Simulating precipitation in the Northeast United States using a climate-informed K-nearest neighbour algorithm

Decadal prediction using climate models faces long-standing challenges. While global climate models may reproduce long-term shifts in climate due to external forcing, in the near term, they often fail to accurately simulate interannual climate variability, as well as seasonal variability, wet and dry spells, and persistence, which are essential for water resources management. We developed a new climate-informed K-nearest neighbour (K-NN)-based stochastic modelling approach to capture the long-term trend and variability while replicating intra-annual statistics. The climate-informed K-NN stochastic model utilizes historical data along with climate state information to provide improved simulations of weather for near-term regional projections. Daily precipitation and temperature simulations are based on analogue weather days that belong to years similar to the current year's climate state. The climate-informed K-NN stochastic model is tested using 53 weather stations in the Northeast United States with an evident monotonic trend in annual precipitation. The model is also compared to the original K-NN weather generator and ISIMIP-2b GFDL general circulation model bias-corrected output in a cross-validation mode. Results indicate that the climate-informed K-NN model provides improved simulations for dry and wet regimes, and better uncertainty bounds for annual average precipitation. The model also replicates the within-year rainfall statistics. For the 1961–1970 dry regime, the model captures annual average precipitation and the intra-annual coefficient of variation. For the 2005–2014 wet regime, the model replicates the monotonic trend and daily persistence in precipitation. These improved modelled precipitation time series can be used for accurately simulating near-term streamflow, which in turn can be used for short-term water resources planning and management.     

Assessing factors affecting drought,earthquake, and flood risk perception: empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - Understanding household disaster risk perception is crucial to formulate and apply disaster risk reduction strategies. Using survey data from 300 households from three highly...     

Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

Climatic Change - By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change...     

Simultaneous adoption of risk management strategies to manage the catastrophic risk of maize farmers in Bangladesh

GeoJournal - Risk and uncertainty are distinctive features of agricultural cultivation, which significantly affect the production and income. Risk management is an important way for farmers to...     

Sedimentological,Geochemical and Hydrogeochemical Studies of Alluvial Fans for Mineral and Environmental Purposes (Case Study of Southwestern Iran)

Lithology and Mineral Resources - The alluvial-fan sediments play a very important role in mineral reserves and underground water resources, though a comprehensive study on such sediments,...     

Investigating the effects of land use change on flood hydrograph using HEC-HMS hydrologic model (case study: Ekbatan Dam)

Natural Hazards - Hydrological modeling academic studies have focused on the response to human-caused land use changes. The effects of land use change on flood degree in the catchment basin of...     

Study on the Erodibility and Mechanical Resistance of Mulches Prepared from Micro Silica–Cement Mixtures

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Mulching is fastest strategy to control sand dune movement in arid and semiarid areas. In the present study the effect of micro silica- cement mixture was...     

A New Correlation to Predict Rock Mass Deformability Modulus Considering Loading Level of Dilatometer Tests

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - All numerical and analytical methods dealing with the calculating deformation of rock mass require deformation modulus (Df) which is measured by direct or...     

Ion acoustic solitary waves in plasma with nonthermal electron,positron and warm ion

In this paper, the characteristics of ion acoustic solitary waves are studied in plasmas containing warm ion fluid, non-thermally distributed electron and positron. We study the effects of non-thermal electrons and ion temperature on solitons by Pseudo-potential method and show that the parametric region where ion acoustic solitons can exist is modified. We also obtain linear dispersion relation by using the standard normal-modes analysis.