华北地区中强地震前地震活动演化指数YH值异常变化特征

通过对华北地区 1 6次中强地震的地震活动演化指数YH值异常特征的归类分析 ,认为YH值的变化特征能较好地综合反映中强地震孕震阶段地震活动时空强的演化规律 ,可以应用于中强地震发震时间的中短期预测     

IQQA-liver自动分析软件在肝脏体积精确测量方面的应用研究

目的：探讨IQQA-Liver自动分析软件在多排螺旋CT（MDCT）及核磁共振成像（MRI）检查中测量肝脏体积的准确性及重复性。方法：①对12例家兔行MDCT及MR（FIESTA、LAVA序列）检查,扫描所得的CT及MR图像传至IQQA-Liver肝脏CT影像解读分析系统测量兔肝体积。扫描完成后立即处死家兔,解剖后取得肝脏,使用排水法测量兔肝脏的实际体积（ALV）,对三种方法得到的兔肝体积进行对比评价。②重复性研究：半个月后对所有家兔及临床病例进行重复性的研究。结果：①MDCT、MR两个序列（FIESTA、LAVA）测量所得的兔肝体积分别为（126.4±35.8）cm³、（125.0±35.4）cm³、（125.8±35.7）cm³,排水法测得的兔肝真实体积为（126.6±36.4）cm³,MDCT、FIESTA、LAVA所测得的兔肝体积与实际兔肝体积具有明显的相关性（r值分别为0.997、0.997及0.998,P值均<0.05）,Bland-Altman图分析显示MDCT、FIESTA、LAVA与“金标准”排水法测量结果一致性较好。②2名操作者各自前后重复测量兔肝脏体积的组内相关系数ICC值分别为0.995和0.985;2名操作者间两次测量兔肝脏体积的组内相关系数ICC值分别为0.996和0.987。结论：CT与MR均能基于IQQA-Liver自动分析软件快速测得较为精确的肝脏体积,并具有较高重复性。     

1969年渤海Ms7.4地震发震断层的声学探测

发生于1969年的渤海Ms7.4地震是渤海海域惟一一个主震被现代仪器记录的大地震,对其发震断层的讨论争议颇多.2005～2008年,我们在主震震区进行了3个航次的高分辨率声学探测,获得了包括浅层单道地震、侧扫声纳以及CHIRP剖面等在内的数百公里综合地球物理观测资料.本文报道了对上述声学资料的研究结果.研究表明,在震区海底之下2～3 m发现了一条走向NE30°、长20 km、宽约3 km的微型凹陷带,地质时代为5000 a B.P.,沉积面的最大下凹幅度为1.5 m;在空间位置上微型凹陷带与BZ28断裂、余震活动分布基本一致,因此,微型凹陷带是BZ28断裂活动的结果,而A层底界的下凹变形则是1969年渤海7.4级地震活动的结果, BZ28断裂是该地震的发震断层.BZ28断裂呈NE30°走向,是郯庐断裂带的次级断裂,浅层地震剖面揭示其最新活动时间为全新世中晚期,根据地质时代以及断层的垂向位移量,计算得到BZ28断裂晚更新世以来的垂向活动速率约为0.05 mm/a,全新世为0.3 mm/a,具有活动强度增加的趋势.     

SENSITIVITY OF LANDFALLING TYPHOON STRUCTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO VARYING CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES

Typhoon KROSA in 2007 is simulated using GRAPES, a mesoscale numerical model, in which a two-parameter mixed-phase microphysics scheme is implanted. A series of numerical experiments are designed to test the sensitivity of landfalling typhoon structure and precipitation to varying cloud microphysics and latent heat release. It is found that typhoon track is sensitive to different microphysical processes and latent heat release. The cloud structures of simulated cyclones can be quite different with that of varying microphysical processes. Graupel particles play an important role in the formation of local heavy rainfall and the maintenance of spiral rainbands. Analysis reveals that the feedback of latent heat to dynamic fields can significantly change the content and distribution of cloud hydrometeors, thus having an impact on surface precipitation.     

Changes to the Natural Regional Boundaries in China During 1961-2007

Daily temperature data from 599 stations across China for the years 1961 to 2007 were used to analyze the changes in the natural regional boundaries.The results show that the accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ and its duration changed dramatically from the end of 1990s to the early 21st century.The amplitude of natu-ral regional boundaries was greater in the 21st century than it was in the 20th century.In the eastern region of China,the climatic zones were migrating generally northward,with the northern edge of the subtropical zone and the eastern section of the warm temperate zone showing an obvious northward shift of up to 1 3° of lati-tude.The climatic zones moved south in the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau,western Inner Mongolia,and some ar-eas of western Xinjiang,and slightly to the north in other parts of the western region.     

巢湖南淝河口黑水团区流速和溶解氧与Fe2+、S2-浓度的空间关联性

黑臭现象在我国东部地区浅水湖泊频繁发生,已经严重影响环湖地区的社会经济发展.厌氧环境和高浓度Fe~(2+)、S~(2-)是引起黑臭现象的必要条件.本文解析巢湖南淝河口区黑臭水团范围内Fe~(2+)、S~(2-)与DO、流速的分布特性;基于空间计量模型重点探讨了流速、DO和Fe~(2+)、S~(2-)分布的空间关联性.结果发现,水体流动在黑臭水团中主要有两个作用:使Fe~(2+)、S~(2-)和DO彼此产生空间相关性以及通过分散作用改变局部Fe~(2+)、S~(2-)浓度分布;同时流速通过增强复氧间接影响Fe~(2+)及S~(2-)总体浓度的作用较小.流速与Fe~(2+)、S~(2-)之间均满足线性空间滞后模型;而线性回归模型中流速对Fe~(2+)的影响低估了约7%,对S~(2-)的影响则低估了12%.     

中南半岛春季植被覆盖变化及其与ENSO的联系

利用归一化植被指数NDVI（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index）、气候资料以及环流场数据,探讨了中南半岛地区植被覆盖变化特征及其与ENSO（El Niño-Southern Oscillation）的联系。研究表明,降水是影响春季植被生长的主要因子,与NDVI呈显著的正相关关系;而温度、辐射与NDVI呈负相关关系。进一步分析表明,当前期冬季赤道中东太平洋海温异常偏暖（发生厄尔尼诺事件）时,中南半岛附近海平面气压偏高、850 hPa风场辐散,上升运动偏弱,不利于云和降水形成,而有利于太阳辐射增加和温度升高,降水减小和温度升高均抑制春季中南半岛植被生长;反之,当前期冬季发生拉尼娜事件时,有利于中南半岛植被生长。     

The interaction between organic phosphate ester and p53: An integrated experimental and in silico approach

Concerns have been raised in regards to the environmental impact of the more used organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs). In this study, to better understand the relationship between molecular structural features of OPFRs and binding affinity for the tumor suppressor p53, an integrated experimental and in silico approach was used. From docking analysis, hydrogen bonding and hydrophobic interactions were found to be the dominant interactions, which implied the binding affinities of the compounds. The binding constants of 5 OPFRs were determined by surface plasmon resonance technology (SPR). Based on the observed interactions, appropriate molecular structural parameters were adopted to develop a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model. The developed QSAR model had good robustness, predictive ability and mechanism interpretability. The interactions between the OPFRs and p53 (E_binding) and the partition ability of the OPFRs into the bio-phase are main factors governing the binding affinities.     

场地周期的确定方法综述

场地周期作为场地固有特性是评价场地条件的重要参数。本文在详细阐述场地周期基本概念的基础上将其区分为场地卓越周期和场地基本周期,并详细分析总结了这两种周期的不同确定方法。场地卓越周期是地震波在场地中传播幅值被明显放大频带对应的周期,主要是是利用地脉动或强震动记录通过频谱分析得出的,给出的是场地周期的范围,有时根据频谱曲线会无法识别场地卓越周期。场地基本周期是将场地假定为覆盖在均匀、各向同性线弹性基岩半空间上的水平成层均匀、各项同性的线弹性土层场地,无阻尼的情况下第一振型对应的周期。通过场地的物理参数(剪切波速或剪切模量,土层厚度和质量密度等)计算得出,计算方法包括解析法、数值法和简化法,实际应用中经常采用的方法是简化法。一般地,两种方法的确定结果不尽相同,在场地不太厚,场地土不太软的情况下,二者的确定结果相近。     

华北地区未来强震概率统计分析

应用泊松模型的极值分布对华北地区的地震活动趋势进行估计和分析，结果表明，2008年前华北地区发生6级以上地震的危险性较大；2005年地震活动短期内可能还会持续目前较弱的态势，但未来1～2年内华北地区地震活动很有可能明显增强。