Stochastic finite-fault simulation of ground motion from the August 11, 2012, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> 6.4 Ahar earthquake,northwestern Iran

In this study, the 11 August 2012 M _w 6.4 Ahar earthquake is investigated using the ground motion simulation based on the stochastic finite-fault model. The earthquake occurred in northwestern Iran and causing extensive damage in the city of Ahar and surrounding areas. A network consisting of 58 acceleration stations recorded the earthquake within 8–217 km of the epicenter. Strong ground motion records from six significant well-recorded stations close to the epicenter have been simulated. These stations are installed in areas which experienced significant structural damage and humanity loss during the earthquake. The simulation is carried out using the dynamic corner frequency model of rupture propagation by extended fault simulation program (EXSIM). For this purpose, the propagation features of shear-wave including \( {Q}_s \) value, kappa value \( {k}_0 \), and soil amplification coefficients at each site are required. The kappa values are obtained from the slope of smoothed amplitude of Fourier spectra of acceleration at higher frequencies. The determined kappa values for vertical and horizontal components are 0.02 and 0.05 s, respectively. Furthermore, an anelastic attenuation parameter is derived from energy decay of a seismic wave by using continuous wavelet transform (CWT) for each station. The average frequency-dependent relation estimated for the region is \( Q=\left(122\pm 38\right){f}^{\left(1.40\pm 0.16\right)}. \) Moreover, the horizontal to vertical spectral ratio \( H/V \) is applied to estimate the site effects at stations. Spectral analysis of the data indicates that the best match between the observed and simulated spectra occurs for an average stress drop of 70 bars. Finally, the simulated and observed results are compared with pseudo acceleration spectra and peak ground motions. The comparison of time series spectra shows good agreement between the observed and the simulated waveforms at frequencies of engineering interest.     

A New Approach in Coal Mine Exploration Using Cosmic Ray Muons

Muon radiography is a technique that uses cosmic ray muons to image the interior of large scale geological structures. The muon absorption in matter is the most important parameter in cosmic ray muon radiography. Cosmic ray muon radiography is similar to X-ray radiography. The main aim in this survey is the simulation of the muon radiography for exploration of mines. So, the production source, tracking, and detection of cosmic ray muons were simulated by MCNPX code. For this purpose, the input data of the source card in MCNPX code were extracted from the muon energy spectrum at sea level. In addition, the other input data such as average density and thickness of layers that were used in this code are the measured data from Pabdana (Kerman, Iran) coal mines. The average thickness and density of these layers in the coal mines are from 2 to 4 m and 1.3 gr/c³, respectively. To increase the spatial resolution, a detector was placed inside the mountain. The results indicated that using this approach, the layers with minimum thickness about 2.5 m can be identified.     

A two-step wavelet-based regularization for linear inversion of geophysical data

Regularization methods are used to recover a unique and stable solution in ill-posed geophysical inverse problems. Due to the connection of homogeneous operators that arise in many geophysical inverse problems to the Fourier basis, for these operators classical regularization methods possess some limitations that one may try to circumvent by wavelet techniques.
In this paper, we introduce a two-step wavelet-based regularization method that combines classical regularization methods with wavelet transform to solve ill-posed linear inverse problems in geophysics. The power of the two-step wavelet-based regularization for linear inversion is twofold. First, regularization parameter choice is straightforward; it is obtained from a priori estimate of data variance. Second, in two-step wavelet-based regularization the basis can simultaneously diagonalize both the operator and the prior information about the model to be recovered. The latter is performed by wavelet-vaguelette decomposition using orthogonal symmetric fractional B-spline wavelets.
In the two-step wavelet-based regularization method, at the first step where fully classical tools are used, data is inverted for the Moore-Penrose solution of the problem, which is subsequently used as a preliminary input model for the second step. Also in this step, a model-independent estimate of data variance is made using nonparametric estimation and L-curve analysis. At the second step, wavelet-based regularization is used to partially recover the smoothness properties of the exact model from the oscillatory preliminary model.
We illustrated the efficiency of the method by applying on a synthetic vertical seismic profiling data. The results indicate that a simple non-linear operation of weighting and thresholding of wavelet coefficients can consistently outperform classical linear inverse methods.     

A stochastic model for optimal operation of inter-basin water allocation systems: a case study

This paper presents a new methodology for optimal operation of inter-basin water transfer systems by conjunctive use of surface water resources in water donor basin and groundwater resources in water receiving basin. To incorporate the streamflow uncertainty, an integrated stochastic dynamic programming (ISDP) model is developed. In the ISDP, the monthly inflow to the reservoir in the water donor basin, the water storage of the reservoir, and the water storage of the aquifer in the water receiving basin are considered as state variables. A water allocation optimization model is embedded in the main structure of ISDP and a new ensemble streamflow prediction model based on K-nearest-neighbourhood algorithm is also developed and linked to the ISDP. By using a new reoptimization process, the ISDP model provides monthly policies for water allocation to users in water donor and receiving basins. As water users can form a coalition to increase their benefits, several solution concepts in cooperative game theory, namely Nash–Harsanyi, Shapley, Nucleolus, Weak Nucleolus, Proportional Nucleolus, Separable Costs Remaining Benefits (SCRBs) and Minimum Costs Remaining Savings are utilized to determine the profit of each water user. In the last step, stakeholders make negotiation over these solution concepts using the Fallback bargaining theory to reach a unanimous agreement on the final distribution of the total benefit. The methodology is applied to an inter-basin water transfer project and the results show that the Shapley and SCRB solutions concepts can provide better distributions for the total benefit and the total benefit of water users is increased by a factor of 1.6 when they participate in a grand coalition.     

Nodal-based three-dimensional discontinuous deformation analysis (3-D DDA)

This paper presents a new numerical model that can add a finite element mesh into each block of the three-dimensional discontinuous deformation analysis (3-D DDA), originally developed by Gen-hua Shi. The main objectives of this research are to enhance DDA block’s deformability. Formulations of stiffness and force matrices in 3-D DDA with conventional Trilinear (8-node) and Serendipity (20-node) hexahedral isoparametric finite elements meshed block system due to elastic stress, initial stress, point load, body force, displacement constraints, inertia force, normal and shear contact forces are derived in detail for program coding. The program code for the Trilinear and Serendipity hexahedron elements have been developed, and it has been applied to some examples to show the advantages achieved when finite element is associated with 3-D DDA to handle problems under large displacements and deformations. Results calculated for the same models by use of the original 3-D DDA are far from the theoretical solutions while the results of new numerical model are quite good in agreement with theoretical solutions; however, for the Trilinear elements, more number of elements are needed.     

Stochastic nature of three dimensional bursting events and sediment entrainment in vortex chamber

In this study, three dimensional quadrant analysis of bursting process was used to recognize the susceptible regions for sediment entrainment and deposition at the bed of a vortex chamber. From the analysis, it was found that two dimensional quadrant analysis in unable to find the turbulent coherent structure of flow near the bed of the vortex chamber. Therefore, a new method based on three dimensional bursting process is introduced in this study to define the turbulent flow structure. Based on the new methodology in this study, the bursting event is divided into eight different cube zones according to three dimensional velocity fluctuations. It was realized that, four cube zones interactions are toward the central orifice of the vortex chamber and four cube zones interactions are toward the wall of the chamber and they are categorized as classes A and B, respectively. The results from the experiments showed that in class A, the internal sweep events (class IV-A) moves the settled sediment particles toward the central orifice of the chamber, whereas in class B the external sweep events (class IV-B) moves the settled sediment particles toward the external region of the chamber. Also the transition probabilities of the bursting events in 64 particular movements were determined. The result showed that stable organizations of each class of the events had highest transition probabilities whereas cross organizations had lowest transition probabilities. Additionally, an effort was made to find the average inclination angle of the three dimensional bursting events in each cube zone. The results showed that near the bed of the vortex chamber by increasing the tangential velocity toward the center of the chamber, the average inclination angle of the events in the cube zones decreased. Also, at the region where the sediment particles were deposited, the inclination angles had higher values.     

A fully coupled numerical modeling to investigate the role of rock thermo-mechanical properties on reservoir uplifting in steam assisted gravity drainage

One of the crucial consequences of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process is abnormal reservoir uplifting under thermal steam injection, which can significantly influence the reservoir rock deformation, specifically thin bed reservoirs and causes intensive failures and fractures into the cap rock formations. A thorough understanding of the influences of rock thermo-mechanical properties on reservoir uplifting plays an important role in preventing those aforementioned failures within design and optimization process in SAGD. In addition, coupling of reservoir porous medium and flowing of specific fluid with temperature as an additional degree of freedom with initial pore pressure and in-situ stress condition, are also very challenging parts of geomechanical coupled simulation which would be clearly explained. Thus, a fully coupled thermo-poro-elastic geomechanical model with finite element codes was performed in ABAQUS to investigate the role of rock thermo-mechanical parameters on reservoir vertical uplift during steam injection. It is clearly observed that, any increase in rock thermo-mechanical properties specifically rock’s thermal properties such as specific heat, thermal expansion, and formation’s thermal conductivity, have significant influences on reservoir uplift. So by coupling the temperature as an additional degree of freedom with the coupled pore-fluid stress and diffusion finite element model of SAGD process, the more realistic simulation will be conducted; hence, the errors related to not having heat as an additional degree of freedom will be diminished. In addition, Young’s modulus and specific heat are the rock thermo-mechanical parameters which have the maximum and minimum effects on the reservoir uplift, respectively.     

GIS-based bivariate statistical techniques for groundwater potential analysis (an example of Iran)

Groundwater potential analysis prepares better comprehension of hydrological settings of different regions. This study shows the potency of two GIS-based data driven bivariate techniques namely statistical index (SI) and Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) to analyze groundwater potential in Broujerd region of Iran. The research was done using 11 groundwater conditioning factors and 496 spring positions. Based on the ground water potential maps (GPMs) of SI and DST methods, 24.22% and 23.74% of the study area is covered by poor zone of groundwater potential, and 43.93% and 36.3% of Broujerd region is covered by good and very good potential zones, respectively. The validation of outcomes displayed that area under the curve (AUC) of SI and DST techniques are 81.23% and 79.41%, respectively, which shows SI method has slightly a better performance than the DST technique. Therefore, SI and DST methods are advantageous to analyze groundwater capacity and scrutinize the complicated relation between groundwater occurrence and groundwater conditioning factors, which permits investigation of both systemic and stochastic uncertainty. Finally, it can be realized that these techniques are very beneficial for groundwater potential analyzing and can be practical for water-resource management experts.     

Predicting the Building Stone Cutting Rate Based on Rock Properties and Device Pullback Amperage in Quarries Using M5P Model Tree

One of the key parameters that affect the selection of equipment and the cost estimation of dimension stone quarries is the rock cutting rate or production rate. In this study, the M5P tree algorithm is used to determine the relationship between the hard rock sawability and its factors especially the physical and mechanical characteristics of rock. To achieve the research goal, a variety of eleven types of hard dimension stone were selected and nine major physical and mechanical characteristics of rock including uniaxial compressive strength, Young’s modulus, Brazilian tensile strength, equivalent quarts content, grain size, Mohs hardness, point load test, density and P-wave velocity of these samples were evaluated. The cutting rate of diamond wire for all of the Workpiece was measured at different pullback amperage with a fully instrumented cutting platform in laboratory. All operational parameters of cutting process were entirely controlled. Thus, a database containing 99 datasets was provided and it has been used for analyses. The obtained results from the pruned and unpruned tree models showed a significant relationship between cutting rate and its factors. In the end, the results of M5P tree method were compared with statistical analyses (i.e., linear and nonlinear regression). The coefficient of determination be equal with 0.92, 0.86, 0.77 and 0.63 for unpruned tree, pruned tree, linear and nonlinear regression method respectively. This comparison showed that the both method of M5P tree technique have a better performance in predicting the cutting rate rather than the statistical regression methods.     

A note on strength-reduction factors for design of structures near earthquake faults

Strength-reduction factors are analyzed for simplified near-fault, fault-normal and fault-parallel strong-motion displacements. It is shown that the common design rules for selection of the strength-reduction factors are conservative and properly describe the reduction amplitudes near faults of strong earthquakes, for fault-normal pulses. However, for fault-parallel displacements, the same reduction factors are not conservative and should be changed. It is recommended that for design close to active faults, the strength-reduction factors for all components of motion should be constant for all periods and equal to (2μ−1)^1/2, where μ is ductility.