Prediction of safety factors for slope stability: comparison of machine learning techniques

Natural Hazards - Because of the disasters associated with slope failure, the analysis and forecasting of slope stability for geotechnical engineers are crucial. In this work, in order to forecast...     

Early Mesozoic sedimentary‒tectonic evolution of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent: Evidence from a provenance study of the Nakhlak Group

In Central Iran, the mixed siliciclastic?carbonate Nakhlak Group of Triassic age is commonly seen to have a Cimmerian affinity, although it shows considerable resemblances with the Triassic Aghdarband Group in far northeastern Iran, east of Kopeh-Dagh area, with Eurasian affinity. The Nakhlak Group is composed of the Alam (Late Olenekian?Anisian), Baqoroq (Late Anisian??Early Ladinian), and Ashin (Ladinian??Early Carnian) formations consisting mainly of volcanoclastic sandstone and shale and fossiliferous limestone. The Baqoroq Formation contains also metamorphic detritus. Sandstone petrofacies reflect the detrital evolution from active volcanism to growing orogen and again active volcanism. Textural and modal analyses of volcanic lithic fragments from the Alam Formation reflect the eruption style and magma composition of a felsic to intermediate syn-sedimentary arc activity. The detrital modes of the Baqoroq Formation sediments suggest a recycled orogenic source followed by arc activity in a remnant fore-arc basin. The sandstone samples from the Ashin Formation demonstrate a continuity of felsic to intermediate arc activity. Major and trace element concentrations of the Nakhlak Group clastic samples support sediment supply from first-cycle material and felsic magmatic arc input. The enrichment in LREE, the negative Eu anomalies, and the flat HREE patterns indicate origination from the old upper continental crust and young arc material. The chemical index of alteration (CIA ～51–70 for sandstone and 64–76 for shale samples) indicates medium degrees of chemical weathering at the source. Petrographical and geochemical evidence together with facies analysis constructed the following depositional conditions for the Nakhlak Group sediments: In the Olenekian, a fore-arc shallow to deep marine depositional basin developed that later was filled by recycled and arc-related detritus and changed into a continental basin in the Anisian. Ladinian extension let to a deepening of the basin. With respect to the similarities between the Nakhlak and Aghdarband (NE Iran) groups and unusual present-day position of the Nakhlak Group with no stratigraphic connection to the surrounding area, the development of first a fore-arc basin and later change into a back-arc depositional basin in close relation with the Aghdarband basin at the southern Eurasian active margin in the Triassic are here proposed. Understanding the basin development recorded in the Nakhlak Group provides constraints on the closure history of Palaeotethys and of the tectonic evolution of early Mesozoic basins at the southern Eurasian margin before the Cimmerian Orogeny.     

Analysis of the climate change effect on wheat production systems and investigate the potential of management strategies

In an emergency, schools are responsible for the safety of students until they can be reunited with their families. This study explored emergencies (i.e. bomb threat, a flood, and an earthquake) in three case study schools in New Zealand. Within each case, a selection of stakeholders (i.e. school leaders, staff, and parents) shared their experiences of responding to emergency events in the school. Lessons from participants’ experiences established factors before, during, and after an emergency that contribute to an effective response. Foremost among those factors was the importance of prior preparation. The study also identified recurring response activities, irrespective of emergency type, which enabled the development of a six-stage model of an effective school-based emergency response. The stages are: (1) Alerts; (2) Safety behaviours; (3) Response actions; (4) Student release/Family reunification; (5) Temporary school closure; and (6) Business as usual. The present study contributes to our understanding of research investigating how schools respond to emergencies and therefore seeks to enhance school safety efforts.     

Identifying regional dust transport pathways: ­application of kinematic trajectory modelling to a trans‐Tasman case

A kinematic trajectory model is used to investigate potential pathways of dust transport from Australia to New Zealand. Historically, these have been assumed to follow rather direct west–east trajectories spanning 2 to 3 days, often resulting in red snow events in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. However, results from the present study which examined the route taken by air parcels originating in southern Australia during dust storms on 24 and 25 May 1994, indicate that trans‐Tasman dust transport trajectories are more diverse than previously thought, and display considerable variation during single events. These more divergent pathways tie in more closely with aeolian dust sedimentation patterns identified by ocean coring in the Tasman Sea, and may account for the deposition of Australian dust on sub‐Antarctic islands located well south of the Australian continent. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental study and numerical simulation of soil water and salt transport under dry drainage conditions

Coal mining has serious impacts on local environment, including damage to the land and soil by subsidence, damage to ground-water systems through the fracturing and subsiding of overlying rocks, contamination of surface waters with acid mine drainage, and pollution of the atmosphere by release of toxic gases. The damage to ground water and its consequent impacts on the regional environment is the core of research of the coal mining from the perspective of environment protection. The present paper focuses on the changes of surface vegetation coverage, the pollutants released from pit coal power plants, and the damages to the ground aquifers induced by mining activities in arid Eastern Junggar coalfield of China. At first, the authors investigated the changes of surface vegetation coverage, since mining began in the 2000s using Landsat data. Results show that the low surface vegetation coverage (grade 1 plus grade 2) in the southern part of the region decreased from 11.62?×?10⁸ m² in 2003 to 9.57?×?10⁸ m² in 2017 (?17.6%), while it increased from 11.58?×?10⁸ m² in 2003 to 12.70?×?10⁸ m² in 2017 (+?9.7%) in the eastern part. The high surface vegetation coverage (grade 3 plus grade 4) in the southern part increased from 1.94?×?10⁸ m² in 2003 to 4.00?×?10⁸ m² in 2017 (+?106.2%), while it decreased from 4.39?×?10⁸ m² in 2003 to 3.26?×?10⁸ m² in 2017 (?25.74%) in the eastern part. The data of annual precipitation during the same period in this area show that the changes of surface vegetation coverage have less relationship with the annual precipitation, which indicates that the mining activities is probably the major factor for that. Second, a statistic of air pollutants generated from pit coal power plants was made based on data of references. Results show that the estimated gaseous pollutant emissions increased as 865.23 tons of smoke particles, 5940.73 tons of SO₂, and 7584.48 tons of NO₂ in 2013, which increased rapidly with 9.73 times the smoke particle, 21.69 times the SO₂, and 9.24 times the NO₂ than that of 2007. And then, the physical and numerical simulation of the damage of mining activities to aquifers was made to show the permeability of the reference points of overlying aquifers varies associated with mining activities. Results show that the porous rock matrix permeability has a negative relationship with fluctuation during mining, while the fracture permeability shows a positive one. Finally, a case investigation in southern area surrounding this coalfield was illustrated. Result shows that the local ground-water level decreased by 16 m difference from the altitude level of?+?774 m in 2003 to?+?758 m in 2013. Data and results from this study presented the already and the potential pollutions and damages to local environment induced by the mining activities in this region.

     

Seismic hazard analysis and local site effect of the 2017 Mw 7.3 Sarpol-e Zahab,Iran, earthquake

Natural Hazards - A strong earthquake occurred on November 12, 2017, in Sarpol-e Zahab city, western Iran, with the moment magnitude ( $$M_{{\text{w}}}$$ ) of 7.3 and a focal depth of...     

Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bushehr province in Iran using ETAS model

Natural Hazards - Aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) has a key role in risk management after a major earthquake. The main goal of the current study is to assess aftershock...     

Coherence between lake ice cover, local climate and teleconnections (Lake Mendota, Wisconsin)

Ice duration has shortened and the ice-off date has become earlier for Lake Mendota from 1905 to 2000 as air temperatures have warmed and snowfall has increased. In addition, the ice record has cyclic components at inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. We examined the frequency domain relations between ice, local climate and the teleconnections, Southern Ocean Oscillation (SOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Northern Pacific Index (NP), through a three-tiered analysis of coherence. The coherence results provide evidence of linear relations between the three levels at inter-annual and inter-decadal frequencies. Of the three local climate variables analyzed, namely temperature, snowfall and snow depth, temperature is the variable that most significantly affects ice duration and ice-off date, at both inter-annual and inter-decadal frequencies. The most significant effect of teleconnections on local climate are the effects of PDO on snowfall and snow depth, and SOI on temperature, at inter-annual frequencies, and the effect of NAO on snowfall at inter-decadal frequencies. The teleconnections that most significantly affect ice-cover duration and ice-off date, particularly at inter-decadal frequencies, are the PDO and the NAO. The influence of PDO on ice-cover appears to be transmitted through temperature, while the influence of the NAO appears to be transmitted through temperature and snowfall. A cascading set of links between teleconnections, local climate, and lake ice explain some, but not all, of the dynamics in these time series.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of daily,seasonal and annual precipitation concentration in Jharkhand state,India

Nowadays, climate change and global warming have led to changes in the distribution of precipitation, which affect on the availability of water resources. Therefore, investigating the temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in the previous period is highly important in the future planning for flood control and local management of water resources. Considering the importance of this issue, in the present study, the precipitation concentration indices have been used for analysing precipitation changes at daily, seasonal, and annual time scales in the period of 1971 to 2011 over the Jharkhand state, India. Also, Modified Mann–Kendall test has used to study the trend of precipitation concentration indices in annual and seasonal time scales. The result shows a highly irregular and non-uniform distribution in the annual scale. For the seasonal scale an irregular and non-uniform distribution has been also observed, although the summer had a better situation than other seasons. For daily scale, none of the stations had a regular concentration and in the northeast and southern parts of the study area, there have been more irregularities. Furthermore, the results of investigating annual precipitation trend showed a combination of increasing and decreasing trend over the study area. The results of this study can be applied to manage water supplies, drainage projects, construct collection structures of urban flood, develop plans to prevent soil erosion, and designing appropriate plans to cope with drought conditions.