonate skeletal grains. Several phases of carbonate precipitation, characterized by slightly different isotopic compositions, are recognizable in the limestones.     

Differentiations of geographic distribution and subsistence strategies between Tibetan and other major ethnic groups are determined by the physical environment in Hehuang Valley

The people of the Tibetan Plateau have received extensive attention from scholars because of their unique adaptability to the low temperature and anoxic environments. However, the Tibetan communities and their habitats in the low-altitude regions of the plateau have rarely been studied in a scientific manner. Based on the extraction of geographic information of 197 towns in the Hehuang Valley and on variance analysis, this study examines the habitats and subsistence strategies of the Tibetans and other major ethnic groups in the low-latitude region of the Tibetan Plateau. Our statistical results show that the annual average temperature of Tibetan habitats in the Hehuang Valley is relatively high. The relatively warm environment of the valley allows the Tibetans in that area to cultivate wheat and barley and raise cattle and sheep—a subsistence strategy significantly different from that of other Tibetans in the high-altitude regions in the Tibetan Plateau. In addition, the Tibetan communities in the Hehuang Valley include similar agri-pastoral ethnic groups (including Hui and Salar), both of which adopt similar subsistence strategies. The agricultural ethnic groups (Han and Tu) live in a relatively cool and humid environment facilitating agricultural production, while the agri-pastoral ethnic groups (Tibetan, Hui, and Salar) inhabit relatively warm and arid environment in the valley. Due to the lack of agricultural activities, agri-pastoral groups must also engage in animal husbandry to supplement their diet. In the Ando Tibetan region, the subsistence strategies of the ethnic groups are closely related to their physical environment.Those ethnic groups communicate among themselves, integrate, and influence each other, resulting in a diversified culture. This study proves that the habitat variation at a regional scale corresponds significantly to the variation of subsistence strategies. Our findings may further refine knowledge about the human-environmental relationships of Tibetans and lead future research towards using quantitative methods to analyse the intersection of physical environment and ethnic groups' distribution.     

Palaeoenvironmental control on sediment composition and provenance in the late Quaternary deltaic successions: a case study from the Po delta area (Northern Italy)

Accumulation of continental, deltaic and shallow‐marine sediments in the Po River coastal plain preserves a record of the Late Quaternary sea‐level changes and shoreline migrations. The palaeoenvironmental evolution of this area and the changes in composition and provenance of sediments have been investigated through integrated sedimentological, micropalaeontological (mainly foraminifers) and geochemical analyses of core S1, from the southern part of the Po River delta, within a chronological framework supported by radiocarbon dating and correlations with adjacent core sequences. Eleven lithofacies, grouped into five facies associations, and four palaeontological assemblages provide the basis to define the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of this succession consisting, from the base to the top, of: (i) continental sediments accumulated during the Late Pleistocene; (ii) back‐barrier sediments marking the onset of Holocene sea‐level rise; (iii) transgressive sands deposited during the rapid landward migration of a barrier‐lagoon system; (iv) shallow‐marine and prodelta sediments with faunal associations indicating a gradual approach to the Po River mouth; and (v) sub‐recent delta front sands that form a considerable portion of the present coastal plain. Bulk chemical composition of sediments shows remarkable relationships with palaeoenvironments and locally improves facies characterizations. For example, they reveal carbonate leaching that emphasizes the occurrence of palaeosols in continental deposits or record enrichments in loss on ignition, S and Br, diagnostic of organic‐rich layers in back‐shore sediments. Selected geochemical elements (e.g. Mg and Ni) are particularly effective for the recognition of sediment provenances from the three main source areas observed in the subsurface deposits of the Po River coastal plain (e.g. Apenninic rivers, North Adriatic rivers and Po River). An Apenninic provenance is observed in continental and back‐barrier sediments. A North Adriatic provenance characterizes the transgressive sands and the shallow‐marine deposits; a significant Po River provenance is recorded in sediments related to the onset of the prodelta environment, confirmed by foraminiferal assemblages indicating remarkable increase in fluvial influxes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.